Murphy’s law has no time vector!
Posted by feww on November 13, 2009
Nature Defaults on Hydroelectric Supply
Localize or face the consequences:
Brazil Power failure plunges its largest cities into darkness
The US, EU countries, China, Japan and other energy dinosaurs WILL experience similar disruptions…
Another Warning Shot Fired by Nature:
Your systems are too inflexible
Banking on the good side of nature. Itaipu Hydroelectric Dam. The world’s largest hydroelectric facility. Credit: Itaipu Binacional.
Remember the first time you heard the so-called Murphy’s Law?
“Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”
Murphy’s law has no time vector! It doesn’t tell you when things WILL go wrong, and it’s often quoted after things have already gone wrong. It does not incorporate the ‘observer effect.’ Nature is more organized than “Murphy” would have lead you to believe. Now hear this.
FEWW Amendment to Murphy’s Law:
If more things can go wrong they will go wrong about now!
… in the world’s major cities, hydroelectric dams, nuclear power plants, oil rigs, production and processing facilities, powerlines …
A name for this?
Blog Moderators call this phenomenon Secondary Interlude to Human-Induced Planetary Antiphase.
Previous Examples in recent times?
Repeated flooding in Manila, Philippines.
Examples to watch for in the Near future?
Watch out for disintegration or collapse of Cities, large-scale structures, bridges, tunnels, power plants… , e.g., collapse of China’s Three Gorges Dam in the next two to three years.
Other Examples?
More examples would be posted after the Moderators have evaluated the structures, geographical regions and physical locations.
Causes?
Earthquakes, Storms, Snowstorms, Extreme Rain Events (ERE), Drought and Deluge, Fatigue … Antiphase and all other human-induced and human-enhanced factors.
See also entry at
Major Blackout Plunges Brazil into Darkness
Related Links:
Fire Earth 
Mac said
Will it be sudden, or would there be warnings?
feww said
For anyone who’s waiting for “warnings” it would be pretty sudden!
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1blackarrow said
Some years ago when a bridge collapsed in the US I recall thinking along the abovementioned lines. One of the two exponential cycles mentioned in the Limits to Growth [Meadows et al] was that of investment and depreciation. All the while the economy is ‘growing’ [quantitatively] it is also dying at the same time. Just like populations there is a birth rate and a death rate of industrial output. When depreciation is greater than investment, the economy begins to slide at an exponential rate. In addition to this, as a system attains greater proportions, it requires more investment to maintain it. The problem of roads in ancient rome is one example of this. All capital has a life cycle and economists like Keynes theorised that this cycle was the reason behind what he termed the marginal efficiency of capital and hence the infamous business cycles. However when applied to social infrastructure and so on, depreciation in these assets can be very dangerous meaning more than a loss of production or a dip in share value!
1blackarrow said
[..1blackarrow…] Regarding the above matter – http://1blackarrow.wordpress.com/2010/01/30/signs-of-the-times/
feww said
Our Understanding:
The “first law” of nature (universe/cosmos) is DECAY.
The second law, which depends on the first, is REBIRTH.
Any system in conflict with the above won’t be able to survive.
See also:
http://edro.wordpress.com/2009/02/22/c-for-the-economys-carbon-cycle/
http://edro.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/earths-human-induced-antiphase/
1blackarrow said
Very interesting. regarding decay, this is in tune with entropy – it seems that birth and growth and organisation all require an external investment of energy. For example, photo synthesis and the sun – whose energy ultimately comes from gravity. All systems tend towards collapse without external investment of an energy source that is directly aimed at preventing disorder. The back garden is another example of this; weeds, death, dirt etc. require regular human investment to prevent DECAY.
feww said
Cross purposes!
Let’s say that DECAY is UNPREVENTABLE!
Therefore the system must incorporate the “second law” by gearing up for rebirth.