TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13

Don’t Name Your Kids after Cyclones!

What if in your life time climate change spawned ‘never-ending’ cyclones … storms that waxed and waned as they crisscrossed the planet, but never dissipated … cyclones that  spawned other cyclones on the warm ocean waters, each time they passed near the point of their inception, a place near you …

It’s not theoretically inconceivable … you may yet drive the planet to the edge …

Where is Tomas Holidaying?

On its projected path, Tomas could cause unimaginable damage to the Main Fiji Islands. IF the cyclone were to dump its full load of precipitation on Fiji, it would submerge the two main isles under 6 feet of water.

(L to R) TC ULUI (TC 20P) and TC TOMAS  (TC 19P). Source: MTSAT Easter Sector  (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.

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Cyclone TOMAS Current Projected Path Takes it Right through Fiji Islands. Source: JTWC

AIRS image on March 11 at 20:10 UTC  (3:10 p.m. ET) showed a developing storm with a large cluster of high,  cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around Tomas’ center. Source: NASA/JPL

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 13 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  11.7S 178.1W
• Max Sustained Winds:  ~ 120km/hr (65 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 150km/hr ( 80 kts)
• Movement: 230 degrees
• Forward Speed:  ~ 10km/hr (06 kts)
• Location: 890km  (440 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: High ocean heat content and strong outflow will help Tomas to intensify steadily. Tomas could reach Category 4A, possibly as high as Cat 4c,  strength on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
  Tomas has “tightly-wrapped convective banding around a well-defined low-level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates TC 19P is just to the south of an anticyclone that is enhancing excellent equatorward outflow,” JTWC said.
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.

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Cyclone ULUI: The Loitering Devil on the Deep Blue Sea

TC ULUI. Source MTSAT (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.

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Forecast Details on March 13 at 06:00UTC

• Position: 13.9S 163.3E
• Max Sustaind Winds: ~ 110 km/hr (~ 60 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 140km/hr (~ 75 kts)
• Movement: 290 degrees
• Forward Speed:  ~5km/hr (~ 3 kts)
• Location: About 195km (105 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.

Infrared Image of Ului’s Cold T-storms

An AIRS image on March 12 at 9:17 a.m. ET showed a well-developed storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Storm Ului. Source: NASA

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale