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Archive for May, 2011

4,024,776,626,758,050

Posted by feww on May 31, 2011

Total Atmospheric CO2e: 4,024.78 Gt

CO2 at Mauna Loa (weekly average)

Week of May 22, 2011: 394.97 ppm

  • Weekly value from 1 year ago:   393.06 ppm
  • Weekly value from 10 years ago:   373.93 ppm

Based on the above data, total atmospheric CO2 TODAY:

3,081,994,507,051.11 Mt [3,082Gt]

Combined impact of Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Methane (CH4) and CFC 12 ( CCl2F2) calculated at their full global warming potential: 30.59% of the CO2 Impact, or the CO2 equivalent of

942,782,119,706.94 Mt CO2e [942 Gt CO2e]

Effective Total: 4,024.78 GtCO2e

[MT: Metric Tons;  Gt: Gigatons; CO2e: Carbon Dioxide Equivalent; ppm: parts per million by volume]

Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ESRL)

The graph, updated weekly, shows as individual points daily mean CO2 up to and including the week (Sunday through Saturday) previous to today. The daily means are based on hours during which CO2 was likely representative of “background” conditions, defined as times when the measurement is representative of air at mid-altitudes over the Pacific Ocean. That air has had several days time or more to mix, smoothing out most of the CO2 variability encountered elsewhere, making the measurements representative of CO2 over hundreds of km or more. The selection process is designed to filter out any influence of nearby emissions, or removals, of CO2 such as caused by the vegetation on the island of Hawaii, and likewise emissions from the volcanic crater of Mauna Loa. For details, see ”How we measure background CO2 levels at Mauna Loa”. The same measurement principles also apply elsewhere. The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. These data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Image and Caption: ESRL.  Click images to enlarge.


This figure shows the atmospheric increase of CO2 over 280 ppm in weekly averages of CO2 observed at Mauna Loa. The value of 280 ppm is chosen as representative of pre-industrial air because it is close to the average of CO2 measured and dated with high time resolution between the years 1000 and 1800 in an ice core from Law Dome, Antarctica. [Etheridge et al., 1996]. Although the time resolution of old air locked in ice cores is not enough to preserve seasonal cycles, there is no doubt that the seasonal cycle, which is mostly caused by photosynthesis and respiration of ecosystems on land, was similar to what we observe today. Therefore, for the comparison with pre-industrial times the Mauna Loa weekly data have been first deseasonalized by subtracting the observed average seasonal cycle, and then subtracting 280 ppm. The enhancement of the CO2 mole fraction in the atmosphere over pre-industrial is expressed both as ppm and as a percentage change since the year 1800. Data are reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO2 itself, after water vapor has been removed. The mole fraction is expressed as parts per million (ppm). Example: 0.000400 is expressed as 400 ppm.  Image and Caption: ESRL 

CO2 emissions reach a record high in 2010

Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2010 broke all previous records, according to the latest estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Recent Mauna Loa CO2

The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.


The last four complete years of the Mauna Loa CO2 record plus the current year are shown. Data are reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO2 itself, after water vapor has been removed. The mole fraction is expressed as parts per million (ppm). Example: 0.000400 is expressed as 400 ppm.

In the above figure, the dashed red line with diamond symbols represents the monthly mean values, centered on the middle of each month. The black line with the square symbols represents the same, after correction for the average seasonal cycle. The latter is determined as a moving average of SEVEN adjacent seasonal cycles centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last THREE and one-half years of the record, where the seasonal cycle has been averaged over the first and last SEVEN years, respectively.

The last year of data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. The Mauna Loa data are being obtained at an altitude of 3400 m in the northern subtropics, and may not be the same as the globally averaged CO2 concentration at the surface.   Image and Caption: ESRL

Full Mauna Loa CO2 record


Monthly mean atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii –
The carbon dioxide data (red curve), measured as the mole fraction in dry air, on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Keeling, 1976]. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then [Thoning, 1989]. The black curve represents the seasonally corrected data.

Data are reported as a dry mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of molecules of dry air multiplied by one million (ppm).  Image and Caption: ESRL    -Data Set Available HERE

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Tornado Dead to Haunt Missouri Officials

Posted by feww on May 31, 2011

Joplin Tornado: Deadliest in Recorded History

Number of the missing is changing faster than Missouri officials can count

29 Missing in Joplin: Missouri officials rapidly reduce number of people unaccounted for after the deadly tornado!  

Other Official Stats

  • Sets of remains, including partial remains: 146 (Source: City Manager Mark Rohr quoting the Missouri Highway Patrol)
  • Missing in Joplin: 29  (down from 43 only  8 hours earlier, and from 1,500 six days earlier.)
  • No. of victims who have been positively identified: 101 (as of 3:00pm local time on Monday)
  • No. of school children killed in the tornado: 7  (from Joplin School District)
  • Number of teenage victims:  11 under the age of 18
  • About 5,000 people have so far registered with the FEMA seeking housing.

City officials said about 8,000 houses and apartment buildings were destroyed by the EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin on May 22, 2010.

Rotation tracks over Joplin, Missouri

Source: NSSL

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2011 Disasters

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Flood News

Posted by feww on May 30, 2011

Flooding News Headlines

More rain, snow, National Guard troops for Montana

The governor of flood-plagued Montana ordered more National Guard troops to join the anti-flood effort, while states downstream along the bloated Missouri River strengthened levees and laid sandbags ahead of the release of waters from dams and reservoirs. More …

Lake Champlain inching again toward destructive level

Lake Champlain, responding to the immense volume of rainfall that struck northern Vermont and the Adirondacks last Thursday, has risen to 102.75 feet above sea level as of 2 p.m. Sunday and will keep rising toward a potentially destructive level, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Weather Service reported. More …

Storms cause flooding in Chicago, suburbs

Severe storms with intense downpours caused flooding on roads and in basements throughout the city and suburbs Sunday. More …

Dakota Dunes braces for rising river; Sioux City put on alert

Rising waters all along the Missouri River mean flooding problems in Siouxland this spring. More…

Flash flooding hits Sydney – One Dead

Torrential rain caused chaos across Sydney on Monday, with city motorists rescued from flash floods and one man dead in a major freeway pile-up. More …

