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Oil Peak 2014?

Posted by feww on March 11, 2010

Kuwaiti researchers predict world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014.

Oil peak is the point where oil production, having reached a maximum, declines. “Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.”


The world’s crude oil production, which comes from sources like this oil field, may peak a decade earlier than some scientists had predicted. Crdit : iStock

“The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world’s oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.” American Chemical Society Public Release said.

Related Information: Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model

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