Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for June 12th, 2011

WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Posted by feww on June 12, 2011

SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,739 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

FIRE-EARTH Models show that global disasters could intensify in the 9 month period starting about July 2011 compared with the previous corresponding period (pcp).

Disaster Calendar 2011 – June 12 Entry

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • China. Death toll from heavy rain, flooding and landslides in central and southern china has climbed to at least 100, with about 80 others reported missing, reports said. The extreme weather events have affected up to 10 million people in 13 provinces, destroying about half million hectares of crops.
  • NY, USA. The WH has declared 21 upstate New York counties as disaster areas because of the damage caused by storms, flooding and tornadoes from April 26 to May 8.  The declaration covers the following counties: Allegany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton, Delaware, Essex, Franklin, Hamilton, Herkimer, Lewis, Madison, Niagara, Oneida, Onondaga, Ontario, Steuben, Tioga, Ulster, Warren, and Yates.
  • North Dakota, USA. A presidential disaster declaration has been issued for major portions of North Dakota including a  total of 42 counties, the Spirit Lake Nation, the Three Affiliated Tribes and the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa reservations. Counties covered by the declaration included Barnes, Benson, Billings, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Divide, Eddy, Foster, Grand Forks, Grant, Griggs, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Mercer, Morton, Mountrail, Nelson, Pembina, Pierce, Ramsey, Ransom, Renville, Richland, Rolette, Sargent, Sheridan, Steele, Stutsman, Towner, Traill, Walsh, Ward, Wells and Williams.
  • South Dakota, USA. Yankton county has been added to SD flooding federal disaster list, which already included Aurora, Beadle, Brookings, Brown, Buffalo, Clark, Codington, Day, Edmunds, Faulk, Grant, Hamlin, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, Jackson, Jerauld, Kingsbury, Lake, Marshall, Miner, Moody, Perkins, Potter, Roberts, Sanborn, Spink Stanley Sully and Union counties.
  • China. Some 103 children aged 14 or younger have been seriously poisoned and hundreds of others sickened from lead pollution in eastern china, a report said. The victims were found to have every high levels of lead contamination in their blood.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

Places Most at Risk of Nuclear DisastersGlobal

Nuclear power is harmful to the planet and all lifeforms. Any nuclear disaster striking anywhere on the planet has global implications.

Currently 32 countries operate nuclear power plants, 27 of which are building even more reactor units. Fifteen other countries that are currently without nuclear power  plan to build one or more plants.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (865)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, France, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

NOTES:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each place, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-induced catastrophes such as war, as well as human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… , and other geophysical events.]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which those factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecasts.

Related Links

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Links

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Who needs volcanoes in Arizona

Posted by feww on June 12, 2011

Wallow Mega Fire – June 12

Smoke from Wallow Fire more like a volcanic eruption

Air pollution from human enhanced natural events and anthropogenic causes could kill/seriously harm tens of millions of people: FIRE-EARTH

Mega Fire Burns Near Hannagan Meadow

Show Low Fire Engine 311 Stands by as the Wallow Fire burns near Hannagan Meadow. Photo by Firefighter Chris Francis. Credit US Forest Service.

Wallow Fire Progression Map June 11, 2011

Progression of the Wallow Fire as of Saturday, June 11, 2011 [Based on data obtained on June 10, 2011.]  Click image to enlarge.

Hazard Mapping System for Fire and Smoke [June 11-12, 2011]

Current HMS Analysis, Source: NOAA

Map Analyzed Fires from Satellites – June 12, 2011

Source: NOAA. Click images to enlarge.

Closeup Map of Analyzed Fires from Satellites

Map of the Critical Fire Weather Area – June 12, 2011.

Public Safety
State of Arizona says air quality in the Springerville-Eagar area is currently considered extremely hazardous. Residents with respiratory problems in the path of smoke may want to consider relocating temporarily until air quality improves. Motorists should exercise caution due to reduced visibility.

On Friday the PM2.5 concentration over eastern Arizona was more than 40 times higher than the federal health standard. By Saturday although the winds had swept most of the particulate pollution, the PM2.5 pollution was still 20 times the limit.

The outlook for Sunday was grim, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality said.

Entering the Twilight Zone

Eager, AZ just after evacuations. Wallow Fire, Arizona, 2011. Photo taken by Kari Greer for NIFC. Credit: US Forest Service. Click image to enlarge.

