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US President and family leave the snowy continental US to the local mortals as they wing it to the warmth of Hawaii Volcanoes
Mr Barak Obama and family leave behind snowy Washington DC headed for warmer Hawaii. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.
Before leaving for Hawaii, however, he said in an interview with PBS Newshour:
“I think that people are justified in being disappointed about the outcome in Copenhagen.”
He added:
“What I said was essentially that rather than see a complete collapse in Copenhagen, in which nothing at all got done and would have been a huge backward step, at least we kind of held ground and there wasn’t too much backsliding from where we were.”
[Is he beginning to sound like his predecessor?]
How did you save the talks, Mr?
“At a point where there was about to be complete breakdown, and the prime minister of India was heading to the airport and the Chinese representatives were essentially skipping negotiations, and everybody’s screaming, what did happen was, cooler heads prevailed,” Obama said.
Prevailed to what end?
“We were able to at least agree on non-legally binding targets for all countries —not just the United States, not just Europe, but also for China and India, which, projecting forward, are going to be the world’s largest emitters,” he said.
Is a non-legally binding “agreement” worth the carbon paper it’s written on? Or was it achieved verbally?
Err….
Never mind your opinion as a president, please answer the question in your capacity as a “law professor.”
This space is left blank for Prof Obama’s answer: __________________________________________!
Earlier Sweden’s Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren called the UN Copenhagen climate negotiations, which the US and China had colluded to undermine, “a disaster for the world.”
“I call this a disaster, it doesn’t at all match the needs of the world …,” said Carlgren.
Explosive Eruption at Mayon Almost a Certainty: FEWW
Mayon in “high level of unrest”
Volcano’s daily SO2 emissions reach 9,000MT
“Mayon volcano is still in a high state of unrest and in the coming days it could still have an explosive eruption. If we look at the volcano’s history in 1984, the volcano calmed down but after a few days it erupted. ” —Ed Laguerta, resident volcanologist the Lignon Hill Observatory
“The number of quakes have lessened but now the quakes are of a different variety. What is becoming clear is that [Mayon] is getting clogged. That is when the lava is rising but cannot get out,” he added.
“The edifice looks inflated so we cannot say that the actual activity of Mayon has decreased.”
During the past 24-hr observation period, the state vulcanologists recorded:
Mt Mayon is clogged up. [Latest Information]
The edifice seems inflated. [Latest Information]
High levels of activity continued during the past 24-hours.
Volcano hazard warning stayed at stayed at level 4 which indicates a hazardous eruption could occur anytime.
33 explosions ejected off-white ash to heights of about 1km above the summit (observations subject to visibility)
26 rumbling sounds and 2 loud hisses detected at the Lignon Hill Observatory in Legaspi City
Elevated seismic activity produced 406 volcanic earthquakes.
142 rock fall events caused by detachment of lava fragments occurred near the upper slopes.
Fresh lava and rolling incandescent lava fragments continuously flowed at Bonga, Padang and Miisi gullie.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate for the report period reached a daily average of 8,993 MT. [HIGHEST amount reported since latest episode began.]
FEWW Comment: The latest information suggest an increase in the probability of [almost guaranteeing] explosive eruption(s) occurring at Mt Mayon.
The following Bulletin was released by The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) today:
Mayon Volcano Bulletin 13 released on 26 December 2009
Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) continued to exhibit a high level of activity during the past 24-hour observation period. Thirty three (33) ash explosions with dirty white to brownish ash columns that reached maximum heights of 1,000 m above the summit were observed during times of good visibility. Twenty six (26) rumbling and two (2) hissing sounds from the volcano were heard at the Lignon Hill Observatory in Legaspi City. Seismic activity remained elevated as the seismic network recorded a total of four hundred six (406) volcanic earthquakes. One hundred forty two (142) rock fall events related to detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes were also detected. Flowing red hot lava and rolling incandescent lava fragments were continuously observed at Bonga, Padang and Miisi gullies. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate remained high and was measured at an average of 8,993 tonnes per day (t/d) yesterday.
