2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA

Above Average Activity Predicted for This Year’s Atlantic Hurricane  Season

An “active to extremely active hurricane season” for the Atlantic Basin this year, says  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The six-month Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially begins June 1 through November 30, and covers the entire Atlantic Basin, is predicted to see above average activity this year, according to NOAA.

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 6 to 10 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

The probability of occurrence for each of the above is 70 percent, NOAA says, indicating that activity tops the seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia seen  left to right in this satellite image taken on on September 16, 2010. Source: NOAA 

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA predicts “below normal” hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific for 2011 with probability of 70 percent.

• 9 to 15 named storms, including
• 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which
• 1 to 3 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

East Pacific hurricane season began May 15th.

Central Pacific Hurricane Season

For the Central Pacific Region, NOAA predicts:

• Below normal season with a probability of 70 percent
• Near normal season,  a probability of 25 percent
• Above normal season, a probability of 25 percent

NOAA predicts 2-3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific in 2011, with the average season experiencing 4-5 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes).

2010 season

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.

The 2010 season (the third most active season on record jointly with 1887 and 1995) experienced 19 named storms, 12 of which developed into hurricanes (second most active hurricane season jointly with 1969.

There was NO hurricane landfall in the U.S. last year. In fact, there hasn’t been a hurricane landfall in the US since 2008 when 4 hurricanes (Dolly, Gustav, Ike and Kyle) struck.

2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Based on the blog models, recent trends set by the impact of weather extremes on population centers, especially since late 2009, and other geophysical and planetary factors, FIRE-EARTH believes 2011 could  prove less lucky than the last two years. We forecast a particularly costly hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin in 2011.  

About 40 million people in the coastal regions of the US, from  North Carolina to Texas, are most at risk of hurricanes.

The contiguous United States Population Concentration Map. Prepared by FIRE-EARTH based on a template provided by NOAA.

Atlantic Names 2011 (with pronunciations included for the audially challenged)

• Arlene ar-LEEN
• Bret bret
• Cindy SIN-dee
• Don dahn
• Emily EH-mih-lee   (!)
• Franklin FRANK-lin
• Gert gert
• Harvey HAR-vee
• Irene eye-REEN
• Jose ho-ZAY
• Katia ka-TEE-ah
• Lee lee
• Maria muh-REE-uh   (!!)
• Nate nait
• Ophelia o-FEEL-ya  (!!!)
• Philippe fee-LEEP
• Rina REE-nuh
• Sean shawn
• Tammy TAM-ee
• Vince vinss
• Whitney WHIT-nee

• NOAA updates
• 2011 Changes to the Valid Types of Tropical Cyclones 

Earlier Forecasts

• When Weather Went Really Crazy

Based on various climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts an increase of about 24% in the severity of extreme weather events during the next 20 months, compared with the previous period.

• Epic Flooding Could Inundate Large Parts of the U-S
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather

Climatic  Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond …
NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.  Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE  for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

Start of Meteorological Spring Signals Hyper Tornado Season:Based on several climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts a deadly peak tornado season in 2011.

• 2011 – 2012: A Time for Mega Disasters

• Megadisasters Loom

2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGA-DISASTERS – Emerging Calamities You CAN’T Prepare for, or Insure against

Climate Change, Global Broiling, Volatility and Extremes of Weather, Mega Swings of Temperature, Megadeluges and Megadroughts, Giant Dust Storms, Megaquakes, Super Volcanic Eruptions, Extreme Wildfires, Food and Water Scarcity, Deadly Diseases, Megadeaths (Forests, Plants, Animal Species…) Looming Megadisasters Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of  Human Population

Related Links

• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING
• Earth: Wounded and Feverish
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

Shallow Quake Strikes Western Turkey

M5.9 earthquake shook western Turkey, killing 2, injuring 30 and damaging buildings

The quake  was centered in the town of Simav (39.14°N, 29.16°E) and struck at a depth of about 6 km at 20:15UTC on May 19,2011.

One person reportedly died in Simav after jumping out of window in panic, and the second fatality occurred as a result of a heart attack. Several dozen people were injured from broken glass, or jumping off balconies, but there was no report of widespread damage, AP said.

“Most of the town of Simav was without electricity and telephone lines were down, reports said. At least one empty building collapsed in Simav and some other old buildings were also slightly damaged, said the Anatolia news agency.”

A politician who was on the fifth floor of an apartment building in Simav when the quake struck said: “It was so strong that we could not even move in the first few seconds. [Too afraid to return to their homes] people are waiting in their cars now.”

Distances [USGS]

• 80 km (50 miles) WSW (247°) from Kutahya, Turkey
• 118 km (73 miles) ESE (117°) from Balikesir, Turkey
• 118 km (74 miles) S (180°) from Bursa, Turkey
• 334 km (208 miles) WSW (256°) from ANKARA, Turkey

JAPAN QUAKE UPDATE

Data collected by underwater geodetic equipment placed on the seabed off the coast of Japan indicate that the March 11 Mega Quake moved the ocean floor laterally by about 20m (65ft), and caused also an upwards movement of 3m (10ft), a report said.

Related Links

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links