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Archive for February 17th, 2011

3 Solar Flares Reaching Earth

Posted by feww on February 17, 2011

Solar Flares May Cause Geomagnetic Storms

Three solar eruptions from the Sun to reach Earth Thursday through Friday

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) will smash into the Earth’s magnetic shield and could cause disruptions in power grids, telecommunication and satellite navigation systems.

“The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending — G2, possibly periods of G3 — geomagnetic storming. Watch Today’s Space Weather for the most recent activity.” NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center said.


Latest GOES Solar X-ray Image. Click image to enlarge.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Feb 16 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity from Region 1161.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.

Related Links

Posted in geomagnetic storm, GOES SXI Program, M-class activity, Region 1158, Region 1161 | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Mount St. Helens: “The Ides of March?”

Posted by feww on February 17, 2011

VolcanoWatch Weekly [17 Feb 2011]

Shinmoedake Update:

Some 2,500 people living near Shinmoedake volcano on Japan’s Kyushu island were advised earlier today to evacuate their homes after heavy rain threatened lahar avalanches, reports say.

VoW: Mount St. Helens


Mount St. Helens and Spirit Lake, as seen from Bear Cove. Image Source: U.S. Forest Service via USGS/CVO.


Phreatic eruption of Mount St. Helens, March 28, 1980, as seen from the north. Image by C.Dan Miller, USGS/CVO

Mount St. Helens, Washington  Ash Plume Path May 18, 1980


Click image to enlarge.

Mount St. Helens Volcano
Position: 46°12′ N 122°10’48” W,
Summit Elevation: 2,549 m (8,363 ft )
Current Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Current Aviation Color Code: GREEN
Source: USGS/CVO

Recent observations:

An M4.3 earthquake struck the Mount St. Helens region this morning, 14 February 2011, at 10:35 a.m. PST (18:35 UTC) and was felt widely through southwestern Washington and Northwestern Oregon (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/uw/02141835/us/index.html). Its exact magnitude may change by a few tenths from this value as records are further analyzed. The earthquake was followed by several aftershocks up to M2.8 over the next few hours (http://www.pnsn.org/recenteqs/latest.htm), the three largest of which were also reported felt. All of the earthquakes are located in an area about 8 kilometers (5 miles) north of the crater of Mount St. Helens, near the Johnston Ridge Observatory, at a depth of about 4 to 6 kilometers (2.5 to 4 miles).

Today’s earthquakes are in the same place as a small swarm that took place about two weeks earlier, on 29 January. These earthquakes are reminiscent of a swarm that took place about 30 years ago, when a swarm of small earthquakes began in August 1980, a few miles northwest of today’s activity. The 1980-1981 sequence climaxed with an M5.5 earthquake on 14 February 1981. Analysis of the 1981 events suggested that they occurred along existing faults in the Mount St. Helens seismic zone, a northwest to southeast trending system of faults in which Mount St. Helens lies. The Mount St. Helens seismic zone exhibits strike-slip motion, with the southwestern rocks slipping horizontally northwest relative to the rocks northeast of the fault zone. The fault zone likely exerts control on the location of Mount St. Helens volcano. Studies following the 1980 eruption suggested that the magma removed during the May 1980 eruption and subsequent lava-dome building caused faults along the seismic zone to slip in response to the magma withdrawal. Similar interaction of volcanic activity and tectonic fault movement is possible in the case of today’s earthquakes, but at present there appears to be no signs of unrest in the volcanic system.  USGS/Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Washington

Summary of Weekly Volcanic Activity Report – 9 February to 15 February 2011

[Source: SI/USGS]

New Activity/Unrest:

Map of Volcanoes


Map of Volcanoes.
Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Ongoing Activity:

For additional information, see source.

Related Links:

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

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