Floodwaters in Quebec’s Richelieu Valley expected to peak today

For the third time in 45 days, floodwater in the Richelieu Valley southeast of Montreal is expected to peak today. But, unlike other high water marks this spring, flood forecasters are finally promising better days ahead. More…

B.C., Alberta prepare for floods as Manitoba, Quebec prepare for cleanup

As the flood waters recede in Manitoba, parts of Alberta and British Columbia are being threatened by overflowing rivers and Quebec’s Richelieu River valley remains submerged. More …

From 2011 Disaster Calendar – May 30

Mass die-offs resulting from planetary response to the harm caused by humans could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,752 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

  • South Dakota, USA. Clay County Commission has issued a countywide State of Emergency “to prepare for significantly higher water levels as the Corps of Engineers increases releases from the dams,” a report said.
  • Alberta, Canada. The Municipal District of Foothills in Alberta has declared a state of emergency because of widespread flooding.
  • China.  At least one million people died of tobacco-related diseases (10 percent of them from secondhand smoke), accounting for 13 percent of China’s total of 9.43 million of deaths in 2010, a report said.
    • “China has more than 300 million smokers, and those smokers are not only damaging their own health. Second-hand smoke attacks about 740 million people, including 180 million children and teenagers, according to the 2011 China Tobacco Control Report released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) Thursday in Beijing.”

2011 Disasters

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China’s Drought Turning Critical

Posted by feww on May 30, 2011

Drought: Turning up the heat in E China

No rain for East China anytime soon: Forecasters

Drought is wreaking havoc across Central, South and East China. Many of the vast regions lakes, stricken by the worst drought in living memory, have dried up affecting tens of millions of people and millions of their livestock. There’s no prospect for early rain, forecasters say.

The drought that has affected 35 million people across 5 provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, according to the country’s Meteorological officials.

“Among them, about 4.23 million are experiencing difficulties in finding drinking water and 5.06 million are in need of assistance,” said a report.

China Drought Monitor – Worsening Drought Conditions (January 10, 2011)


Source: Division of Climate Impact Assessment/NCC/CMA

“Since early January, precipitation in Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces has been about 40 percent to 60 percent less than the same period last year, causing a 60-day drought, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.”

“China’s two largest fresh water lakes – Dongting Lake in Hunan and Poyang Lake in Jiangxi – are both drying up dramatically and, by Friday, 34.83 million people had been affected in the five provinces, the ministry said, citing reports from local civil affairs departments.” The report added.

The drought has affected about 4 million hectares (10 million acres) of crops, pushing up the vegetable prices by  “19 percent from May 23 to May 27,” according to the Baishazhou Market in Wuhan, capital of drought-hit Hubei in Central China.” The report added. 

Once A Lake!


Dried lake near Shijiao town of Qingyuan City, south China’s Guangdong Province.  (Xinhua/Li Zuomiao). Image may be subject to copyright.

The central government has ordered the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River to discharge more water to help irrigate some of the drought stricken croplands downstream; however, the  dam will run out of water if there is no rainfall before June 10, the Three Gorges Corporation has told China Daily.

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E.coli infection kills a dozen Germans

Posted by feww on May 29, 2011

Ongoing E.coli outbreak: One of the worst in history

The Ongoing E. coli outbreak in Germany (and other European countries) has claimed about a dozen lives and sickened 1,000 others, 300 of them with Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS)

The outbreak is “one of the largest [ascribed to] HUS worldwide and the largest ever reported in Germany,” the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said.

“While HUS cases are usually observed in children under five years of age, in this outbreak 87% are adults, with a clear predominance of women [two-thirds.]”

The outbreak is also said to be the largest of its kind worldwide. The source of infection is thought to be Spanish cucumbers.


Transmission electron micrograph of E. coli O157:H7 showing flagella. Pseudoreplica technique. Date: 1995. Photo Credit: Elizabeth H. White, M.S. / CDC

The virulent form of E.coli can cause blood poisoning temporary anemia, profuse bleeding and kidney failure and affect the central nervous system, medical experts said.

Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK have also reported cases of HUS.

“It is possible that there will be secondary infections during this outbreak as well. These secondary infections work from man to man and they can be avoided. That’s why we have to do everything possible for better personal hygiene.” A  Munster university epidemiologist said, warning that the  infection was spreading.

The University Hospital Luebeck  in northern Germany was quoted as saying that it was treating 70 patients and was expecting to receive 10 new cases a day.

“E. coli O157:H7 is a bacterial pathogen that has a reservoir in cattle and other similar animals.  Human illness typically follows consumption of food or water that has been contaminated with microscopic amounts of cow feces.  The illness it causes is often a severe and bloody diarrhea and painful abdominal cramps, without much fever.   In 3% to 5% of cases, a complication called hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) can occur several weeks after the initial symptoms.  This severe complication includes temporary anemia, profuse bleeding, and kidney failure.” CDC said.


An image of E.coli bacteria provided by the USDA. The bacteria can cause diarrhea, dehydration, kidney failure and death. Image Number K11077-1 Low-temperature electron micrograph of a cluster of E. colibacteria. Each individual bacterium is oblong shaped. Photo by Eric Erbe, digital colorization by Christopher Pooley. Click image to enlarge.

Clinical Features

“Most people infected with E. coli O157:H7 develop diarrhea (often bloody) and abdominal cramps 2-8 days (average of 3-4 days) after swallowing the organism, but some illnesses last longer and are more severe. Infection is usually diagnosed by culture of a stool sample. Most people recover within a week, but some develop a severe infection. A type of kidney failure called hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) can begin as the diarrhea is improving; this can occur in people of any age but is most common in children under 5 years old and the elderly.” CDC said on its website.


A colorized version of PHIL 7137 depicting a highly magnified scanning electron micrographic (SEM) view of a dividing Escherichia coli bacteria, clearly displaying the point at which the bacteria’s cell wall was dividing; Magnification 21674x.