Alert Level 4 is hoisted over Mayon Volcano, meaning a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Thus, PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous explosive eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Mayon Volcano activity remains at high levels of intensity
Mayon Volcano spews ash as glowing lava cascades down its slope during a mild eruption, December 24, 2009. Credit: REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge.
During the past 24-hr observation period, the state vulcanologists observed and recorded:
96 ash explosions when visibility permitted.
Columns of “light brown to grayish” ash ejected to a height of 2 km.
125 booming and rumbling sounds detected at the Lignon Hill Observatory in Legaspi City.
Elevated seismic activity.
871 volcanic earthquakes.
98 rock fall events, “related to detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes.”
Pyroclastic flows moved down within 2 km from the crater.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission averaged at 2,738 tonnes/day.
Volcano hazard warning remains at alert level 4.
The following Bulletin was released by The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) today:
Mayon Volcano Bulletin 12 released on 25 December 2009
Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) continued to show an intense level of activity during the past 24-hour observation period. Ninety-six (96) ash explosions were observed during times of good visibility. These explosions produced light brown to grayish ash columns that reached heights of up to 2 km. One hundred twenty five (125) rumbling and booming sounds from the volcano were heard at the Lignon Hill Observatory in Legaspi City. Seismic activity remained elevated as the seismic network recorded a total of eight hundred seventy one (871) volcanic earthquakes. Ninety eight (98) rock fall events, related to detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes, were also detected. Three of these events were observed to have generated pyroclastic flows that moved down within 2 km from the crater. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate was high and was measured at an average of 2,738 tonnes/day yesterday.
Alert Level 4 remains hoisted over Mayon Volcano, meaning a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Thus, PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous explosive eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Mt Mayon’s Unrest Continues at High Levels of Intensity
Mayon Volcano in Legazpi city shoots up a column of ash into air during a small explosion December 24, 2009. The Philippines’ most active volcano could erupt explosively anytime. (Xinhua/Reuters Photo). Image may be subject to copyright.
State Vulcanologists record 815 volcanic earthquakes and harmonic tremors, many at maximum deflection.
Mayon lava fountains shoot up to 500m.
Mt Mayon unrest continues at high levels of intensity.
Incandescent lava fragments were ejected during several explosions which occurred last night.
20 Ash explosions, observed when visibility was good, ejected columns of “grayish to light brown” ash up to 1500 meters into air.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emissions remained high at an average daily rate of about 5,737 metric tons, yesterday.
124 booming and rumbling sounds were heard throughout the past 24 hours.
The following Bulletin by Phivolcs was released today:
Mayon Volcano Bulletin 11 released on 24 December 2009
Mayon Volcano’s (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) intense level of unrest continued to persist during the past observation period. Seismic activity remained elevated in number and size as the seismic network detected 815 volcanic earthquakes and harmonic tremors. Many of these volcanic earthquakes were recorded at maximum deflection. Twenty (20) ash explosions were observed during times of good visibility. These explosions produced grayish to light brown ash columns that reached height from 100 to 1500 meters above the summit before drifting towards the southwest by the prevailing northeast monsoon. Lava fountaining was observed at 2312 PM, 2314 PM, 2320 PM and 2332 PM with maximum height of 500 meters above the crater. Several explosions with ejected incandescent lava fragments were noted during night observations.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate remained high and was measured at an average of 5,737 tons per day (t/d) yesterday. One hundred twenty four (124) audible booming and rumbling sounds were intermittently heard for the past 24 hours. Red hot lava also continuously flowed down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies.
Alert Level 4 remains hoisted over Mayon Volcano, meaning a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Thus, PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous explosive eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Mt Mayon is believed to be in a strombolian phase (often occurs before a major eruption), say state vulcanologists.
Lava flow has reached 5.5 km from the summit.
There may be a series of eruptions instead of a single catastrophic explosion.
Magma movement continues to generate continuous tremors.
Albay residents who refuse to leave their properties may have to sign a waiver.
The following bulletin was issued by PHIVOLCS:
Mayon Volcano Bulletin 10
23 December 2009 – 7:00 AM [UTC + 8hrs]
Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) continued to show an intense level of activity during the past 24-hour observation period. Seismic activity remained elevated in number and size as the seismic network detected 1,051 volcanic earthquakes and continuously recorded harmonic tremors. Many of these volcanic earthquakes were recorded at maximum deflection. Sixty six (66) ash explosions were observed during times of good visibility. These explosions produced grayish to light brown ash columns that reached height from 100 to 1000 meters above the summit before drifting towards southwest.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate remained very high and was measured at an average of 6,737 tons per day (t/d) yesterday. Two hundred eighty (280) audible booming and rumbling sounds were intermittently heard for the past 24 hours. Red hot lava also continuously flowed down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies.
Alert Level 4 remains hoisted over Mayon Volcano, meaning a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Thus, PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous explosive eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Mayon Volcano (13.2576ºN, 123.6856ºE)
Mt Mayon Eruption: The Human Angle
Filipino children living near the foot of Mt Mayon pray before being evacuated, as an imminent eruption looms. Photo; AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.
Mayon Volcano Update from Phivolcs Bulletin 9 – Issued 22 December 2009 7:00 AM Local Time
Intense level of activity detected during the past 24-hour observation period
A total of 1,266 volcanic earthquakes were recorded with seismic activity remaining elevated both in frequency and amplitude.
“Many of these volcanic earthquakes were recorded at maximum deflection and have continuously occurred since 12:21 PM, 20 December 2009. Harmonic tremors were still continuously being recorded.” Phivolcs reported.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate averaged at about 6,529 tons per day (t/d).
State vulcanologists were unable to make visual observations due to theavy clouds that shrouded the upper and middle slopes of mayon for most of the last 25 hours.
“However, an intensified crater glow was observed during a short cloud break last night. Audible booming and rumbling sounds were still intermittently heard for the past 24 hours. Red hot lava also continuously flowed down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. The lava front has reached about 5 kilometers downslope from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully.”
Other remarks:
“Alert Level 4 is hoisted over Mayon Volcano, meaning a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Thus, PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous explosive eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.”
Other Reports
As the volcano continued to eject ash into the air early Tuesday morning, eye-witness reports said ashfall had covered parts of three towns in Albay province: Guinobatan, Camalig and Polangui towns in the Mayon’s southern sector.
Some of the residents in the area have been issued with face masks, others including the residents in Daep have been told to cover their faces with handkerchiefs, or pieces of cloth.
Lava cascades down the slopes of Mayon volcano Sunday Dec. 20, 2009 in Legazpi city, Albay province, about 500 kilometers southeast of Manila, Philippines. Tens of thousands residents living around the slopes of Mayon are now housed in evacuation centers and most likely will spend Christmas away from their homes as the country’s most active volcano became restive a week ago. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.
Date: 21 December 2009 at 7:00AM Local Time [20-12-09 at 23:00UTC]
Mayon Volcano’s (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) activity escalated during the past 24-hour observation period. Seismic activity dramatically increased in number and size. A total of 1,942 volcanic earthquakes was detected by the seismic network. Many of these volcanic earthquakes were recorded at maximum deflection and continually occurred beginning at 1221H yesterday. Harmonic tremors were also continuously recorded.
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate remained very high at 6,089 tonnes per day (t/d). Audible booming and rumbling sounds were first reported in the eastern flank of the volcano at about 1455H then occasionally occurred beginning 2200H last night. Intensified crater glow and rolling down of incandescent lava fragments from the crater was also persistent. Red hot lava also continuously flowed down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. Lava fountains rising approximately 200 meters above the crater were observed at 2007H, 2008H and 2018H. The lava front has now reached about 5 kilometers downslope from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gullies.
Alert Level 4 is hoisted over Mayon Volcano, meaning a hazardous eruption is possible within days. Thus, PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8 km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7 km on the northern sector be strictly observed. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous explosive eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
State volcanologist in the Philippines raised the Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) alert status to level on Sunday at 14:30 local time, which means they expect a major eruption within days.
PHIVOLCS reported Sunday that the advancing lava flow had traveled about 4.5 kilometers from the crater along Bonga-Buyuan Gully. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission had increased from 2,034 MT per day (t/d) to 7,024 t/d.
