FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes

Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog

A number of colleagues and some of our readers have asked for a summary of the earthquake forecasts for Japan that were made by this blog.

1. On May 18, 2009 FIRE-EARTH said:

Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan

A powerful earthquake could strike near south coast of Honshu in late June – September 2009

FEWW Forecast: A magnitude 7.8+ quake could strike the Tokyo Bay area in the next 30-90 days.

Details of Forecast

Magnitude: 7.8 or larger
Estimated Date:  June 14, 2009 [Uncertainty T+ 60 days]
Epicenter: 35.56°N,  139.98ºE
Location: Tokyo Bay, Tokyo, Japan
Depth: 8km [Uncertainty: +/- 2.4km]
Distances:

• 8 km south of Tokyo Disneyland
• 12 km SE of Imperial Palace
• 14 km WSW of Chiba City
• 19 km NE of Yokohama

Horizontal Uncertainty: +/- 3.8 km
Probability of Occurrence: 0.8

2. Between 9 – 12  August 2009, within the 60-day uncertainty time period stated in the forecast, 3 strong to powerful shocks struck Japan Region redistributing the earthquake stress energy and affecting the FIRE-EARTH Tokyo EQ Forecast:

3rd Powerful Quake in 3 Days Strikes Japan Region

1. A powerful earthquake measuring 7.1Mw struck about 165km W of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan, at a depth of 303.1km at on August 9, 2009 at 10:55:56 UTC. [EQ No 1 on the location map below.]

2. A strong earthquake measuring 6.4 occurred about 30km SSW of Shizuoka, Japan, at a depth of 30km at 20:07:07 UTC on Monday, August 10, 2009. [No 2 on the location map below.]

3. A 3rd earthquake [this report] measuring 6.7 occurred about 60km ESE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan region at a depth of 51 km at 22:48:51 UTC on August 12, 2009. [No 3 on the location map below.]

Location map of the three significant earthquakes that struck Japan between 9 and 12 August 2009. Original Map: USGS

3.  On August 17, 2009 after a 4th strong quake had struck Japan Region, having analyzed the new data, FIRE-EARTH forecast that as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region [before a catastrophic event occurs.]

4th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

Posted by feww on August 17, 2009

Magnitude 6.8 Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan

FEWW Moderators had predicted more powerful earthquakes in the region last week, and now believe as many as 10 additional magnitude 6+ quakes could yet strike the region in coming weeks

Volcanic Activity Forecast

FEWW Moderators also believe there is a strong probability (0.8+) that the submarine Unnamed Volcano located East of Taiwan at 24.00N, 121.83E could erupt in 2009. [See previous comment.]

4. See  below for a list of the shocks forecasted.

• 5th Strong Quake Strikes Japan Region
• 6th Strong Quake Strikes Near Ryukyu Isles, Japan

• Seventh Powerful Quake Hits Japan Region Posted by feww on October 30, 2009

• 8th Strong Quake Strikes Ryukyu Islands, Japan
• The 9th Powerful Quake Strikes Japan Region

• Global Earthquakes Tempi Rising Posted by feww on July 20, 2010
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted by feww on June 13, 2010
• FEWW Earthquake WARNING: JAPAN Region Posted by feww on September 4, 2009
• Powerful 6.9Mw Quake Strikes Bonin Islands, Japan Posted by feww on November 30, 2010

• M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region Posted by feww on December 21, 2010
• Japan 7.2 Quake Strikes Off the Coast of Honshu Posted on 9 March 2011

5. List of the Latest Forecasts

• In Tectonics Update – March 10 FIRE-EARTH warned:

JAPAN’s Sendai Quake Aftershocks

At least 25 aftershocks have been reported by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) since yesterday’s powerful 7.2Mw quake which struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, about 168km east of the city of Sendai.

Two of the largest shocks measured M6.1 and 6.8, striking Sanriku Oki region at 03:45 JST [03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011] and 06:24 JST  [06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011] respectively.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

• In M 7.4 Quake Strikes Japan Region Posted by feww on December 21, 2010

FEWW Forecast

More powerful earthquakes, some related to this event, could strike Japan Region, much closer to the coastal areas.

On June 13, 2010, FIRE-EARTH forecast

Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

• In M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted by feww on July 5, 2010 FEWW said:

Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes

Japan region could be struck by up to 3 additional strong to large earthquakes by end 2010/early 2011, one of which could be a catastrophic event.

• In Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted by feww on November 10, 2010

Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan

The earthquakes could affect a wide region within 100 to 150 km radius of Tokyo Bay area.

• See also: Earthquake Forecast 2009

• In Tectonics Update – March 10 Posted by feww on March 10, 2011

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.

6. NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015

• In MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU Posted by feww on March 11, 2011

This quake may be a foreshock, with a larger event yet to follow: FIRE-EARTH

7. In 2011 Much More Disastrous

Posted by feww on September 13, 2010, FEWW warned:

2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010

Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population

The impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters on the population will be 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with 2010: Fire-Earth Forecast

Earth is critically wounded and diseased as a result of human assault and battery.

Humans’ first wave of serious [near-fatal] assault on the planet began in the early 1980s and has since heightened in severity.

Our feverish planet‘s fight against the pathogens is entering a critical phase. The earth’s defense mechanism is employing geophysical  phenomenon, as a result of which the impact of natural disasters on human population is intensifying.

In 2007 EDRO models showed that the intensity of disasters caused as a result of the planet’s self-healing process would lead to the first wave of collapse of the population centers, globally by about 2012.

It has!

The collapse has already started and would ultimately lead to the extinction [possibly the near-extinction] of human race.