Escherichia coli is a Gram-negative bacterium that normally colonizes the digestive tract of most warm-blooded animals, including human beings. E. coli are facultative in nature, which means that they can adapt to their environments, switching between aerobic, and anaerobic metabolic growth depending environmental stresses. One strain of E. coli, O157:H7, causes an estimated 73,000 cases of infection, and 61 deaths in the United States each year. Infection often leads to bloody diarrhea, and occasionally to kidney failure. Most illness has been associated with eating undercooked, contaminated ground beef. Person-to-person contact in families and child care centers is also an important mode of transmission. Infection can also occur after drinking raw milk and after swimming in or drinking sewage-contaminated water. Content Providers: CDC/ Evangeline Sowers, Janice Haney Carr. Photo Date: 2005. Photo Credit: Janice Haney Carr

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Joplin Tornado Death Toll Mounting

Posted by feww on May 29, 2011

State Authorities Have Trouble Counting?

Missouri state officials said they had positively identified 142 sets of human remains Saturday.

But that was early Saturday. Just a few hours later they changed their minds and revised the figure down to 139,  a report said.

A week has now passed since the deadly EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, Missouri, destroying much of the city.

Other Details

The 25 Deadliest U.S. Tornadoes


Data Source: Storm Prediction Center. Tabulation: FIRE-EARTH. *Joplin tornado death toll is preliminary, many are still missing.
NOTES:
1. “Having happened before the era of comprehensive damage surveys, some of these events may have been composed of multiple tornadoes along a damage path. Death counts for events in the 1800s and early 1900s should be treated as estimates since recordkeeping of tornado deaths was erratic back then.” SPC said on its website.
2. Modern recordkeeping did NOT began until 1950.

Deadliest Tornado Years in US History
(Official NOAA-NWS Record: 1950 – present; Research by Grazulis: 1875-1949)
Year     Fatalities
1925     794
1936     552
1917     551
1927     540
1896     537
2011   519  (139  in Joplin, as of Saturday May 28, 2011)
1953     519
1920     499
1908     477
1909     404
1932     394
1942     384
1924     376
1974     366
1933     362
*Joplin information is preliminary.

Other Tornado Stats [Missourificated?]

  • On May 24, 2011, deadly tornadoes claimed 18 lives in Oklahoma (10), Kansas (2), and Arkansas (6).
  • On May 26, 2011, deadly storms/tornadoes killed 3 people in Atlanta, Georgia.
  • The Marion County long-track EF5 of 27 April 2011 killed 78 people.
  • So far an estimated 323 tornadoes have occurred during May 2011 (3-year average: 322; decadal average: 298).
  • YTD total: 1,364 tornadoes (full year decadal average: 1,274).
  • April 2011 set a new record for the month with 875 tornadoes.
  • NWS records indicate 361 people were killed in April 2011, including 321 during the April 25-28 tornado outbreak, NOAA said.

Related Links

2011 Disasters

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SONGDA Sweeps Along Japan’s Southern Coast

Posted by feww on May 29, 2011

Tropical Storm SONGDA carries strong winds and massive precipitation to Japan’s southern coast

The storm has dumped heavy rain on western, southern and central Japan. Heavy rain is also expected in the ‘Tohoku Triple Disaster Area.’

Weather authorities have issued multiple warnings for strong winds, heavy precipitation,  flooding, landslides and high waves.


TS SONGDA IR Satellite Image (NHC enhancement) with projected path overlay. See inset for date/time/details. Source: CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.

TS SONGDA Analysis [Issued by JMA at 05:40 UTC, 29 May 2011]

Position:  32.6°N, 133.9°E
Direction and forward speed: NE 65km/h(35kt)
Central pressure: 980hPa
Maximum wind speed: 102km/hr (55kt)
Maximum wind gust: 148km/hr (80kt)
Average rainfall along storm track: 25mm/hr [FIRE-EARTH estimate based on JAM data]


TS SONGDA Projected Path. Source and copyright: JMA


TS SONGDA satellite image overlay at 05:00UTC on May 29, 2011. Source: Digital Typhoon.

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Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Digital Typhoon Animations

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Typhoon SONGDA Targets Ryukyu Islands, Okinawa

Posted by feww on May 28, 2011

SONGDA Downgraded to Cat 3B on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Typhoon SONGDA could make a direct hit on the tiny volcanic island [and popular holiday resort] of Miyakojima (Pop: 56,000; area: ~ 160 km2; position: 24°46′N 125°19′E.)

Current Details

  • Date and Time   May 28, 2011 at 05:50UTC
  • Position:  Near 24.1N 124.4E
  • Location: About 530 km SW of Kadena, Okinawa
  • Movement over the past 6 hours:  NNE
  • Forward Speed: 28km/hr (15 KTS)

Current Wind Distribution:

  • Max sustained winds: ~ 193 km/hr (104 KTS) – [Cat 3B storm on FEWW New Hurricane Scale]
  • Max wind gusts: 235 km/hr (127 KT)
  • Max significant wave height: 11.3m (37feet)
  • Source: FIRE-EARTH estimates based on data provided by JTWC and others.


Typhoon SONGDA – VIS/IR satellite image – 4km res. Source: CIMSS. [NOTE: locations show on the map are approximate, and used for reference only.]


Typhoon SONGDA – IR satellite image  (BD  Enhancement) – 2km res. Source: CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.


Map of Miyakojima Island with the position of Typhoon SONGDA shown at 04:00UTC on May 28, 2011. Source: Digital Typhoon. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

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Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

Digital Typhoon Animations

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Joplin Tornado – May 28 Update

Posted by feww on May 28, 2011

Joplin tornado death toll climbs to 132

Death toll from the devastating EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin on May 22 has risen to 132, after the remains of 6 more victims were identified, according to Joplin City Manager.

The twister, the deadliest single tornado to strike in the United States in 64 years, has also injured about 1,000 people.

Meanwhile, the officials said the number of people uncounted for had dropped to 156 [the number of missing was previously stated at about 1,500.]

Official  also said the remains of only 19 of the victims had so far been identified and released to families, a report said.

“Many of the bodies are in such poor condition that officials said they are using fingerprints, medical records, distinctive tattoos, DNA and other methods to identify them.”

