Cyclone PAT (TC 14P) Update 2 (10 Feb)

Cyclone PAT Has Intensified to a Cat 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone PAT (TC14P) IR NHC Enhancement Satellite image. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

TC PAT Details

• Time/Date: 10 February 2010 –  09:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 18.6ºS, 159.8ºW
• Sustained Movement: 200  degrees (?)
  
• Forward speed: 15 km/hr (~ 8 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone PAT has been tracking  SSW over the past 6 hours. (?)
• The system has developed a 20-km eye.
• The system is expected to reach a peak intensity of about 185 km/h (~ 100 kt).
  

Cyclone PAT could cause severe damage to the island of Rarotonga, even if it remains within its current forecast track.

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 180 km (~ 97 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 220 km/hr (~ 120 kt)
• Cyclone PAT is currently a Category 3A  Hurricane
  

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 6m (18 ft) (?)
  
• Location: PAT was located about 285 km (~ 155 NM) north of Rarotonga
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Cyclone PAT forecast track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Cyclone PAT – V/IR Satellite image. Click image to enter CIMSS Portal.

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC) Version 1. Click images to enlarge.

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Infrared (MIMIC-IR) Version 1

Related Links:

• Cyclone PAT (TC 14P) Update 1 (10 Feb)
• Cyclone PAT Revving Up in S Pacific

Calif Rainstorm, Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm Update

Southern California Buffeted by another Major Rainstorm

Another powerful rainstorm buffeted Southern California yesterday afternoon local time triggering flash-flood warnings and more evacuations in the Sierra Madre area.

The storm was accompanied by lightening, thunder storms,  snow and hail and in both the Cajon Pass and the Grapevine. “The snow level was expected to drop below 4,000 feet this evening.” LA Times reported.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a flash-flood warning for foothill areas scorthched in the Station fire. NWS was reported as saying that “trained weather spotters had recorded very heavy rainfall and hail around La Cañada Flintridge.”

More mudslide in the foothill communities are expected.

National Weather Service Radar Mosaic Loop. Pacific Southwest Sector

Click image to enlarge.

Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm Update

• The second blizzard in less than a week has struck the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.
• Snowfall intensity is increasing
• Up to 41cm (16 inches) of snow expected in the region.
• Federal government offices are closed Wednesday, the third day this week.
• No bus services in the Washington DC area.
• Only limited Metrorail system (underground) trains will operate on Wednesday.
• Airlines in th eregion have grounded all flight for 24 hours.
• Philadelphia region is set to break its record for winter snow of  166.4cm (65.5) which was set in winter 1995-96. The region has so far received 143cm (56.2 inches) and is expecting up to  46cm (18 inches) by Wednesday night.
• The storm pushed into New York metropolitan area, prompting the Mayor to  close the schools on Wednesday.
• As of posting, public schools in all major cities along the Eastern Seaboard including Baltimore and Maryland to Boston and Philadelphia have also closed.

• Metro Area Winter Storm Warning for Wednesday [map]

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic. Northeast sector.

Click image to enlarge.

Image of the Day:

Knock, Knock! Who is there?

It’s Mud, Mudslide making a forceful entry! A resident carts away mud out of a home on Manistee Drive, one of the streets hardest hit by Saturday’s early-morning mudslides. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times / February 8, 2010). Image may be subject to copyright.

• LA Times Photo Gallery:  Storms pound the Southland

Related Links:

• 10 Facts on Climate Change
• More Rain in the West, Snow in the East
• Snowstorm Update: Enjoyed the snowball fight?
• Humongous Snowstorm Paralyzes Eastern U.S.
• Snow covers 70 pct of the U.S.

• Phil says ’six more weeks of winter’
• 2010 Disaster Calender – January
• The Storms Attack on California
• California: Powerful new storm sails ashore
• Transitory Impact of AO is the ‘Good News’

• December Snowstorm Only a Cat 3 on NESIS Scale
• State of Emergency in Oklahoma, S. Dakota, Texas
• ‘Humongous’ storm spreads across the US
• Winter Officially Starts Today!
• Deadly Winter Storm Paralyzes United States

• Carmageddon: Nature’s Dislike for Things on Wheels

El Niño Weekly Update [8 February 2010]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  8 February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Click images to enlarge

From December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since mid January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has become established over the eastern Pacific. Overmuch of N. America, strong ridging over Canada has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the contiguous U.S. This recent pattern is typical of El Niño.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

• Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
• What Florida Might Look Like in 2014
• SE Australia Toasted Brown
• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

• El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [18 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [11 Jan 2010]

• El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

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Cyclone PAT (TC 14P) Update 1 (10 Feb)

Where Shall I Go Next? Avarua is on the Way!

Cyclone PAT Tracks South on Open Waters, For Now

Tropical Cyclone PAT – IR NHC Enhanced Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS – Date/time – Feb 10, 2010 at 00:01UTC. Click image to enter CIMSS portal.

TC PAT Details

• Time/Date: 10 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.9ºS, 159.1ºW
• Sustained Movement: 190  degrees
• Forward speed: 13 km/hr (~ 7 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone PAT has been tracking  southward over the past 6 hours.

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 143 km (~ 77 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 167 km/hr (~ 90 kt)
• Cyclone PAT is currently a Category 1 Hurricane
  

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 5.7m (17 ft)
• Location: PAT was located about 510 km (~ 275 NM) north of Rarotonga
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Related Links:

• Cyclone PAT Revving Up in S Pacific