Their seismic network had recorded a total of two hundred twenty two (222) volcanic quakes and tremors in the previous 24 hours, they said.
According to other reports rumbling sounds were heard in Santa Misericordia village near Santo Domingo town, about 8.5 km to the east of Mt Mayon.
More than 250 tremors recorded at Mt Mayon, a sign that the volcano may be about to explode.
About 4 dozen minor explosions have occurred at the volcano, accompanied by off-white columns of smoke, gasses and ash that were ejected to a height of about 1,000 meters above the summit, according to the Phivolcs’ latest bulletin.
Below are some of the highlights of latest reports on Mayon:
Mayon’s activity has intensified since Friday.
Emissions of sulfur dioxide have exceeded 2,000 tons per day.
The lava flow has reached about 4 km from the summit crater along the Bonga Gully, generating secondary pyroclastic flows.
As the buildup of new lava on the cone continues to increase, the additional weight would cause the edifice to collapse, while the buildup of pressure inside the volcano would most probably result in a major explosion.
Based on the the available evidence, Fire Earth Moderators believe there’s a 76 percent chance that Mt Mayon could explode before the year’s end.
If the volcano explodes, more lava would flow out of the crater.
Phivolcs officials are contemplating on raising the alert level at Mayon Volcano to Level 4, which would indicate “hazardous volcanic eruption” is imminent.
Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management officials said more than 40,000 people or about 8,500 families from 30 villages had already been evacuated to 24 temporary shelters by noon Saturday.
The regional govt in Albay may evacuate an additional 70,000 villagers, in case heavy rains in the area threaten a repeat 2006 nightmare in which more than 1,000 perished after typhoon Durian triggered mudslides of volcanic ash on November 30, which buried several villages near the foot of the mountain.
Many of the villagers who have been evacuated reportedly sneak back into their villages to look after their animals and ready-to-harvest seasonal crops.
After an explosive eruption, the “perfect cone” could disappear partially or altogether
A major hazardous eruption could lead to large explosions destroying Mt Mayon. The erupting volcano could empty its magma chamber causing the much-admired “perfect cone” edifice to collapse into its depleted reservoir, and forming a caldera.
BEFORE: Mayon volcano, located in a coconut-growing region of the central Philippines, is famed for its near-perfect cone shape. Mt Mayon. Credit: Lozaphilippines. Image may be subject to copyright.
AFTER: If Mt Mayon edifice collapses into the magma chamber, the after image may look like the above. [The snow cover is less likely right now.] Photo shows Aniakchak Caldera in the Aleutian Range, Alaska. This 10 km diameter caldera formed about 3,450 years ago. Many smaller cinder cones have formed within the caldera. Credit: USGS
Mayon UPDATE:
As Mayon Volcano continued to eject 500-m plumes of ash into air, spewing lava down its slopes for a third day, and burning rocks, mud and everything else in its path, PHIVOLCS vulcanologists said they expected a major explosive eruption soon.
Up to 50,000 people have been or are about to be evacuated from Mayon’s danger zones and neighboring areas, Philippines Defense Secretary said in a news conference.
Many villagers are reluctant to live because its seasonal harvest time for their crops. They are staying put despite th eregional government threat of martial law.
PHIVOLCS, whose computer network is off the internet when there’s a crisis, as is the case right now, was reported ass saying it had recorded at least five minor explosions at the volcano on Wednesday, and 80 “high frequency quakes” in the last 24 hours.
Mayon at a ‘high level of unrest’ may experience more dangerous explosions
Mt Mayon Spews Lava. Photo: Reuters. Image may be subject to copyright.
Mayon 5-level hazard alert raised to level 3 Tuesday after Mayon ejected ash and spewed lava.
According to Phivolcs, “Alert level 3 condition signifies magma is near the top of the crater and incandescent materials are now detaching. Mayon volcano is now at a ‘high level of unrest’ and may have more dangerous explosions.”
