Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15

TOMAS a Cat 3B hurricane, still intensifying; ULUI weakened to a Cat 3C

In the last 24 hours, Cyclone TOMAS has grown into a Cat 3B Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is still intensifying.  ULUI has weakened from a super cyclone force to a Cat 3C hurricane in the same period.

A very low probability of increased interaction exists between the two  systems. If the odds were to improve, whereby pinwheeling occurred between the two cyclones, TOMAS could change track, moving westward, then wobbling close to, around, or over the Fiji islands for a much longer period than anticipated.

Cyclone TOMAS. Latest GOES Image as of posting. (GOES Sat. NOAA). Click image to enlarge.

(L to R) Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS. MTSAT Colorized IR Image (NOAA).  Click image to enlarge.

• Animate the above image
  

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  15.6S 179.4W
• Max Sustained Winds :  ~ 195km/hr (105 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 240km/hr ( 130 kts)
• Movement: Southwestward
• Forward Speed:  5km/hr (~ 03 kts)
• Location: 500km  (270 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: TOMAS is a Category 3B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 – 48 hours until it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
• Comment: TOMAS is expected to transition to an extratropical system in 96 to 120 hours.

Cyclone TOMAS: Latest forecast track. Source: JTWC. [Nature’s acute geometry, or wishful thinking?]

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 12.9S 159.2E
• Max Sustained Winds:  205 km/hr (~ 110 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 270km/hr (~ 145 kts)
• Movement:  West
• Forward Speed:  ~ 12 km/hr ( 7 kts)
• Location: About 695km (375 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
• Maximum significant wave height: 10m (30 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
• Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 96 to 120 hours.

Cyclone ULUI: Latest projected path.  Source: JTWC.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.

MTSAT – IR Image

MTSAT – Colorized IR Image

MTSAT – Visible Image

• Water Vapor Loop

Related Links:

• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale