ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 25 January 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.
Click image to enlarge.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and eastern Atlantic Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Click image to enlarge.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From late November to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across the U.S. and southern Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since early January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has strengthened over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northern and western U.S. Troughs and below-average temperatures have prevailed over the southeastern U.S. This recent pattern is typical of ElNiño.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Related Links:
- Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
- What Florida Might Look Like in 2014
- SE Australia Toasted Brown
- UK Flooding
- Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
- El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
- Recognizing El Niño
- El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
- TAO Diagrams
- El Niño Forecasts
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