El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  25 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.4ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.
Click image to enlarge.

Global SST Departures (°C)

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and eastern Atlantic Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Click image to enlarge.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days

From late November to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across the U.S. and southern Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since early January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has strengthened over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northern and western U.S. Troughs and below-average temperatures have prevailed over the southeastern U.S. This recent pattern is typical of ElNiño.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

• Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
• What Florida Might Look Like in 2014
• SE Australia Toasted Brown
• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Weekly Update [18 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [11 Jan 2010]

• El Niño Weekly Update [4 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [28 Dec 2009]
• El Niño Weekly Update [21 Dec 2009]
• El Niño Weekly Update [7 Dec 2009]
• El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]
• El Niño [Main Page and Links Archive]