Quick fact about the latest episode of activity at Mt Mayon:
Phivolcs Level 3 alert means an eruption is expected within days to weeks [Level 4 means an eruption is imminent, while level 5 means eruption is in progress.]
Albay Governor Jose Salceda has declared “a state of imminent disaster” throughout the province, to allow the provincial government to access disaster funds needed to evacuate residents in Mayon’s danger zones.
Phivolcs scientist, Alex Baloloy, said, “a full blown eruption is expected to take place within weeks to days.”
Baloloy said lava had cascaded down about 3 km from the crater summit of the volcano.
By Monday Mayon had emitted about 800 tons of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas.
The air in the region has been described as “hot and irritable” and “smelly.”
After 23 volcanic quakes on Monday, 5 ash explosions occurred at the volcano generating a mix of brownish and grayish ash cloud.
Phivolcs said it had recorded 78 volcanic earthquakes in the last 24 hours
Philippines disaster management officials have now evacuated about 50,000 people from Tabaco City and the towns of Malipot, Daraga, Camalig, Guinobatan and Ligao near Mt Mayon, aiming for a “zero-casualty situation.”
Schoolrooms within an 8-km radius of Mt Mayon have been suspended and used as evacuation shelters. [Let’s hope the schools are better built in the Philippines than they are in China.]
Mayon has experienced more than 50 eruption in 400 years.
The first recorded major eruption occurred in 1616.
The most voluminous lava flow occurred in the 1766 eruption.
Mayon’s most destructive eruption occurred on February 1, 1814. The volcano bombarded the town of Cagsa with tephra, burying all but the bell tower of the town’s church in about 9 m of ash. As many as 2,300 of Albay residents may have perished in the volcano’s deadliest eruption to date.
Mayon erupted continuously for 7 days starting June 23, 1897. The village of Bacacay was buried in 15 m of lava. About 500 villagers were killed in the aftermath.
Fire Earth Moderators believe more volcanic activities at other Philippines volcanoes are highly probable in the near future. The volcanoes located on the island on Mindanao are particularly liable to erupt in the next 12 to 36 months.
The moderators also believe a large eruption may occur at Taal volcano. For other related forecast, see links below and search blog contents.
Mayon, Philippines most active volcano, oozes lava and ejects plumes of ash into the air
The Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, PHIVOLCS, raised the five-step alert to 3 after increased activity at Mayon volcano.
The authorities have evacuated thousands of residents from the 6-km (4 miles) permanent danger zone, which is now declared a prohibited area.
About 50,000 people live in an 8km (5 mile) radius of the mountain.
Lava cascades down the slopes of Mayon volcano in Legazpi city, Albay province, Monday Dec. 14, 2009. (AP Photo/Nelson Salting). Image may be subject to copyright.
About 30,000 people were evacuated from the foot of Mt Mayon after the volcano spewed ash and lava in Albay province, the Philippines. Photo:AFP. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge.
Magma had been steadily rising at Mayon since late November and finally oozed out of the crater late Monday, and the activity at the volcano is expected to intensify, said PHILVOC.
If magma continues to push up the crater at a steady rate there would be lava flows, and “the possibility of an explosion.” PHILVOC reported.
Major Volcanoes of the Philippines Location Map. Click image to enlarge.
The 2467-meter Mayon Volcano is a stratovolcano [it is renowned for its almost perfectly conical shape] islocated about 15 kilometres northwest of Legazpi City [about 500 kilometers south of the capital, Manila,] in the province of Albay, Bicol Region, on the island of Luzon, in the Philippines.
Mayon is one of the 22 or so active volcanoes in the Philippines, and has caused the deaths of thousands of people and devastated several towns and villages in three major eruptions since its 1814. In 2006, after several eruptions, typhoon Durian triggered mudslides of volcanic ash on November 30, which buried several villages near the foot of the mountain, killing about 1,000 people.
Fire Earth Moderators believe more volcanic activities at other Philippines volcanoes are highly probable in the near future. The volcanoes located on the island on Mindanao are particularly liable to erupt in the next 12 to 36 months.
The moderators also believe a large eruption may occur at Taal volcano. For other related forecast, see links below and search blog contents.
Fire Earth 