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Archive for December 9th, 2009

Ten Climate Change Lies, Myths and Misconceptions

Posted by feww on December 9, 2009

Climate Change Lie #10

Climategate: Courtesy of rent-a-scientist crowd at UK’s East Anglia University (UEA) who dabble on both sides of the fence

The new, fool the uninformed public disinformation go along the following lines:

What Climate Change? Warm weather anywhere? Ice melting? Drought and Deluge? When was the last time there was even heavy rain other than the Monsoon in India? El Niño was a once in a lifetime affair that occurred in the last century!

David Holland, an electrical engineer [graduated when the mains still carried DC current] saying that it was “like David versus Goliath” as he took on the rest of the British scientific community:

“These guys called climate scientists have not done any more physics or chemistry than I did. A lifetime in engineering gives you a very good antenna. It also cures people of any self belief they cannot be wrong. You clear up a lot of messes during a lifetime in engineering. I could be wrong on global warming – I know that – but the guys on the other side don’t believe they can ever be wrong.”

David Holland, the Lech Walesa of climate change denialland, is seeking prosecutions against some of Britain’s “most eminent academics” for allegedly holding back information in breach of disclosure laws. Photo: DAVID ROSE. Source: The Daily Telegraph, UK
. Image may be subject to copyright.

He’s right about one thing: Don’t buy a second-hand car from the British climatologist, economist, Cambridge physicists, Oxford wranglers, UEA hagglers…

Some of our UK-based colleagues had previously expressed their distrust of

  • British “climatologists” (starting with Lord Stern)
  • The University of East Anglia boffins, especially their climatologists and modelers
  • Some of the senior staff at Hadley Climate Research Unit

Sure enough in the time old James Bond tradition, a spy who came in from the cold, a true professional who was not commercially motivated:

  • Guessed that leading British scientists at the University of East Anglia were manipulating climate change data. [Who told him the boffins were on to something?]
  • Managed to hack the email accounts of two dozen scientists (hacker had nothing to do with the Virgin empire) at UEA. [Who told him how to break into the  UEA computer.]
  • Found incriminating evidence that Climate Change was a great hoax. [Who told him where to find exactly what he was looking for on the computer?]
  • Located a Russian server [somehow that was meant to lend more street cred] to host the stolen emails [And NO! Neither the British mega-business, nor the British govt agents played any part in that.]

Singlehandedly, the Lech Walesa—he was an electrical engineer, too—of climate change denialland, shot a big hole through the climate change theory, mortally wounding the discredited myth [sic.] As a UK blogger proudly put it:

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming!’

Conclusion: Climate Change Lie #10 is all about doing business as usual.

As Warren Buffett, the Sausage from Omaha, put it:

If the world were falling apart I’d still invest in companies.”

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Posted in Anthropogenic Global Warming, climategate, denialland, Global Warming, Hadley CRU | Tagged: , , , , | 5 Comments »

Strong Quake Strikes SE of the Loyalty Islands

Posted by feww on December 9, 2009

New Episodes of Intense Seismicity Before Year End Highly Probable

Earthquake Measuring Up to 6.7 Mw Strikes Southeast of the Loyalty Islands

Strong Earthquake Measuring up to Magnitude 6.7 struck 120 km west of Ile Hunter, Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia, at a depth of about 60km on December 09, 2009 at 09:46 UTC.

The earthquake occurred about 42 km NNW of the Matthew Island volcano. Since November 2008 at least a half dozen strong quakes measuring between 6.1 and 6.8Mw have struck close to the volcano.

Special Interest: Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts

10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,170°E

Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

Earthquake Details:

  • Magnitude:  [Maximum quake magnitude estimated at 6.7 Mw by FEWW]
  • GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
  • Region: Southeast of Loyalty Islands
  • Time: 2009-12-09 09:46:05.7 UTC
  • Epicenter: 170.96°E 22.24°S
  • Depth: 59 km
  • Status: manually revised

Historic Seismicity (Source: USGS/EHP)

Seismic Hazard Map (Source: USGS/EHP)

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Posted in earthquake forecast, hunter island, intense seismicity, Quake analysis, seismic hazard report | Tagged: , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Decadal Temp Avg Up by 74 pct on 1990s

Posted by feww on December 9, 2009

Average decadal temp rose by 74 percent compared with the 1990’s

Decadal temp average rose by 0.4ºC in the last decade (2000 – 2009) compared with 3 decades 1961 to 1990, while the 1990s decade was 0.23 degrees higher.

Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change
Click images to enlarge

Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. [This is an update of Fig. 1A in Hansen et al. (2006)] January-September (9 months) mean is used for 2009 data. Credit: NASA/GISS.

Annual Mean Temperature Change for Hemispheres

Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes for the northern (red) and southern (blue) hemispheres. Credit: NASA/GISS.

Annual Mean Temperature Change for Land and Ocean

Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes for the land (green) and ocean (purple). Credit: NASA/GISS.

Global Mean Surface Temperature vs. Year and Month

Diagram should be self-explanatory. Credit: NASA/GISS.

2009 Likely to Be Fifth Warmest Year  on Record

This year is set to be the fifth warmest, and this decade the hottest ever on record —WMO

WMO head Michel Jarraud, speaking in Copenhagen, said 2009 was likely to be the fifth warmest year on record, and the first decade of this century the hottest ever.  Referring to the world’s worst hotspots, he added that Australia had experienced its third warmest year since 1850, “with three exceptional heatwaves.”

“I could go on. There was the worst drought in five decades which affected millions of people in China, a poor monsoon season in India causing severe droughts, massive food shortages associated with a big drought in Kenya,” he said.

Jarraud also referred to extreme floods throughout the world, including the deluge  in Burkina Faso, which broke a 90-year record, as well as  the third lowest summer Arctic sea ice cover on record, marking the trend for the third consecutive year.

When will a new record be set?

1998 was the hottest year on record, which coincided with a powerful El Nino. 2009 saw a new El Nino developing.

“It’s getting warmer and warmer. The warming trend is increasing.” Jarraud said.  “Its just a matter of years before we break the [1998] record.”

“It’s difficult to say [when a new record will be set] because of the variability. The first time there will be a strong El Nino the temperature will be greater than before.”

“Jarraud rejected a ‘climategate’ row over leaked emails from Britain’s [rent-a-scientist] University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), which showed some scientists’ efforts to boost the credibility of climate change at the expense of skeptics.”

The WMO temperature analysis used two U.S. data sources, as well as the British CRU. “The three separately show almost identical results,” said Jarraud.

“The fact that the record for the hottest year has not been broken since 1998 has helped fuel arguments from a small minority of scientists that climate change may not be as severe as feared.” Reuters reported.

UK MetOffice Hadley Centre’s head, Vicky Pope said the temperatures had “climbed slightly” in the past decade. “There hasn’t been a cooling [since the 1998 record.]”

Analyzed on a decadal basis, the temperature rose by 0.4 degrees Celsius in the last decade (2000 – 2009) compared with the average in the three decades 1961 to 1990, while the 1990s decade was 0.23 degrees higher, according to Pope.

“Essentially what’s happened is we’ve gone into [a permanent?] El Niño,” she said.  [El Niño weather pattern can cause havoc in global weather system.]

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Posted in Climate Change, climategate, drought and deluge, extreme rain, record heat | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »