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VolcanoWatch Weekly [26 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 26, 2009

FEWW Volcanic Forecast

On April 21, 2009 in Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts FEWW made the following forecast

FEWW Volcanic Forecast:

1. The Loyalty – New Hebrides  Arc Collision. Intense volcanic activity should be expected throughout 2009 and beyond along the New Hebrides arc, the Vanatu region (also to the north to include Solomon Island and Santa Cruz Island), possibly continued along the New Hebrides Trench (to include Matthew and Hunter Island). Volcanoes that are located in the above-described area include:

  • Savo (Solomon Island)
  • Tinakula (Santa Cruz Island – SW Pacific)
  • Suretamatai
  • Motlav
  • Gaua
  • Mere Lava
  • Aoba
  • Ambrym
  • Lopevi
  • Kuwae
  • North Vate
  • Traitor’s Head
  • Yasur
  • Eastern Gemini Seamount
  • Matthew Island
  • Hunter Island

2. Pacific Plate subduction beneath the Okhotsk Plate. Subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Okhotsk Plate continues to create Intense volcanism. Starting 2009, however, a much greaterthan the average number of volcanoes located on the Kuril Islands island arc, Kamchatka volcanic arc and Japan trench to the south may erupt with renewed intensity.

And the following on June 5, 2009, having first introduced Mt Kaba earlier on Weekly Volcano Watch: 16 April 2009

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast:

FEWW Moderators forecast  new volcanic activity/ unrest at 50 or more volcanoes throughout the rest of 2009.

List of the volcanoes to watch this year [and in 2010] includes:

Barcena (0.8), Socorro (0.8), Curacoa (0.99), Atitlán (0.65), Vesuvius (>0.6), Bazman (0.6), Mount Shasta (>0.5), Kaba (>0.5), Bandai (>0.5), Eastern Gemini Seamount or Mathew Island volcano (0.65), Fonualei (0.65), Mount Rainier (>0.5), Jan Mayen (>0.6), Thule (0.4), Sibayak (>0.5), Volcán Guallatiri (0.65), Taveuni (>0.4),  two or more volcanoes on the island of Hokkaido (0.65), E-san (0.7), Oshima-Oshima (0.7), Komaga-take (0.65)

SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for 14-20 October 2009 listed both  Kaba and Gaua Volcanoes as erupting:

On 13 October, Vanuatu Geohazards Observatory confirmed that Gaua’s Mount Garat was erupting based on fieldwork done by scientists during 3-7 October. Seismic records showed multiple explosions, and a gas flux measurement of 3,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide was detected on 3 October. The Alert Level was raised to 2 (on a scale of 0-5).

And

On 20 October, CVGHM reported that seismic activity from Kaba increased in August and remained elevated in September and October. Inflation was also detected. When weather permitted, diffuse white plumes were seen rising 25-50 m above the crater rim and drifting E. Based on the deformation and increased seismicity, CVGHN raised the Alert Level to 2 (on a scale of 1-4).

SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(14 October – 20 October 2009)

New activity/Unrest:

Ongoing Activity:

Related Links:

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

Other Related Links:

Recent Posts on Chaitén:

2 Responses to “VolcanoWatch Weekly [26 Oct 2009]”

  1. CM said

    New work by Italian geochemists seems to indicate that the current ground movement around one of the world’s most dangerous volcano systems may be due to gas pressure, and not because of a surge of volcanic magma. This work was recently presented at the Goldschmidt conference on 30 June 2016.
    Gas causing ground to rise near Bay of Naples volcano
    The Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields), just across the Bay of Naples from the famous Vesuvius volcano, is amongst the most dangerous volcanos on Earth. In the past it has been capable of a “VEI 7” eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 7, meaning that it has produced an explosive eruption even bigger than the famous Krakatoa eruption of 1883). However, this was around 40,000 years ago. The last eruption, “VEI 2” occurred in 1538 AD.

    Because of the geological instability in the area, the land in this area can rise and fall by several metres over just a few years, a phenomenon known as Bradyseism. The last few years have seen the ground in the area begin to rise again, with a 38 cm rise recorded since late 2005*. There have been worries that this may presage an eruption.

    The last serious geological unrest in the area was in 1982-84, which saw ground levels rise by up to 1.8m. Most scientists think that the movement in this period was caused by mixed magmatic- hydrothermal activity (although some recent papers in the geochemical literature have suggested a major role for hydrothermal processes supported by deep magmatic gases, with pressurised water causing the land to rise). On the other hand, consensus exists that the current activity is caused by molten magma movement and accumulation under the Campi – which carries a greater risk of an eruption. Now however, a group of Geochemists from Second University of Naples and the Vesuvius Observatory think that the consensus has got it exactly the wrong way round.
    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-07/gc-gcg071116.php

  2. […] VolcanoWatch Weekly [26 Oct 2009] [FEWW Forecasts] […]

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