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Archive for March 30th, 2010

El Niño Update [29 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  29 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.0ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures  (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave
  • Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Click images to enlarge.





Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
  • The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persists into the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 6 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño update, El Niño update MARCH 2010, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Oil Giant Total Loses Appeal in Oil Spill Case

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

Total’s Guilty Verdict in Massive Oil Pollution Upheld by French Court

Total, the French oil giant, lost an appeal today to overturn a court ruling that found the company guilty of negligence for the sinking of oil tanker Erika, which spilled 20,000-ton oil off the French Atlantic coast  in 1999.


Maltese-registered oil tanker Erika, photographed from a French Navy plane,  sinks (December 13, 1999). The rusty oil tanker broke in two in violent seas off the Brittany coast, western France, releasing about 22,000 tons of crude oil into the Atlantic. Photo: French Navy. Click image to enlarge.

Appeals court in Paris upheld an earlier conviction and a fine of 375,000 euros against the company.

Erika, a 25-year-old oil tanker, broke in two on December 12, 1999, polluting 400 km of France’s Atlantic coastline. The oil spill which killed or injured about a third of a million birds, took more than three months to clean up.

In 2008, following “a seven-year investigation and complex trial that lifted the lid on the murky world of offshore-registered shipping,” a criminal court in Paris ruled that Total was responsible for sinking of Erika, an aging, rusty oil tanker,  and ordered the company to pay several million euros in damages.


The impact of Total negligence was long-lasting. Photo: Marcel Mochet/AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

“Total, which chartered the rusting tanker that split into two off the Brittany coast, belching out a black toxic wave, was found guilty of negligence and fined €375,000 ($500,000). It was also ordered to pay a share of nearly €200m in damages to civil parties, including the French state. The Italian certification company that declared the vessel seaworthy, and the ship’s owner and manager, were also held responsible.” A report said.

“The courts decision establishes a legal precedent by recognizing that polluters can be held responsible for damage they cause to the environment.” RFI said.

The French Judge Joseph Valantin reportedly said Total had “committed an error of negligence that is linked to the sinking” of the Erika and it was as a “direct consequence of the serious rust corrosion” caused by “insufficient maintenance of the ship.”

Background Summary:

Erika slowly sank in the Bay of Biscay about 65 km off the coast of western France , spilling a massive oil slick of 20,000 tons of toxic crude into the Atlantic. About two weeks later, the oil began covering the shore, killing up to 200,000 birds and injuring more than 100,000 others. “Locals described a coating of black goo ‘like thick chewing gum,’  sometimes 30cm (12in) thick on beaches. Seafood was banned, fishing was suspended and volunteers rushed to try to clean the birds that were suffocating in what environmentalists called a ‘black tide.’  Some cleaned beaches were blackened again overnight as fresh oil washed in.” A report said.

“Some 270,000 tonnes of waste, made up of fuel oil, seawater, sand and stones, had to be treated in the Erika cleanup operation. Tens of thousands of sea birds usually wintered on the affected stretch of Atlantic coast and vast damage was caused to shellfish farms and fishing.”

Related Links:

FEWW Links:

Posted in big oil, coast of Brittany, Judge Joseph Valantin, oil spill | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

‘Google Civilization’ Collapsing from Disinformation

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

Suppression of evolution through disinformation

When will the combined impact of the following factors cause the collapse of Google-cum-Facebook civilization?

  • Pillage of natural resources
  • Hyperactivity by energy dinosaurs,
  • Climate change
  • Spread of disease
  • Drought and deluge
  • Food shortages
  • Empire-building wars
  • Suppression of evolution through disinformation
  • Capitalism
  • Exponential growth economy
  • Other mechanisms

As for the Angkor civilization …

The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EICU) believes they may have the answer to at least one part of that question. Drought and deluge seem to have driven the ancient Khmer civilization to collapse.

Kudos to EICU for identifying at least one of the probable causes of collapse of the ancient Khmer Empire. And we are convinced they can do a lot more to explore  the role of the above-mentioned factors in the looming collapse.

The following is a public release by the EICU:

Did climate influence Angkor’s collapse?

Evidence suggests changing environment can bring down a civilization

Decades of drought, interspersed with intense monsoon rains, may have helped bring about the fall of Cambodia’s ancient Khmer civilization at Angkor nearly 600 years ago, according to an analysis of tree rings, archeological remains and other evidence. The study, published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, may also shed light on what drives—and disrupts—the rainy season across much of Asia, which waters crops for nearly half the world’s population.


The temple of Angkor Wat, Cambodia (aerial photo). The religious complex of Angkor Wat was center of a civilization that depended for irrigation on a vast network of canals, embankments and reservoirs. Credit: Charles J Sharp

Historians have offered various explanations for the fall of an empire that stretched across much of Southeast Asia between the 9th and 14th centuries, from deforestation to conflict with rival kingdoms. But the new study offers the strongest evidence yet that two severe droughts, punctuated by bouts of heavy monsoon rain, may have weakened the empire by shrinking water supplies for drinking and agriculture, and damaging Angkor’s vast irrigation system, which was central to its economy. The kingdom is thought to have collapsed in 1431 after a raid by the Siamese from present-day Thailand. The carved stone temples of its religious center, Angkor Wat, are today a major tourist destination, but much of the rest of the civilization has sunk back into the landscape.

