ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 22 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (oC) for the Last Four Weeks
- Weeks•During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have extended from 170°E eastward to the South American coast.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the central Pacific and increased in the extreme eastern Pacific
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
- In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) indicates another downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave is increasing temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. Since mid January,the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northwestern U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the eastern and central United States.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
- The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Related Links:
- Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
- What Florida Might Look Like in 2014
- SE Australia Toasted Brown
- UK Flooding
- Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
- El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
- Recognizing El Niño
- El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
- TAO Diagrams
- El Niño Forecasts
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño Weekly Update [15 February 2010]
- El Niño Weekly Update [8 February 2010]
- El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]
- El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
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