Wallow Fire Official Update (Source:  Area Command 3 Team)

  • Posted:  June 11, 2011, at 8:50 p.m.
  • Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee Counties, Arizona
  • Date Started: 05/29/2011
  • Cause: Human – under investigation
  • Aviation Resources: 15 Helicopters, 5 Air Tankers available, plus a DC-10
  • Injuries to Date: 6
  • Total Personnel: 3,208 (Includes 20 hotshot crews; 45 hand crews)
  • Residences: 2,714 threatened; 29 destroyed;5 damaged
  • Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
  • Outbuildings: 34 destroyed; 1 damaged
  • Other: 1 vehicle
  • Size: 430,171 acres  [Bulletin issued on June 11, 2011, at 11:13 a.m.]
  • Percent Contained: 5%

[NOTE: FIRE-EARTH estimate for Wallow Fire: ~ 510,000 acres burned as of posting.]

Current Evacuations
Full evacuation of Eagar and Springerville continues due to fire activity and health risks associated with air quality.

Sunrise, Greer, Blue River, Alpine, Nutrioso, and the following subdivisions along highways 180/191:

  • Escudilla Mountain Estates, Bonita, White Mtn. Acres, and the H-V Ranch.
  • This area includes County Road (CR) 4000, CR 4001, and CR 4225.
  • There have been no new evacuations in New Mexico.

Smoke and Fire Warnings

Latest Radar And Satellite Images


Goes West IR satellite image – 12 June 2011 at 04:30UTC

The Smoke Track

Projected surface Smoke Concentration, NM

Source: NWS. Click images to enlarge.

Weather hazard Forecast

US Weather hazard Forecast Map (June 12, 2011)

Wallow Fire  as Seen by MODIS on the Terra Satellite

Wallow Fire as seen by MODIS on the Terra satellite on June 9 at 10:55 am MST. Active fire areas are outlined in red.
The fire was more intense, producing less smoke than the previous day. Click image to enlarge.

Arizona Burn Scars Seen From Space

Imagery from the Landsat-7 satellite shows two glimpses of the same area: one taken on May 5, 2011 and the other on June 7, 2011. In the image from May 5, green areas indicate healthy vegetation and grasslands, light pink areas are naturally occurring rock or bare land. In the image from June 7, the red color indicates burned areas. In some cases, “hot” pink colors can also be seen along with smoke – these are active fire areas. Data from Landsat, a NASA-USGS partnership that was formerly managed by NOAA, is frequently used by NOAA for assessing land cover changes, especially in coastal and wetland ares. Copyright: NOAA [NOTE: FIRE-EARTH cannot confirm copyright validity.]
  View High Resolution Version

Murphy Complex Update (Source:  Northern Arizona Incident Management Team)

  • Time/Date Started: 3:28 pm, May 30, 2011 
  • Location: Nogales Ranger District in the Coronado National Forest, Five miles east of Arivaca, Arizona and four miles west of Tubac, Arizona
  • Cause: Human-caused. Under investigation.
  • Fuels: Grass, shrub, oak, mesquite
  • Size: 68,078 acres
  • Percent Contained: 90%
  • Estimated Cost to Date: $4,800,000 Resources Threatened: Areas surrounding Ruby Road.
  • Structures Lost: Historic Atascosa Lookout in the Atascosa Mountains and an outhouse at Pena Blanca Lake.

The Coronado National Forest and Chiricahua National Monument are closed due to extreme fire danger and concern for public safety.

Horseshoe Two Fire summary (Posted June 11, 2011, at 9:35 am MST)

The Coronado National Forest and Chiricahua National Monument are closed due to extreme fire danger and concern for public safety.

  • Date started: May 8, 2011
  • Number of Personnel: 1,153
  • Location: Portal, Ariz.
  • Crews: 9 Type 1 and 19 Type 2
  • Size: 134,615 acres
  • Engines: 52
  • Percent Contained: 45%
  • Dozers: 3
  • Cause: Human
  • Water Tenders: 34
  • Estimated Containment: June 22, 2011
  • Helicopters: 4 Type 1, 1 Type 2 and 2 Type 3
  • Total structures destroyed: 23
  • Cost to Date: $34,475,754
  • Source: Rocky Basin Type-2 Incident Management Team

Related Links

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