Global Tectonics Alert

Japan Earthquake Forecasts

THIS SECTION WAS REVISED ON APRIL 9

SEE: JPTRMT1

The earthquakes could potentially rip through one or more of Japan’s nuclear power plants creating  a radioactive hell.

Japan MUST ACT NOW to prevent further RADIOACTIVE NIGHTMARES by decommissioning all of its nuclear reactors at war speed.

Previously …

March 16, 2011

Global Disaster Forecast – 16 Mar 2011

TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING
Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area – Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast

March 13, 2011

FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes
Japan Earthquakes: A Summary of Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH Blog

• NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015

Global Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Related Links:

• Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you
• M7.4 Quake Strikes Near E Coast of Honshu
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

U.S. Weather: Flooding, Wildfires, Heavy Snow

Severe weather for NE Kansas and NW Missouri today: NOAA

Flooding to increase in the Dakotas and Minnesota, southern Plains threatened by extreme fire weather conditions, as central Rockies continue to be buffeted by winter storms, NOAA forecasters say.

Click map to enter NWS portal.

Heavy Snow Forecast

“Scattered heavy snow is expected in parts of Montana, Idaho, Washington, California, Nevada and Colorado while light to moderates snow will be widespread in the Pacific Northwest and the Mountain West. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast for the central Plains, the Midwest and the Central Gulf states. With the exception of isolated rain and thunderstorms in Texas and southern Louisiana, the South will remain dry from southern Texas across Florida to the Eastern Seaboard.” NWS reported.

Alaska hit by a “dynamic and dangerous storm”

“Winds of 100 miles per hour roared through an Aleutian Island village on Thursday, ripping roofs off buildings, blowing out windows and causing structures to collapse,” local officials were reported as saying.

“The damage in False Pass, a tiny fishing village on Unimak Island, made it among the worst-hit parts of the state in a fierce winter storm that moved in from the Bering Sea.”

Twin Cities

“A strong weather system will organize on Saturday, bringing the first severe thunderstorm potential of 2011 to the area, especially late Saturday afternoon and night. The system will then track east on Sunday, still leading to thunderstorms …” NWS

Snow melts, river levels rise in the Upper Midwest

Melting snow and ice in Upper Midwest is inundating the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers.  National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flood warnings for communities along those rivers. NWS reported  major flooding along the Minnesota River at Montevideo, and along the Mississippi River at St. Paul, as well as warnings for moderate and minor flooding in the region. The above IR/visible light images were taken by MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite on April 6, 2011 (top), March 28, 2011 (middle), and February 28, 2011 (bottom). Source: NASA-EO

Related Links

• Severe Thunderstorms Pummel North and Central Georgia April 6, 2011
• US Weather Forecast: Thunderstorms, Strong Winds, Flooding, Fire [April 5, 2011]

• US Severe Weather Forecast: T-Storms, Tornadoes [April 4, 2011]
• Red Flag Warnings in Seven States
• Deadly EF2 Tornado Strikes Louisiana Town
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• US Wildfire Pattern Consistent with Drought
• National Fire Stats Falsified?
• Denver wildfire forces evacuation of 10,000 homes
• Fierce Storm Dumps 160mm of Rain over SoCal
• Wildfires Wreaking Havoc Across the U.S.
• World on Fire

Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you

Places Most at Risk of Nuclear Disasters

Global

Nuclear power is harmful to the planet and all its lifeforms. Any nuclear disaster striking anywhere on the planet has global implications.

Currently 32 countries operate nuclear power plants, 27 of which are building even more reactor units. Fifteen other countries that are currently without nuclear power  plan to build one or more plants.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

United States

Coming soon …

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

To our readers whose comments were inadvertently omitted while revising and reposing  this list:  Please resubmit your comment.