Joplin Tornado Radar Animation


A supercell thunderstorm tracked from extreme southeast Kansas into far southwest Missouri (NWS Springfield, County Warning Area) late Sunday afternoon and evening (May 22nd).  This storm produced an EF-5 tornado over Joplin, Missouri resulting in devastating damage. This storm generated other tornadoes and wind damage along its path as it moved southeast across far southwest Missouri.  Spotty wind damage also occurred across the remainder of far southern Missouri as the storms moved east.  Additionally, these storms produced flash flooding across far southwest Missouri.  Image and caption: National Weather Service (NWS)

Frame by Frame Radar Sequence 


Selected frame shown at 22:39UTC on May 22, 2011. (L ) Radar Reflectivity  (R) Storm Relative Velocity. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge.

Joplin tornado store receipt flew 525 miles to Indiana

Meanwhile a Purdue University storm researcher reported that “a receipt from a tire store in Joplin, Mo., turned up 525 miles away on a front porch in north-central Indiana, a record distance for apparent tornado debris to travel,” according to a report.

“This paper traveled more than twice as far as the longest distance recorded for debris from a storm,” according to a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and tornado expert. “The previous record was a canceled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kan.” Said the report.

Joplin Tornado Satellite Images


Joplin, Missouri satellite image shows a small section of the city after it was devastated by a tornado on May 22, 2011. Source: NOAA. Cropped by FIRE-EARTH.


Joplin, Missouri satellite image after the city was devastated by a tornado on May 22, 2011. Source: NOAA. For high resolution image click HERE.

Tornado Fatalities in Georgia

At least three people were killed when a tornado with winds of up to 140 kilometers per hour touched down in Atlanta, Georgia, reports said.

 

Latest Weather Hazard Reports

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2011 Disasters

Other Tornado News

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Super Typhoon SONGDA Saunters NW

Posted by feww on May 27, 2011

Whipped cream SONGDA sundae satellite images


Super Typhoon SONGDA  Satellite Image – 1km resolution. Source CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.



MTSAT Imagery – JSL enhancement – 8km res. Source: NOAA/SDD


TRMM Satellite image.

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Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

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Severe Weather Update – May 27

Posted by feww on May 27, 2011

Friday: Severe thunderstorms forecast across most of the country

Severe Weather Threat Moving to New England, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast: NWS


GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image.
Click to enlarge.

US Weather Hazards Map


Click Map to enlarge. Click HERE to enter NWS portal.

Weather Forecast Map

Wednesday storms spawned softball-sized hail in Georgia and damaging winds  in upstate York, but no fatalities were reported, as of posting.

SPC received a total of 1,017 severe weather reports across 14 states  on Wednesday (preliminary data) including 96 tornado reports.  On Thursday there were 414 reports, including 5 tornadoes.


Severe weather reports for May 25 received at SPC, update May 27.


May 26 reports. Click image to enlarge.

Joplin Tornado

Death toll from Joplin Tornado stands at 125, with about 1,000 injured. The number of missing since the tornado struck 5 days ago is shrouded in secrecy. The figure previously released by the authorities, and subsequently retracted, was 1,500. The actual figure for those unaccounted for may be closer to 1,000.

UPDATE posted at 06:00UTC May 27, 2011
Death toll from Joplin tornado has risen to 126, as another body was found in the debris, and the number of missing was put at 232, officials said.  “We will keep a relentless focus on the search, rescue and identification of those 232 people, and we will not rest until everyone has been accounted for, and that number is zero,” Governor Jay Nixon said.

Tornado Attacks on Tuesday

Death toll from tornadoes swept the Midwest on Tuesday night, has climbed to at least 16 people: 10 fatalities in Oklahoma, 4 in Arkansas and 2 in Kansas.

UPDATE posted at 06:00UTC May 27, 2011
Death toll has risen to 17, reports said.

Flood Update

Major flooding is underway along Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, as well as in North Dakota. Flood warnings, advisories and watched have been issued for at least 25 states.

Significant River Flood Outlook


Click Map to enlarge. Click HERE to enter HPC portal.

Storm Related Fatalities

  • 2011 toll: > 510 deaths [expected to rise]
  • Annual 10-year average: 22 deaths

Thunderstorms disrupt Flights in Europe 

Meanwhile in England, strong winds and thunderstorms forced the cancellation of dozen of flights in and out of London’s Heathrow Airport, a report said.

Related Links

2011 Disasters

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Super Typhoon SONGDA

Posted by feww on May 26, 2011

SONGDA: MEGA RAINMAKER

Western Pacific Typhoon Season Starts with a Big Bang


SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA – Vis/IR Image at 12:32UTC May 26, 2011.  Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.


Super Typhoon SONGDA – MTSAT IR Image at 12:32UTC May 26, 2011. Click Image to enlarge.



Super Typhoon SONGDA – MTSAT enhanced IR Image at 13:32UTC May 26, 2011. Click Image to enlarge.


SONGDA Projected Track
. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

WARNING POSITION:

  • Date and Time   May 26, 2011 at 14:00UTC
  • Position:  Near 16.3N 125.1E
  • Movement over the past 6 hours:  315 degrees
  • Forward Speed: 15km/hr (8 KTS)

Current Wind Distribution:

  • Max sustained winds: ~ 270 km/hr (145 KTS) – [Cat 5 storm on FEWW New Hurricane Scale]
  • Max wind gusts: 325 km/hr (175 KT)
  • Source: FIRE-EARTH estimates based on data provided by JTWC and others.

Related Links

updated on  May 26, 2011 at 14:00UTC

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Joplin Tornado – Update May 26

Posted by feww on May 26, 2011

Death Toll from Mega Tornado that Devastated Joplin climbs to 125, with 1,000  Injured

Death toll from the EF5 tornado that leveled large sections of Joplin, Missouri has climbed to at least 125, with up to 1,000 others injured.

The authorities say the earlier number of the missing said to be 1,500 was inaccurate; however, they refuse to reveal the actual figure.


Four of a total 81 tornado reports received on Wednesday came from California.

Tornado Attacks on Tuesday

More tornadoes swept the Midwest on Tuesday night, killing at least 15 people: 9 in Oklahoma, 4 in Arkansas and 2 in Kansas.

Seven tornadoes struck Oklahoma overnight, the National Weather Service reported. “The deadliest of those, which killed seven persons, left a 75-mile path of destruction and lasted two hours.” Said a report.

