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El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 26, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  25 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks


During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.
Click image to enlarge.

Global SST Departures (°C)


During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and eastern Atlantic Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.


Click image to enlarge.


Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days

From late November to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across the U.S. and southern Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since early January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has strengthened over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northern and western U.S. Troughs and below-average temperatures have prevailed over the southeastern U.S. This recent pattern is typical of ElNiño.


Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Summary:

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


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