“Angkor at that time faced a number of problems—social, political and cultural. Environmental change pushed the ancient Khmers to the limit and they weren’t able to adapt,” said the study’s lead author, Brendan Buckley, a climate scientist and tree-ring specialist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “I wouldn’t say climate caused the collapse, but a 30-year drought had to have had an impact.”

Scientists led by Buckley were able to reconstruct 759 years of past climate in the region surrounding Angkor by studying the annual growth rings of a cypress tree, Fokienia hodginsii, growing in the highlands of Vietnam’s Bidoup Nui Ba National Park, about 700 kilometers away. By hiking high into the mountain cloud forests, the researchers were able to find rare specimens over 1,000 years old that had not been touched by loggers. After extracting tiny cores of wood showing the trees’ annual growth rings, researchers reconstructed year-to-year moisture levels in this part of Southeast Asia from 1250 to 2008. The tree rings revealed evidence of a mega-drought lasting three decades—from the 1330s to 1360s– followed by a more severe but shorter drought from the 1400s to 1420s. Written records corroborate the latter drought, which may have been felt as far away as Sri Lanka and central China.

The droughts may have been devastating for a civilization dependent on farming and an irrigation system of reservoirs, canals and embankments sprawling across more than a thousand square kilometers. The droughts could have led to crop failure and a rise in infectious disease, and both problems would have been exacerbated by the density of the population, Buckley says.

The study also finds that the droughts were punctuated by several extraordinarily intense rainy seasons that may have damaged Angkor’s hydraulic system. During a normal monsoon season, Angkor’s hydraulic network could have handled heavy downpours, but after extended droughts, the system may have been vulnerable to massive siltation and clogging, the study suggests. Layers of coarse debris and other sediments found blocking some canals appear to have been laid down suddenly. In other spots, apparently sudden erosion cut canals as much as 8 meters below the surrounding landscape, potentially destabilizing the hydraulic system. Archeologists have found additional evidence that canals were rebuilt and rerouted to cope with water shortages.

In compiling the longest tropical tree ring record to date, researchers found that the third-driest, and the driest, years in the last 760 years occurred back to back in 1402 and 1403, about three decades before Angkor’s fall. The second driest was 1888, which coincided with the 1888-1889 El Niño, a cyclical warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. By correlating known El Niño cycles measured with modern instruments, researchers have documented how the cyclical warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean brings rain to some places and drought to others. The authors of the current study and other researchers suggest that El Niño, possibly abetted by longer, decades-long cycles across the Pacific basin, may have played an important role in shutting down the monsoon rains in this region, creating withering droughts in the past. Some scientists suspect that warming of the global climate may intensify these cycles in the future, raising the possibility of alternating Angkor-like droughts and destructive floods that could affect billions of people.

Similar studies suggest that abrupt environmental changes may have pushed other ancient civilizations over the edge, including the Anasazi people of the southwestern United States; the Maya people of Central America, and the Akkadian people of Mesopotamia. There is some evidence that other once-powerful kingdoms in what is now Vietnam and Myanmar may have fallen during the late 1700s, following extreme dry and wet periods.

“Both human society and the erth’s climate system are complex systems capable of unexpected behavior. Through the long-term perspective offered by climate and archaeological records, we can start to identify and understand the myriad ways they may interact,” said study coauthor Kevin Anchukaitis, a tree ring scientist at Lamont. “The evidence from monsoon Asia should remind us that complex civilizations are still quite vulnerable to climate variability and change.”

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Related link: An audio slideshow follows the researchers in their search for ancient trees to unlock the workings of the Asian monsoon.

http://www.earth.columbia.edu/videos/watch/108

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Related Links:

Posted in Angkor civilization, capitalism, collapse, drought and deluge, human impact | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

TC Paul: Wet Storm in a Teacup?

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

Did we say everlasting storms?

Klingons would feel at home with Cyclone Paul—it’s like a bad dream that won’t go away!

Tropical Cyclone Paul (TC22P), more of a weakish storm than a muscle cyclone, has produced nearly 50 hours of rain on Australia’s NT coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, without moving much.

TC Paul has so far produced up to 1,000 mm of rain on the eastern coast of Arnhem Land, Northern Territory, Australia.

Summary of Details:

Tropical Cyclone Paul was located about 110km WNW of  Alyangula and 170 km SW of Nhulunbuy, moving west at about 5 km/hr. The cyclone is currently over land west of Cape Shield, according to BOM, other sources and Fire-Earth extrapolations, as of posting.

Although the system is expected to weaken as it moves further inland, it would probably re-intensify as  it moves back into the Gulf of Carpentaria by early Thursday local time.

Location: Near 13.3ºS, 135.6ºE


Cyclone Paul. IR Satellite image. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.


Cyclone Paul. IR?WV difference image. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.


TC Paul Projected Path.
Source: JTWC


TC Paul ‘Kangaroo Map.” Issued at 7:54 am CST Tuesday 30 March 2010.


Color-coded image of estimated rainfall total for March 22–28, 2010. Source: NASA


Tropical Cyclone Paul  MODIS image taken on March 29, 2010.Source: NASA

Australian BOM images:

Animations from Digital Typhoon

Posted in Gulf of Carpentari, Klingons, Storm in a Teacup, TC 22p, Tropical Cyclone Paul | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »