Victoria Flood Update: 46 Towns Affected

The town of Horsham and township of Rupanyup threatened by raging floodwaters

The town of Echuca remains submerged after the Campaspe River peaked overnight at 95.75 meters AHD just after 9pm Sunday. The river has since marginally receded to 95.6m.

[Moderator’s Note: AHD is acronym for the Australian Height Datum, the mean sea level for 1966-1968, which was assigned the value of zero. ]

State Emergency Services has received about 6,000 calls for help, as 46 Victorian towns are affected by flooding, reports say.

In Horsham, western Victoria, SES is expecting the worst floods in more than 100 years.

“The Avoca River is also threatening towns including Quambatook, Culgoa, Boort and Donald, while Kerang is expected to be cut off in the coming days,” according to a report.

Status of Other Victorian Rivers:

• “At the Rochester Syphon the Campaspe River peaked at a record flood level of 9.17 metres (Major Flood Level 9.1 metres) during Saturday evening. This is higher than the 1983 flood peak of 9.15 metres. The current level is 9.02 metres and gradually falling (Moderate Flood Level 8.8 metres). It is expected that the river will remain above the moderate flood level until Tuesday
  afternoon/evening.”

• “In the township of Rochester the river level peaked above the highest gauge level (114.8 metres) well above the Major Flood Level (114.5 metres). The river is now falling, but is expected to remain above the Moderate Flood Level (114 metres) until Tuesday afternoon/evening.” BOM said.

• “The Murray River at the Echuca Wharf gauge is currently at 92.51 metres and rising slowly.”

Latest Significant River Heights:

• Campaspe R. D/S L. Eppalock 158.03m steady 10:45 AM MON 17/01/11
• Campaspe R. D/S L. Eppalock 158.03m steady 10:45 AM MON 17/01/11
• Campaspe R. at Rochester Syp. 9.02m steady 10:45 AM MON 17/01/11
• Campaspe R. at Echuca 95.6m AHD 08:30 AM MON 17/01/11
• Murray R. at Echuca Wharf 92.51m rising 10:45 AM MON 17/01/11 (SOURCE: BOM)

• Wimmera R. at Walmer 3.92m rising 03:44 PM MON 17/01/11
• Wimmera R. at Quontong Br. 6.97m rising 03:45 PM MON 17/01/11
• Wimmera R. U/S Dimboola 5.11m steady 03:39 PM MON 17/01/11

• Glenelg R. at Sandford 5.2m steady 01:00 PM SUN 16/01/11
• Ovens R. at Wangaratta 11.71m steady 08:30 AM MON 17/01/11
• Broken R. at Broken Weir 177.11m steady 05:07 AM SUN 16/01/11
• Seven Cks. at Kialla West 4.15m falling 09:36 AM MON 17/01/11
• Goulburn R. at Goulburn Weir DS 119.96m steady 02:58 PM MON 17/01/11
• Castle Ck. at Arcadia 1.14m steady 03:21 PM MON 17/01/11
• Goulburn R. at Arcadia Downs 9.71m rising 03:40 PM MON 17/01/11
• Seven Cks. at Kialla West 4.02m steady 03:06 PM MON 17/01/11
• Broken R. at Orrvale 5.88m steady 03:27 PM MON 17/01/11
• Goulburn R. at Shepparton 9.42m rising 03:31 PM MON 17/01/11
• Goulburn R. at McCoys Bridge 5.96m rising 02:30 PM MON 17/01/11
• Loddon R. at Kerang 77.13m steady 02:45 PM MON 17/01/11
• Avoca R. at Charlton D/S 7.10m falling 05:30 PM MON 17/01/11

Victorian Warnings Summary

• Coastal Waters Wind Warning for Victorian waters between Cape Otway and 60nm east of Gabo Island,
• Victoria Flood Warning Summary,
• Flood Warnings:Current
• Ocean Wind Warning 2 – South Eastern area.

Flood Threat Advice

IDD20510- Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyNorthern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

FLOOD THREAT ADVICE
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN at 1100 CST Monday 17 JANUARY 2011

AREA INVOLVED: Darwin-Daly District.

RAINFALL SUMMARY
In the 24 hours to 9 am today there were scattered falls 10-20 mm over the Darwin-Daly District with very isolated falls 30-60 mm.

WEATHER SUMMARY
The monsoon trough lies to the south of the Top End and is expected to slip south a little before moving back north mid week. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms with overnight rain periods will continue over the Darwin-Daly District.

FORECAST
for the rest of today and Tuesday Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with overnight rain periods will result in scattered falls of 20-40mm over the Darwin-Daly District. Isolated heavy falls 50-80 mm possible. These totals may cause significant stream rises and localised flooding.

OUTLOOK for Wednesday and Thursday Scattered showers and isolated storms with scattered falls of 20-40 mm over the Darwin-Daly District, with isolated heavy falls 50-80 mm possible in the west. These totals may cause significant stream rises and localised flooding.

