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3 Solar Flares Reaching Earth

Posted by feww on February 17, 2011

Solar Flares May Cause Geomagnetic Storms

Three solar eruptions from the Sun to reach Earth Thursday through Friday

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) will smash into the Earth’s magnetic shield and could cause disruptions in power grids, telecommunication and satellite navigation systems.

“The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending — G2, possibly periods of G3 — geomagnetic storming. Watch Today’s Space Weather for the most recent activity.” NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center said.


Latest GOES Solar X-ray Image. Click image to enlarge.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Feb 16 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity from Region 1161.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.

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One Response to “3 Solar Flares Reaching Earth”

  1. feww said

    The geomagnetic storm [“Valentine’s Day Event, 2011”] has ended.

    The CMEs “disrupted HF communications and prompted a rerouting of air traffic near the poles. According to the NWS Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), three waves of energy [merged] into a single G1, or minor, geomagnetic storm.” More information can be found on the SWPC web site at:
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

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