Photo courtesy of Trenton Workman via redding dot com. A tornado touches down in Butte County Wednesday afternoon. 

2011 Severe Weather Stats – Jan 01,2011 to May 25, 2011

  • Tornado reports:  1,228
  • Hail reports:  4,215
  • Wind reports: 5,898
  • TOTAL: 11,350
  • Source: SPC

Storm Related Fatalities

  • 2011 toll: > 510 deaths [expected to rise]
  • Annual 10-year average: 22 deaths

Tornado Reports (Since May 21)


May 21 Severe Weather Reports. Click images to enlarge.


May 22


May 23


May 24

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One Large Tornado Patch

Posted by feww on May 26, 2011

US Midwest, South and Northeast Targeted by 2011 Tornado Outbreaks

US Tornado Patch 2011

2011 Severe Weather Stats – Jan 01,2011 to May 25, 2011

  • Tornado reports:  1,228
  • Hail reports:  4,215
  • Wind reports: 5,898
  • TOTAL: 11,350
  • Source: SPC

Storm Related Fatalities

  • 2011 toll: > 500 deaths [expected to rise]
  • Annual 10-year Average: 22 deaths

Now the weather outlook…


Click image to enter NWS portal.

Weather Forecast Map 


Click to enlarge.

Significant River Flood Outlook


Click Map to enlarge. Click here to enter HPC portal.

  •  River Flood Outlook for Alaska

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Grímsvötn Eruption – May 25

Posted by feww on May 25, 2011

The worst is yet to come!

FIRE-EARTH Forecasts More Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Probability of volcanic eruptions in Iceland in the next 18 months [Calculated by FIRE-EARTH]

  • A major volcanic eruption: 86%
  • Grímsvötn [volcanic system] erupting: 79%
  • Two volcanoes erupting: 76%
  • Three separate volcanic activities: 65%
  • Four volcanic eruptions: 47%

Grímsvötn volcano status

Grímsvötn Volcano Eruption


Grímsvötn volcano satellite images show volcanic ash plume partially obscured by cloud cover: Top image taken by MODIS on Terra satellite at 11:10 UTC on May 24, 2011. Bottom image was acquired at 13:05 UTC, by the MODIS instrument on Aqua satellite.  Source: NASA-EO

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Major tornado outbreak forecast for southern Plains on Wednesday

Posted by feww on May 25, 2011

Climate change quick menu!

Powerful and dangerous storm system will develop across the central and southern Plains: NWS

“A powerful and dangerous late-spring storm system will develop across the central and southern Plains today as an upper level system and a parade of supporting upper level disturbances advance out of the Intermountain West. The result will be strengthening low pressure over Kansas by this afternoon and evening that will then move slowly but steadily eastward toward Missouri by later Wednesday. The storm system will be accompanied by a classic dryline signature across the southern Plains with a strong frontal zone that will stretch across the Midwest and well to the East into the Northeast.” National Weather Service (NWS) reported.

Residents of the southern Plains and Ohio Valley are advised to prepare for severe weather, including the probability of large and powerful tornadoes through Wednesday.

Weather Hazards Map


 Click image to enter NWS portal.

Weather Forecast Map


Click images to enlarge.


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. See inset for the date and times. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)


Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.   See inset for the date and times.  Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

Tornado Update for May 24, 2011

  • A total of 491 severe weather reports  received by SPC (preliminary data) of which 47 were tornado touch downs.
  • Tornadoes reported in six states: Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas and Arkansas.
  • At least 13  people were killed in 3 states (8 people in Oklahoma, 2 in Kansas,  and  3 in Arkansas.)
  • A twister killed at least two people in Kansas on Tuesday (as above.)
  • One EF3 tornado reported in El Reno with winds of 151mph (243km/hr), as of posting.

Annual Tornado Report Map


Total Number of tornadoes: 1,115 reports  (Tornado numbers are preliminary and subject to revision.)

Top Ten Tornado Days of 2011


Source: NWS/SPC

2011 Tornado Tabulation (by State)

Tornado Safety

Joplin Tornado Update

  • Death Toll has risen to 124, and is still climbing.
  • The number of residents unaccounted for stands at 1,500.
  • At least 750 people have received hospital treatment.
  • The tornado is upgraded to EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale (see chart below) with winds exceeding 200 MPH (322 km/hr), NWS said.
  •  Much of the south side of Joplin has been levelled.
  • At least 2,000 homes have been completely destroyed.
  • Some 6,000 other structures have been damaged.
  • An estimated 5,000 vehicles have been totaled/damaged.
  • The Joplin tornado was the deadliest single twister to strike the United States since 1947.

The Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – Quick Chart

EF0: 65 TO 85 MPH
EF1: 86 TO 110 MPH
EF2: 111 TO 135 MPH
EF3: 136 TO 165 MPH
EF4: 166 TO 200 MPH
EF5: Wind speeds greater than 200 MPH

On March 1, 2011, FIRE-EARTH said:

U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather

Brace for the Worst Ever!  Climatic  Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond…

NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.  Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE  for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

Flooding and fires, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, deadly tornadoes and strong storms … are just some of the items you’ve ordered from the climate change quick menu!

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2011 Disasters

updated at 13:27 UTC on May 25, 2011

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Grímsvötn Eruption – Recent Images

Posted by feww on May 24, 2011

Ash Cloud Heads Toward UK, Grounds Flights

The towering column of smoke and ash registered a height of about 13km earlier today.

All flights to and from Scotland have been cancelled as a large volcanic ash cloud produced by Grímsvötn in Iceland heads toward the UK.

Airlines including BA, KLM, Aer Lingus, Loganair and Eastern Airways have cancelled flights on Tuesday, and several flights over the Atlantic were reportedly delayed. Hundreds of tourists have been evacuated from Iceland’s national parks.

Fly-til-Your-Planes-Fall-Out-of-Sky

“[There were now] much more robust systems [in place to] minimize the disruptive effect [of volcanic ash clouds,]” the UK transport secretary Philip Hammond told BBC news.

“Most importantly, the basic situation now is that the threshold for most aircraft is 20 times where it was last year. We have got from 200 microgrammes per cubic metre to 4,000 microgrammes per cubic metre as the threshold up to which most aircraft can fly.”


