U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17

Wallow Fire prompts pre-evacuation alert due to high winds,  active fire behavior

Fire Summary:

• Location: Apache, Navajo, Graham, and Greenlee
• Injuries to Date: 8
• Counties, San Carlos Apache Tribal Lands and White Mountain Apache Indian Reservations, Arizona; Catron County, New Mexico;
• Total Personnel: 4,571
• Date Started: 05/29/2011
• Residences: 2,714 threatened; 32 destroyed; 5 damaged
• Size: 495,016 acres total
• Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
• Percent Contained: 33%
• Resources: 4,571 personnel; 15 Helicopters, 5 Air Tankers available; 312 Engines; 75 Water Tenders; 22 Dozers
• Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed;1 damaged;
• Vehicles: 1 destroyed.

Wallow Fire Map – June 16, 2011

Click image to enlarge (1.91 MB)

Fire Update

A pre-evacuation alert has been issued for the south side of Eagar due to high winds and active fire behavior. Fire fighters are currently attacking at least one spot fire caused by high winds. US 180/191 between Alpine and Springerville has been re-closed as of 2:40PM today, although Nutrioso residents are being escorted on HWY 180 to their homes.

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for Thursday and Friday from 11 AM to 8 PM MST due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Winds will be from the southwest from 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Conditions will be dry with relative humidities of 5% to 12%. Critical fire weather conditions can be expected today through Sunday.

• Air quality in parts of Cochise County could be considered hazardous because of heavy smoke from the Monument Fire burning south of Sierra Vista.

• State, Feds Meet to Assess Post-Fire Flooding Threats in AZ

Air Quality Monitor Maps – June 16, 2011

Hourly Ozone AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

Hourly PM2.5 AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

AQI color chart – air pollution hazard by EPA. Click to enlarge.

Horseshoe 2 Fire
Date Started: Sunday May 08th, 2011 approx. 11:00 AM
Location: T28S R31E Sect 32, Near Portal, AZ
Total Personnel: 1,335
Size: 184,198 acres
Percent Contained: 65%
Estimated Containment Date: Wednesday June 22nd, 2011 approx. 06:00 PM
Temperature: 95 degrees
Humidity: 6%

Pains Bay Fire – Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, NC
Cause: Lightning
Date of Origin: Thursday May 05th, 2011 approx. 02:30 PM
Location: Dare County, NC
Size: 45,294 acres

Track Fire, NM
Date of Origin: Sunday June 12th, 2011 approx. 11:00 AM
Location: 1 Mile North of Raton, NM
Size: 26,533 acres
Percent Contained: 25%

Hastings Fire Alaska
Date of Origin: Monday May 30th, 2011 approx. 03:15 PM
Location: Chatanika RIver; 15 miles NW of Fairbanks
Size: 23,110 acres
Percent Contained: 41%

Canyon Fire, TX
Date of Origin: Tuesday May 24th, 2011 approx. 07:15 PM
Location: 4 miles SE of Canyon, TX
Size: 16,803 acres
Percent Contained: 90%

Dos Amigos Fire, TX
Date of Origin: Wednesday June 08th, 2011 approx. 12:30 PM
Location: 15 miles W. of Robert Lee, TX
Size:19,391 acres
Percent Contained: 95%

Bird Ranch 2 Fire, TX
Cause: Lightning
Date of Origin Saturday June 11th, 2011 approx. 03:30 PM
Location: 13 miles W. of Paducah, TX
Size: 29,976 acres
Percent Contained: 90%

Texas Initial Attack 2011, TX
Date of Origin: Tuesday February 22nd, 2011 approx. 06:00 AM
Location: Merkel, TX
Size: 34,268 acres
Temperature: 100-110 degrees
Humidity: 15-30%

East Volkmar Fire, Alaska
Cause: Lightning
Date of Origin: Thursday May 26th, 2011 approx. 11:05 AM
Location: 25 miles northeast of Delta Junction.
Size: 58,050 acres
Percent Contained: 26%

Honey Prairie Complex Fire, GA
Cause: Lightning; Racepond: Under Investigation
Date of Origin: Thursday April 28th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
Location: Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 5 mi NE of Fargo, GA
Size: 196,369 acres
Percent Contained: 49%

Loop Fire, NM
Date of Origin: Monday June 13th, 2011 approx. 02:15 PM
Location: Carlsbad Caverns National Park
Size: 30,438 acres
Percent Contained: 70%

Coal Creek Fire, Alaska
Date of Origin Saturday May 21st, 2011 approx. 02:00 PM
Location Near Healy, AK
Size: 23,930 acres
Percent Contained: 80%

Miller Fire, Gila National Forest
Date of Origin: Thursday April 28th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
Location: 25 miles North of Silver City
Size: 88,835 acres
Percent Contained: 90%

Tunner Fire, Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado
Date of Origin: Sunday May 08th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
Location: USFS
Size: 17,482 acres
Percent Contained: 95%

Crooked Creek Complex Fire, NM
Cause Lighting
Date of Origi:n Friday May 06th, 2011 approx. 12:30 PM
Location: 15 miles northwest of Hope, NM
Size: 18,196 acres
Details of containment unclear.