NEXT ADVICE
Around 11 am Tuesday.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Australia: WARNINGS CURRENT

TROPICAL CYCLONE | NSW/ACT | VIC | QLD | WA | TAS | NT

QLD Flood Update:

Queensland Premier has announced a commission of inquiry into the state’s devastating floods, as she confirmed the death toll in the disaster has climbed to 20 [total of 30 since December,] a report said.

At least 16 other people are still unaccounted for.

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14% Less Solar Energy Reflected Back to Space

Dwindling Snow and Ice Cover Reflect 0.45Wm-² Less sunshine to Space: Study

Ever-shrinking snow and ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere, which contribute to “cyrospheric cooling,” now reflect only about 3.3Wm-² Solar Energy back to space, an average of 0.45Wm-² less than they did in the late 1970s, a new study says.

Cyrospheric cooling has declined by an average of 0.45 W m-² from 1979 to 2008, according to the study, which was published in the Nature Geoscience journal Sunday.

The following is an excerpt from the report abstract:

The extent of snow cover and sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since 1979, coincident with hemispheric warming and indicative of a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. This albedo feedback of snow on land has been quantified from observations at seasonal timescales and century-scale feedback has been assessed using climate models. However, the total impact of the cryosphere on radiative forcing and albedo feedback has yet to be determined from measurements. Here we assess the influence of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere on Earth’s radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere—termed cryosphere radiative forcing—by synthesizing a variety of remote sensing and field measurements. We estimate mean Northern Hemisphere forcing at −4.6 to −2.2 Wm-², with a peak in May of −9.0±2.7 Wm-².

The planet’s shrinking snow and sea ice cover means less heat reflected back to space resulting in a positive feedback loop heating the globe. The warming is intensifying at a higher rate than climate  models have predicted, according to new research. Image Credit: Mark Flanner.

[Moderator’s Note: The cryosphere refers to those parts of our planet where water is in solid form including glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, sea ice, snow cover and the permafrost.]

Scale of Positive Feedback

For each degree Kelvin (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) increase in temperatures, which reduces the Northern Hemisphere’s snow and ice cover, the solar energy reflected back to space decreases by between 0.3 and 1.1Wm-²K-². The study conclude that the albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere decline is “substantially larger” when compared to estimates obtained from 18 other climate models. That is an average shortfall of 0.6Wm-² in Flanner’s research compared to IPCC allowance of 0.25Wm-² over the same period.

The reduction in cyrospheric cooling effect, caused by snow and ice cover losses, increases the amount of solar energy that our planet absorbs, Mark Flanner, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan and lead author of the study, told Reuters.

1979–2008 time series of cryosphere radiative forcing (CrRF) anomalies, relative to 1979–2008 means, from land-based snow, sea-ice, and the combination of both components. Each line depicts the mean anomalies of the 12 all-sky scenarios of albedo contrast and ∂F/∂α listed in Tables 1 and 2, and shading indicates the full range of anomalies for the snow+sea-ice forcing from all 12 cases. The 5-year moving average of snow+sea-ice forcing anomaly is shown in orange. Credit:  Mark Flanner et al. ‘Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008’

How does the new estimate compare with previous climate models?

“This reduction in reflected solar energy through warming is greater than simulated by the current crop of climate models,” Flanner said.

“Our analysis of snow and sea ice changes over the last 30 years indicates that this cryospheric feedback is almost twice as strong as what models have simulated. The implication is that Earth’s climate may be more sensitive to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other perturbations than models predict.”

“The cryospheric albedo feedback is a relatively small player globally, but it’s been a surprisingly strong feedback mechanism over the past 30 years,” Flanner said. “A feedback of this magnitude would translate into roughly 15 percent more warming, given current understanding of other feedback mechanisms.”

“If the Earth were just a static rock, we could calculate precisely what the level of warming would be, given a perturbation to the system. But because of these feedback mechanisms we don’t know exactly how the climate will respond to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide,” he said.

“The conclusion is that the cryosphere is both responding more sensitively to, and also driving, stronger climate change than thought.”

The Cyrospheric Impact on Our Planet

“On a global scale, the planet absorbs solar energy at a rate of about 240 watts per square meter averaged over a year. The planet would be darker and absorb an additional 3.3 watts without the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere,” Flanner said.

“The cryospheric albedo feedback is a relatively small player globally, but it’s been a surprisingly strong feedback mechanism over the past 30 years,” Flanner said. “A feedback of this magnitude would translate into roughly 15 percent more warming, given current understanding of other feedback mechanisms.”

Top 10 Warmest Years

The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature is 13.9°C (56.9°F), the annually averaged land temperature for the same period is 8.5°C (47.3°F), and the long-term annually averaged sea surface temperature is 16.1°C (60.9°F). Source: NOAA.

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