Grímsvötn Volcano Erption – freeze frame from recent video clip.

Volcanic Ash Advisory from London – Issued graphics
© Crown copyright – http://www.metoffice.gov.uk


Grímsvötn Volcano. Photo-like image captured by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite at 13:00 UTC (1:00 pm local time) on May 22, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (1 MB, JPEG)  


Ash plume from Grímsvötn Volcano, Iceland. Satellite: Aqua. Dated May 22, 2011 at 05 :15 UTC. Pixel size: 1km. Source: NASA/rapidfire.  Alternate pixel size: 500m | 250m

Grímsvötn Volcano

Summit Elevation: 1,725 m  (5,659 feet)
Latitude: 64.42°N  (64°25’0″N)
Longitude: 17.33°W  (17°20’0″W)


The Laki Fissure. The most prominent of a series of fissures extending NE and SW from Grímsvötn central volcano is the noted Laki (Skaftár) fissure, which trends vertically across the photo SW of Grímsvötn. Laki produced the world’s largest known historical lava flow during an eruption in 1783.  Photo by Sigurdur Thorarinsson (courtesy of Richard Williams, U.S. Geological Survey). Caption: GVP

The 1783-84 Deadly Eruption

The Grímsvötn volcanic system erupted from a 130-crater fissure in the Grímsvötn volcanic system called Laki or Lakagígar fissure, and Grímsvötn volcano for 244 days  (8 June 1873 to 7 February 1784), spewing at least 15km³ of basaltic lava, world’s largest and deadliest volcanic eruption, causing widespread damage to crops and destroying more than a half of Iceland’s livestock (including 85 percent of the sheep), and leading to a severe famine that resulted in the loss of about quarter of the Icelandic population.

The emission of sulfuric aerosols from Lakagígar eruption is said to have caused a drop in global temperatures, resulting in crop failures in Europe, droughts in India and China, as well as a severe famine in Japan, killing an estimated six million people  globally.

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Tornado Death Toll in Joplin Reaches 116

Posted by feww on May 23, 2011

Death Toll Expected to Rise: Officials

Mega tornado devastated Joplin, Missouri, killing at least 116, injuring 500 and destroying more than 2,000 homes

More Deadly Weather May Follow

Summary of details:

  • The deadly storm struck Joplin at 17:30 local time (22:30 UTC) on Sunday May 22, 2010.
  • The tornado has killed at least 116 people.
  • Sunday tornado was the deadliest single tornado in 64 years.
  •  Officials expect to find more bodies.
  • Some 2,000 buildings have been destroyed.
  • Many businesses, schools, churches and other buildings as well as hundreds of vehicles have also been destroyed.
  • About 500 people have been injured.
  • The tornado that struck Joplin left an estimated path of destruction about 6 miles (10km) long and 3/4 mile (1 km) wide.
  • The death and destruction in Joplin far surpasses the devastation caused by the tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Alabama in April.
  • There’re reports of the deadly tornado packing wind speeds of about 200 miles an hour.
  • FIRE-EARTH believes the tornado would have  registered at least EF4 (winds of 166 TO 200 MPH) on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale   (see bottom of the page).
  • In just 10 minutes the deadly tornado destroyed between 30 and 75 percent of the city, according to different reports.
  • St. John’s Regional Medical Center, the main local hospital, took a direct hit, which resulted in “extensive damage,” a hospital spokesman said. “The roof is gone. A lot of the windows are blown out.”
  • Debris from the hospital, including X-rays, were found as far as 110 miles away.
  • “Also destroyed were the hospital, the emergency services office, two fire houses, a nursing home, the Lowes, Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Sonic, and Academy Sports and Outdoors stores. The water treatment plant and the sewage treatment plant were also heavily damaged. Mail delivery for the southern part of the city has been suspended for today.” SPC said.

US Weather Hazard Map


Click image to enter NWS portal.

Weather Forecast Map


Click image to enlarge.


Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the central plains this afternoon and this evening as a strong storm system approaches. Thunderstorm initiation will likely occur late this afternoon approximately along a line stretching from Wichita, KS to Oklahoma City, OK, develop into a squall line and track eastward, reaching the Kansas/Missouri border by early this evening. These thunderstorms will impact the outlook area this evening and into the early overnight hours. Main severe threats with these storms will be damaging straight line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire outlook area in a Slight Risk convective outlook for today and tonight. However, a High Risk convective outlook has been issued across southern and southeastern Kansas as well as north central and northeast Oklahoma. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Wednesday as this system tracks eastward over the area. However, the threat for severe weather is low. With the continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the region, there additionally is the threat for localized flash flooding and local streams and rivers to be on the rise due to the likelihood of heavy rainfall. (SOURCE: NWS)

Many of the ingredients for a severe weather outbreak appear to be coming together this afternoon and tonight. By the late afternoon, a dryline from western Oklahoma into South Central Kansas is expected to initiate severe thunderstorms. Additionally a warm front across the northern half of Kansas could focus more thunderstorm development. These storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, some potentially large, along with very large hail and damaging winds. The system will move north and east this evening but will still affect much of central and eastern Kansas into the overnight hours. Stay tuned to the weather and have a plan should severe thunderstorms affect you. (SOURCE: NWS) 


A frontal boundary will remain stalled over northern Missouri and central Illinois through Wednesday night as a wound up area of low pressure to our west slowly approaches. This front will serve as a focus for several rounds of thunderstorms as well as maintaining the moist air over much of the bi-state region. While some thunderstorms are possible later today, thunderstorm chances will increase heading into tonight and Wednesday as the center of the main storm system approaches. Any thunderstorms that do form could become severe, but the greatest chance for severe weather will be Wednesday afternoon and evening where a widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected. In addition to severe weather, locally heavy rainfall may cause rises on area streams, creeks, and rivers. (SOURCE: NWS)

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image


Click image to enlarge.

Convective Outlook Day 1 (map with population centers)

The SPC is forecasting  severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid Mississippi Valley into the central great lakes region this afternoon and evening. Read the latest public statement.


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

National Weather Service said:

Another multi-state severe weather outbreak dropped 68 tornadoes on the central Plains, the Midwest and the western Great Lakes over the weekend, killing at least 90 people, according to NOAA Forecasters. To make matters worse, some of the same areas hit over the weekend could see repeated severe weather through Wednesday.
SPC logged more than 1,074 reports of tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds over the weekend.
  • Saturday: 22 tornado reports (including)
    •  Kansas: 14
    • Oklahoma: 5
    • Missouri: 1
  • Sunday:  55 tornado reports (including)
    • Missouri: 13
    • Minnesota: 13
    • Wisconsin: 13
    • Iowa: 5
    • Oklahoma: 3
    • North Dakota: 1

The Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – Quick Chart

EF0: 65 TO 85 MPH
EF1: 86 TO 110 MPH
EF2: 111 TO 135 MPH
EF3: 136 TO 165 MPH
EF4: 166 TO 200 MPH
EF5: Wind speeds greater than 200 MPH


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2011 Disasters


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Tornado Death Toll Rises to 89 in Joplin, Missouri

Posted by feww on May 23, 2011

Officials expect to find more bodies

Summary of Tornado Damage in Joplin, Missouri

  • The deadly storm struck Joplin at 17:30 local time (22:30 UTC) on Sunday May 22, 2010.
  • The tornado has killed at least 89 people.
  •  Officials expect to find more bodies.
  • Some 2,000 other buildings have been destroyed.
  • As many as a thousand people have been injured.
  • The tornado that struck Joplin left an estimated path of destruction about 6 miles (10km) long a 3/4 mile (1 km) wide.
  • The death and destruction in Joplin far surpasses the devastation caused by the tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Alabama in April.
  • In just 10 minutes the deadly tornado destroyed between 30 and 75 percent of the city, according to different reports.
  • St. John’s Regional Medical Center, the main local hospital, took a direct hit, which resulted in “extensive damage,” a hospital spokesman said. “The roof is gone. A lot of the windows are blown out.”
  • Debris from the hospital, including X-rays, were found as far as 45 miles (72km) away.


Joplin Tornado. Frame grab from a news video. Click HERE to view clip.

Extensive Damage, Incredible Loss of Life

  •  “The loss of life is incredible,” said Joplin Mayor Mike Woolston. “We’re still trying to find people. The outlook is pretty bleak.”
  • “We have reports of significant structural damage to strong buildings. Automobiles have been flipped, bark was stripped off trees.” A meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Springfield said.
  • Governor Nixon declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard to help deal with the disaster, stating that the storms “have caused extensive damage across Missouri.” He warned:  “[The storm] continue to pose significant risk to lives and property.”

US Tornado Alley


Source: FIRE-EARTH


Tornado Alley is a nickname for an area that consistently experiences a high frequency of tornadoes each year. The area that has the most strong and violent tornadoes includes eastern SD, NE, KS, OK. Northern TX, and eastern Colorado. Source: NSSL/NOAA. Click image to enlarge.


Relative frequency of killer tornado events, 1950-2004. White area indicates area with greatest frequency of tornado-related fatalities during the period. Red area had the second greatest frequency of tornado-related fatalities. © Copyright [2007] American Meteorological Society (AMS).

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2011 Disasters

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Defying Nature’s Limits to Growth

Posted by feww on May 23, 2011

600-mile megalopolis

Atlantic Seaboard Conurbation at Night

The so-called Atlantic Seaboard Conurbation (ASC) is one of the largest megalopolises in the world. Sitting along East Coast of the US, it stretches more than  1,000 km (600 miles).


ASC includes “major economic, governmental, and cultural centers of Boston, Massachusetts; New York, New York; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Baltimore, Maryland; and Washington, District of Columbia.” Boston (located off the image to the northeast) is not included in this astronaut photograph. Norfolk and Richmond, Virginia,  seen at image lower left  are NOT considered part of the ASC. Astronaut photograph ISS027-E-20129 was acquired on April 6, 2011 by the Expedition 27 crew. Source: NASA-EO

Unbridled human growth and excessive activity has ensured the world collapsing around us.

The Earth is fighting back to stay alive. A dead planet cannot support life.

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Missouri Tornado Kills at least 30

Posted by feww on May 23, 2011

Deadly Tornadoes Sweep the Midwest

A powerful tornado barreled through Joplin, Missouri leaving a wide path of destruction, killing at least 30 and leaving many injured

The tornado leveled a residential area of the city (population: 50,000) estimated to be as large as 20 blocks. Many people are believed to be trapped inside destroyed/damaged buildings.

“I would say 75 percent of the town is virtually gone,” Kathy Dennis of the American Red Cross told CNN.


The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had received 47 reports of tornadoes  across at least 6 states and 660 other reports of severe weather across a total of 22 states, as of posting.

The tornado reportedly made a direct hit on the city’s main St John’s hospital. Joplin is located near the Ozark Mountain region.

Governor Nixon declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard to help deal with the disaster, stating that the storms “have caused extensive damage across Missouri.”

“We have reports of significant structural damage to strong buildings..Automobiles have been flipped, bark was stripped off trees.” A meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Springfield said.

A woman who survived the tornado sheltering in her basement is helped by other Joplin residents. Credit: Mike Gullett/Associated Press. Image may be subject to copyright.

In Minneapolis at least two people were killed and 3 dozen others injured, some of them critically, when a tornado hit earlier Sunday.

On Saturday night a deadly tornado swept through the town of Reading in eastern Kansas, killing at least one person, injuring an unspecified number of others, destroying more than 20 homes and damaging 200 other building, a state emergency management official was reported as saying on Sunday.  Meanwhile, severe thunderstorms pelted the region with baseball-sized hail.

More Deadly Weather Could Follow


US Weather Forecast Map. Click to enlarge.


GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image. 

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2011 Disasters

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Large Magma Lake Lurking Beneath Iceland

Posted by feww on May 23, 2011

ABANDON ICELAND 

Icelandic Volcano Activity Could Increase Exponentially and Dramatically in the Next 5 Years

FIRE-EARTH analysis indicate that a massive lake of magma may be boiling under Iceland, which could rise to the surface anytime. Large volumes of lava could cover Iceland, making life on the volcanic island impossible. European countries MUST help to evacuate Icelanders without delay.

Grímsvötn began erupting just after 17:30 on Saturday May 21st, with the plume reaching a height of more than 20 km above the Vatnajokull glacier. During the morning of May 22, the plume reached an  altitude of 10km, rising occasionally to 15 km, Iceland Met Office (IMO) reported.

Most Violent Eruption

The Grímsvötn latest eruption was the volcano’s most violent  since 1873, according to a University of Iceland Geophysics Professor.

The eruption turned the day into night as an inch thick cloud of ash fell on the area, covering buildings, roads and cars, and reducing the visibility to less than a meter (3 feet) eyewitnesses said.


Grímsvötn volcano MODIS satellite image acquired at about 05:00UTC on May 22, 2011  shows the plume casting shadow to the west. Source: IMO

Lightning Activity

Intense lightning activity was reported follows the eruption.  “Never before have as many lightning been observed in a volcanic eruption in Iceland.” IMO reported.


Grímsvötn volcano lightning activity. Click image to enlarge.

The hourly lightning count peaked at 2,198 strokes between 00:00 and 01:00 on 22 May 2011. Whereas, the highest hourly count during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption was only 22 which occurred between 08:00 and 09:00 on 16 May 2010.

Ash Cloud

The eruption has forced the closure of Iceland’s main airport. Ash from Grímsvötn volcano could reach northern Scotland by Tuesday May 24 and  Britain, France and Spain by the weekend if the eruption continues at the same rate, UK Met Office said.


Volcanic Ash Advisory. Source Met UK.

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Deadly Tornadoes, Landslides and Forest Fires

Posted by feww on May 22, 2011

MUST BE NEWS FROM EARTH AGAIN!

FIRE-EARTH log: 2011 Disaster Calendar – MAY

[May 22, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from planetary response to the harm caused by humans could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,760 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

  • Siberia, Russia. Forest fires have consumed about 100,000 hectares of Far East Russian and Siberian forestry since April 5, 2011. Some 197 wildfires covering an area of about 66,284 ha are still burning, including 21 large fires which account for about a half of the total area on fire in Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Amur region, a report said.
    • “7,050 people and 1267 pieces of equipment have been involved in fighting forest fires.”
  • Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  Death toll from landslides that buried an orphanage near the Malaysian capital has climbed to 16.  All but one of the victims are said to be children, according to the officials.
  • Kansas, USA.  A deadly tornado swept through the town of Reading in eastern Kansas, killing at least one person, injuring an unspecified number of others, destroying more than 20 homes and damaging 200 other building, a state emergency management official was reported as saying on Sunday.
    • SPC had received at least 18 tornado reports, as of posting.

More Tornadoes May Be On the Way


US Weather Forecast Map for May 22, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

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Iceland’s Grímsvötn volcano erupts

Posted by feww on May 22, 2011

Grímsvötn volcano, Iceland’s most active, has started erupting

A large plume of smoke and ash was ejected to a height of about 20km above the volcano.

The explosive eruption, which occurred at 17.30UTC on Saturday May 21, 2011, has been described as very powerful.

Grímsvötn is Iceland’s most active volcano and had previously erupted  in November 2004.

A Map of Iceland Volcanoes. Click image to enlarge.

Iceland’s Met Office Report

“Eruptions in Grímsvötn start as subglacial eruptions, which quickly break the ice cover. At 21:00 UTC, the eruption plume had risen to an altitude of over 65,000 ft (~20 km). Initially, the plume is expected to drift to the east and subsequently to the north. Thus, the ash is not expected to impact aviation in Europe, at least not during the first 24 hours.”


Eruption cloud from Grímsvötn volcano at 22:00 UTC May 21st 2011 captured by Icelandic met Office Weather Radar located at Keflavik International Airport located about 220 km from the volcano. The eruption cloud covers a large section of Vatnajökull ice cap.

Grímsvötn: “A very powerful volcano”

“Grimsvotn is a very powerful volcano, so we’re monitoring it closely, even if the last few eruptions have been harmless,” University of Iceland geophysicist Pall Einarsson told Morgunbladid.

“We do not expect this to be a big one as it’s coming from the same crater as the last three eruptions, which were all small.”

‘Not Like Last Year

“It can be a big eruption, but it is unlikely to be like last year,” Icelandic Met Office geologist Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson told Reuters, referring Eyjafjallajokull.

Lots of Ash

“A lot of ash has been falling around the Vatnajokull glacier and nearby towns this evening. It is expected to continue through the night and maybe into tomorrow, according to Icelandic Met Office geologist, Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson. The ash is much coarser than that which came from Eyjafjallajokull last year.” IceNews reported.

Aviation Threat

Isavia civil aviation authority has imposed a 120 nm  flight ban around the volcano, a spokesman said. “We have closed the area until we know better what effect the ash will have.”


Grímsvötn volcano erupts producing a mushroom cloud of smoke and ash. Frame grabs from video clip by Icelandic National TV station RÚV.

Probability of Eruption: April 2010 Forecast

Bárðarbunga (1903) and neighboring Grímsvötn (2004) – probability of eruption: 84 percent

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Mississippi River Flooding – Recent Images

Posted by feww on May 21, 2011

Mississippi River ‘Unsafe’ to Navigate

U.S. Coast Guard shut down a 5-mile stretch of the river (from mile marker 232 to 237) after at least five vessels got out of control with three of the barges carrying corn (and wheat) sinking and the other two, carrying sulfuric acid and other chemicals, taking on water.

Earlier in the week, the area was closed for hours after 25 barges under tow broke loose, and five hit US 190, the old Mississippi River Bridge, reports said.

Mississippi River: Current High Water Flows [May 20, 2011 @ 07:00 CDT]


Source: Army Corps of Engineers. Click image to enlarge.

Morganza Floodway Day 5 of Flow


Floodwater spread  about 20 miles (32km) across the Louisiana five days after the Army Engineers opened 17 floodgates  on Morganza Spillway. About 114,000 cubic feet per second (3,200 m³s-1) per second was flowing out of the Mississippi River through the floodway on May 18 when
ASTER on NASA’s Terra satellite took this false-color image. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.   Download largest  image (4 MB, JPEG) 

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