Last Chance Fire, NM
Size: 53,342 acres
Details of containment unclear.

[Source: InciWeb ]

Related Links

• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings

• A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT

• Flooding Missouri River forces closure of Interstate 29 in four states

RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED ACROSS 8 STATES

Smoke from wildfires in the US (and Canada) are impacting the air quality in the country.

 Weather Hazards Map for June 17, 2011

Click image to enter NWS portal.

US weather Forecast Map: June 16 – 17

Air Quality Monitor Maps – June 16, 2011

Hourly Ozone AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

Hourly PM2.5 AQI Map (Animation). Source: AIRNow

AQI color chart – air pollution hazard by EPA. Click to enlarge.

Related Links

• Who’s Afraid of Wildfires
• U.S. Wildfires – June 16 Update

 

VolcanoWatch 16 June 2011

Kizimen: Volcano of the Week

Activity of Kizimen volcano at 09:00 UTC on June 12, 2011. Photo by Yu. Demyanchuk from Klyuchevskoy volcano flank. Source KVERT. Image may be subject to copyright.

Kizimen Volcano blew out a plume of ash, smoke and steam over the  Gulf of Kamchatka on February 1, 2011.  Kizimen recent eruptions are said to be both explosive and effusive. This natural-color image was taken by the MODIS aboard the Aqua satellite. Source: NASA-EO. Click images to enlarge.

Kizimen Volcano on Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula (elev. 8,153 ft/2,485 m: KVERT 13 june 2011),  ejected a plume of ash, steam and volcanic gasses on January 6, 2011, when ALI on NASA’s EO-1 satellite captured this natural-color image.  Kizimen had released continuous ash emissions since December 31, 2010, KVERT reported. Kizimen erupted explosively 83 years ago. Source: NASA-EO. 

Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

(based on SI /USGS report for 8 June-14 June 2011)

New activity/unrest:

• Mt Aso, Kyushu (Japan)  — [Group J]
• Dieng Volcanic Complex, Central Java (Indonesia)  — [Group K]
• Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)  — [Group J]
• Nabro, Eritrea — [Group C]
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile —  [Group D] 
• Yasur, Vanuatu (SW Pacific)  — [Group L]

FEWW Map of Volcanoes

Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Kizimen Volcano Alert: KVERT

• Issued: 20110613/01:29UTC
• Volcano: Kizimen (1000-23)
• Aviation Color Code: Red
• Source: KVERT
• Notice number: 2011/26
• Volcano Location: 55°08’N, 160°19’E
• Area: Kamchatka, Russia
• Summit Elevation (feet/meters): 8,153 ft/2,485 m
• Height of ash plume (feet/km) ASL and how determined: 6562 ft/ 2 km- Satellite
• Distance of ash plume from the volcano (mi/km): 323.18 mi/520 km
• Direction of ash plume or ash cloud drift from the volcano: East
• Time and method of observation: 20110613/0129Z – NOAA 19 (4m5)
• Start time of explosion and how determined: 2011/Z – unknown
• Duration of eruption (or indicate eruption is continuing): eruption is continuing

Ongoing Activity:

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Mayon, Luzon
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
• Tengger Caldera, Eastern Java (Indonesia)

Recent Satellite Images

Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Satellite Images Showing Floating Pumice

Massive eruptions at Chile’s Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex ejected volcanic rocks a distance of at least 20 kilometers from the center of volcano. This photo-like satellite image taken by the ALI aboard the EO-1 satelliteon on June 14, 2011,  and shows pumice floating on a mountain lake east of the volcano. Source: NASA-EO. Click images to enlarge.

Nabro Volcano EO-1 Satellite Image

Nabro eruption image taken by by the ALI aboard EO-1 satellite on June 14, 2011. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity

Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]

For this forecast, EarthModel calculated about 12,000 variables using more than 200 trillion discrete computational steps in each simulation.

In the case of a previous forecast, The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt, posted on April 22, 2010, the Model performed about 40 times as many steps.

FIRE-EARTH also employs other models including EARTH ENERGY MODEL (EEM), designed by EDRO, and several probabilistic and dynamic models.

The blog forecasts are based on deep knowledge of geophysics and very high level simulation of computer modeling.

A Note to Internet Prophets

If you are copying the results of FIRE-EARTH research, often  posted on the blog as incidental summaries, and representing them as that of your own using “mundane astrology,” or “psychic and para-normal abilities,” as a blogger recently put it, “to portend a significant period on earth of profound change,” then you would be acting disingenuously and maliciously.

By making false prophecies you would only contribute to compounding the human ignorance, albeit that of the gullible internet dwellers.

Most intelligent Internet users would instantly see through prophecies like: “The period between 2012 and 2016 will see drastic ‘readjustments’ as 7 transiting to transiting squares between Uranus in Aries and Pluto in Capricorn cause wide spread dislocations, famine, earthquakes, tornandoes, floods, volcanoes and a period of very dry weather; alternating between hot and cold.”

Please refrain from spreading ignorance on the Internet.