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Archive for April 18th, 2011

M6.6 Quake Strikes S of the KERMADEC Islands

Posted by feww on April 18, 2011

WE TOLD YOU SO!

Strong Quake Rattles New Zealand’s Proposed Oil Drilling Site at Raukumara Basin

On April 15, 2011  FIRE-EARTH said

Ironically, Raukumara Basin sits between Kermadec Trench and Kermadec Ridge, and has an inherently unstable geology. FIRE-EARTH believes any oil-drilling in the exceptionally seismic area would most certainly prove disastrous for the entire region.

The quake struck at a depth of 90 km about 550 km ENE of Auckland, New Zealand.

10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,180°E


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Earthquake Details [USGS]

  • Magnitude: 6.6
  • Date-Time: Monday, April 18, 2011 at 13:03:04 UTC [Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 01:03:04 AM at epicenter]
  • Location: 34.321°S, 179.994°E
  • Depth: 90.4 km (56.2 miles)
  • Region:  SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS  [NNE of East Cape, New Zealand]
  • Distances:
    • 380 km NNE (21°) of East Cape New Zealand [FIRE-EARTH estimate]
    • 551 km (342 miles) ENE (61°) from Auckland, New Zealand
    • 899 km (559 miles) NNE (32°) from WELLINGTON, New Zealand
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 14.1 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 5.4 km (3.4 miles)
  • Parameters:  NST=460, Nph=487, Dmin=390.7 km, Rmss=1.26 sec, Gp= 14°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=E
  • Source:  U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
  • Event ID:  usc0002ty7

In Navy Vessel Used Against Deep Sea Drilling Protesters Posted on April 15, 2011 FIRE-EARTH said:


The 25,000sqkm Raukumara Basin extends about 300km north of East Cape.  Source NZ gov.

License to Pollute

Without consulting the local Maori, New Zealand government granted Petrobras a five-year permit for exploration of the Raukumara Basin, off the East Cape of New Zealand in June 2010.

Local Maori feel the pollution risk to the water and fish stocks in the regions is too great, should oil be found off the East Cape of New Zealand.

Ironically, Raukumara Basin sits between Kermadec Trench and Kermadec Ridge, and has an inherently unstable geology. FIRE-EARTH believes any oil-drilling in the exceptionally seismic area would most certainly prove disastrous for the entire region. See blog content for New Zealand earthquake forecasts.

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Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

Posted by feww on April 18, 2011

This is an update to an earlier post published on April 8, 2011

Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you

Places Most at Risk of Nuclear Disasters

Global

Nuclear power is harmful to the planet and all lifeforms. Any nuclear disaster striking anywhere on the planet has global implications.

Currently 32 countries operate nuclear power plants, 27 of which are building even more reactor units. Fifteen other countries that are currently without nuclear power  plan to build one or more plants.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (865)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, France, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

United States

Coming soon …

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each place, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-induced catastrophes such as war, as well as human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… , and other geophysical events.]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which those factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecasts.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Last Updated: April 20, 2011 at 02:58UTC

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U.S. Tornadoes – Update 18 April

Posted by feww on April 18, 2011

Updated at 02:12 UTC

Deadly  tornado clusters devastate southern U.S., killing 50 injuring 500

Waves of tornadoes battering southern United States, killing about 50 people and injuring hundreds of others from Oklahoma through the South and on to the Atlantic Coast since Thursday, have carved swathes of destruction in their wake, with hundreds of homes left destroyed or severely damaged.

Combined Map of Reported Tornadoes, Severe Weather and Hail 14 – 17 April 2011


Source:  NWS/ Storm Prediction Center. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Tornado Reports: 248
Wind Reports/High: 434/5
Hail Reports/Large: 356/31
3-Day Total Reports: 1,038

In the worst tornado assault ever recorded, 248 twisters have devastated large areas in 14 states from Thursday through Saturday. A total of 1,038 tornadoes, wind gusts and hail events were reported, according to the logs kept at the Storm Prediction Center.


NC Tornado damage. Frame grab from AP video report. Video clip posted HERE

States of Emergency

  • Virginia.  Gov McDonnell has declared a state of emergency following widespread damage caused by powerful thunderstorms, which left at least six people dead in the central and southern parts of the state on Sunday, a report said.
  • North Carolina. Gov Perdue has declared a state of emergency for North Carolina because of the destruction caused by deadly storms and tornadoes across the state, reports said. Sever storms ripped through central North Carolina causing multiple fatalities and much destruction.
  • Alabama.  Gov Bentley is declaring a State of Emergency for all Alabama counties following severe weather which brought tornados, severe t-storms, hail and strong winds earlier today, a report said. At least one person was killed in
    • “This is a serious storm that has already caused significant damage across the South. I hope Alabamians take extreme caution while these storms move through,” said Bentley.
    • “There are confirmed reports of tornado touchdowns in the following Alabama counties:  Monroe, Greene, Marengo, Sumter, Tuscaloosa and Choctaw. Multiple injuries have been reported in Sumter, Greene and Marengo counties.” The report said.
    • “An apparent tornado struck Bellington Circle approximately 6 miles south of Linden [Marengo County.] Law enforcement confirmed 1 fatality and at least 4 injuries.” The National Weather Service reported.
  • Mississippi. “A State of Emergency has been declared for 14 Mississippi counties after tornadoes and high winds whipped through the state today, causing multiple injuries, shutting down I-20, ravaging homes and businesses and knocking out power to thousands.” Said a report.
  • Oklahoma.  Gov Fallin has declared a state of emergency in 26 Oklahoma counties, a report said. The declaration include the following counties: Atoka, Carter, Coal, Creek, Custer, Delaware, Harper, Johnston, Latimer, LeFlore, Lincoln, Love, Marshall, Murray, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Pittsburg, Pontotoc, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington and Woodward.

From: 2011 Disaster Calendar – April

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