For the EDRO forecast to be true, the final years leading to the start of collapse, namely 2010, 2011 and 2012, must necessarily be progressively more disastrous.

Based on its models, Fire-Earth Moderators forecast in late December 2009 that 2010 would prove to be the most disastrous year on record. And with more than 100 days left to the end of this year, the forecast has already proven to be true and accurate.

What about 2011?

Fire-Earth models show that the impact of anthropogenic and human-enhanced natural disasters would be about 600 percent more severe in 2011 compared with this year.

Based on our findings, we estimate that between one-third and one-half of the world population could be affected in some way by various disasters that are forecast to occur in 2011.

Related Links

• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Energy Released by Japan Mega Quake

BREAKING NEWS

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has just upgraded the Sendai Megaquake from a Magnitude 8.8 to a 9.0Mw.

Energy released by Japan’s M8.9 M9.0 Mega Quake and its ongoing aftershocks could reach 1.45 a total of 2.02 exajoules (EJ)

The Sendai Megaquake released about 1.41 2.0 EJ of energy (the equivalent of about 340 480 megatons, or 24,000 34,000 Hiroshima bombs).

[NOTE: TNT equivalent is a method of quantifying the energy released in explosions. The megaton is a unit of energy equal to 4.184 petajoules.]

The Aftershocks

As of posting, some 175 significant aftershocks (≥5.0Mw) have been reported since the Megaquake struck.

Moving Honshu to the East

The Megauake moved  Japan’s main island of  Honshu 2.4 m (8 feet) to the east, said a USGS geophysicist.

Geologists at the University of Tokyo say the earthquake shifted the Earth’s axis by about 10cm.

The movement also sped up the Earth’s rotation by about 1.6 microseconds, NASA said.  [Don’t forget to adjust your clocks!!]

The Sinking Land

Some of the stress energy destroyed structures along the eastern coast of Honshu, and split the ground. As a result the land surface in many areas of Miyagi prefecture has sunk by about 70cm (2.2 ft), trapping water brought in buy the deadly tsunami waves.

[A colleague informs us that according to Japan’s Civil Defense manuals people should climb to the third floor of buildings in case of a tsunami. The deadly Sendai Tsunami had reached the fifth floor—about 15 meters high—in many areas!]

The Giant Tsunami

Rest of the energy was used to trigger a giant tsunami. The following image shows the energy map of the Tsunami spawned by the Sendai Megaquake.

Energy Map of Japan’s Tsunami Spawned by the 9.0Mw Megaquake

Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Japan’s Tsunami Floods – Satellite Images

The images don’t show much, but that’s all NASA-EO has released so far!

Earthquake and Tsunami near Sendai, Japan

True-color image acquired by MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 12:10 pm local time on March 12, 2011. Download larger image (11 MB, JPEG). Click image to enlarge.

Flooding from Tsunami near Sendai, Japan

Download larger image (9 MB, JPEG) – acquired March 12, 2011

Download larger  image (15 MB, JPEG) – acquired February 26, 2011.  Click images to enlarge.

The two images of ‘Flooding from Tsunami’ were made with a combination of infrared and visible light to enhance the contrast between land and water. “NASA’s Terra satellite’s first view of northeastern Japan in the wake of a devastating earthquake and tsunami reveal extensive flooding along the coast. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) acquired the top image of the Sendai region on March 12, 2011, at 10:30 a.m.” The lower image dated February 26, 2011, is provided as reference.  Water is black or dark blue; plant-covered land is green;  snow-covered areas are pale blue; clouds are white and pale blue; paved areas in the city of Sendai is shown in brown. Source: NASA-EO.

Meltdown Threat at a Sixth Fukushima Reactor

A 6th Reactor at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Faces Core Meltdown

Pressure buildup has reached a critical level in a sixth reactor at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency has said in a statement.

Authorities are pumping in massive amounts of seawater to cool down all the reactors at the two Fukushima plants.

Radiation has reportedly been detected outside more than one reactor unit as a total of 6 reactors are either undergoing at least partial meltdown, or face the eminent threat of  explosion or meltdown

Meanwhile, Japan govt has mobilized a rescue team consisting of more than 100,000 personnel to assist victims of the deadly earthquake and tsunami.

According to the latest NHK news bulletin, the rescue and recovery teams in Miyagi prefecture have recovered  another 200 bodies. The official death toll currently stands at more than 1,000, with another 1,000 reported as missing,  but the total could reach into many thousands, possibly tens of thousands.

A video of the first explosion at Fukushima Plant No. 1

Comment by an Expert

“An early tipoff that Japanese authorities felt that events at Fukushima were very serious was the ordering of an evacuation within a couple of hours of the earthquake.  Though the area was small and the evacuation was called ‘precautionary,’ the fact is that ordering several thousand more people into motion during the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake and tsunami is something that no government would do if it could possibly help it.” Said a former member of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Peter Bradford.

Trying to avert multiple core meltdown

Tokyo Electric Power Co is planning to vent more steam from the core containment units to reduce the danger of explosion and core meltdown, but that entails releasing even more radiation into the environment.

Power Shortages

Several areas near the quake area have been without electricity [as well as water, gas and phone services] since the megaquake struck two days ago.

Tokyo electricity is currently buying power from western Japan districts, and people have been asked to conserve electricity.

Mounting Aftershocks

A total of 170 significant aftershocks (≥5.0) have now struck near the east coat of Honshu, mostly close to the Mega Quake’s epicenter.

The Sinking Land

The land in many areas of Miyagi prefecture has sunk by about 70cm, trapping water brought in buy the deadly tsunami waves.