Fire Earth

Mass die-offs from human impact and planetary response to the assault could occur by early 2016

Archive for June 21st, 2011

43 Tornadoes Reported in 5 States

Posted by feww on June 21, 2011

Tornadoes move across North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and Texas

The strongest tornadoes touched down in Graham and Norton counties (about 10 miles north of Hill City), Kansas, the National Weather Service (NWS) reported.

NWS conducted a storm damage survey and has preliminarily rated one of the tornadoes as an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

Probability of Tornadoes in June

The Maximum Threat: June Tornado Alley Maps Based on 15-Year Data


This map shows the time for maximum probability of tornadoes for the month of June.


This map shows the time for maximum probability of SIGNIFICANT tornadoes (F2 to F5 or EF-2 to EF-5) for the month of June.


This map shows the time for maximum probability of VIOLENT tornadoes (F4 and F5 or EF-4  and EF-5) for the month of June.

The Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – Quick Chart

EF0: 65 TO 85 MPH
EF1: 86 TO 110 MPH
EF2: 111 TO 135 MPH
EF3: 136 TO 165 MPH
EF4: 166 TO 200 MPH
EF5: Wind speeds greater than 200 MPH

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2011 Disasters

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WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

Posted by feww on June 21, 2011

***PLEASE DISTRIBUTE WIDELY***  

WARNING: About 20 percent of the global population could perish by 2016

FIRE-EARTH’s population model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact on the planet and the planetary response to the anthropogenic harm  could occur by early 2016.

  • RANDOM. The mass die-offs would occur randomly.
  • UNSTOPPABLE. Once triggered, the chain-reaction created by the dynamics of mass die offs would burst out of control.

On May 15, 2011 symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began...

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

The extreme weather events triggered by anthropogenic climate change have a four-prong impact on humans over the next 50 months. FIRE-EARTH models forecast:

Food production:

  • Average decline of 22% in the global agricultural output
  • Loss of topsoil and worsening of soil quality
  • Increases in the size and occurrence of dead zones
  • Large decline in marine food sources

Spread of Disease

  • Substantial increases in the spread of diseases
    • vector borne
    • Air borne
    • water borne
    • food borne
  • Increase in the spread of human immunodeficiency
  • Significant decline in air quality (and corresponding increase in chronic respiratory diseases)
  • Worsening of water pollution

Physical Safety

Major increases in the number of deaths and injuries, as well as large scale displacements due to the loss of shelter and livelihood caused by extreme weather and geophysical events including:

  • Tornadoes
  • Hurricanes
  • Storms and Extreme Weather
  • Flash Flooding
  • Drought and Deluge
  • Extremes of Temperature
  • Wildfires
  • Loss of “Seasons”
  • Earthquakes*
  • Tsunamis*
  • Volcanic activity*

The Combined Effect

Social upheaval, regional conflicts and wars caused by mass migrations and scarcity of basic resources resulting from the combined effects of the above.

[June 21, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,730 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

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Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Eruption Forces More Flight Cancellations

Posted by feww on June 21, 2011

More flights from Sydney to New Zealand have been cancelled

All Qantas and Jetstar flights from Sydney to New Zealand have cancelled again as new clouds of volcanic ash from continued eruption at Chile’s Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano complex hits southern Australia’s airspace.

Qantas has reportedly cancelled up to a 100 domestic flights and eight trans-Tasman flights today, as of posting.

The ash has also severely disrupted Virgin flights, reports said. The ash could severely disrupt flight from New Zealand tomorrow.


Ash and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from Puyehue Volcano Complex eruptions. The Ash RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI IR8.7, IR10.8 and IR12.0 channels. Copyright Eumetsat 2011. Click image to enlarge.


Movement of volcanic ash clouds from Puyehue-Cordon Caulle Eruption between 5 and 12 June, 2011. Credit: NOAA and EUMETSAT

Latest Advisory by VAAC BUENOS AIRES

FVAG01 SABM 210200 2011172 0202
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20110621/0200Z
VAAC: BUENOS AIRES
VOLCANO: CORDON CAULLE 1507-141
PSN: S4052 W07220
AREA: CHILE-C
SUMMIT ELEV: 1798M
ADVISORY NR: 2011/074
INFO SOURCE: GOES-12 GFS/HYSPLIT MODEL
ERUPTION DETAILS: CONTINUOUS EMISSION
OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 21/0100Z
OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL150 MOV NE 15KT AREA BTN S4052 W07220 – S4000
W07000 – S4100 W06700 – S4030 W06300 – S3900 W06600 – S3900 W07000 -
S4052 W07220
FCST ASH CLD +06HR: 210800Z SFC/FL150 : S4052 W07220 – S3800 W07030 -
S3900 W06700 – S4000 W06300 – S4100 W06700 – S4052 W07220
FCST ASH CLD +12HR: 211400Z SFC/FL150: S4052 W07220 – S3800 W07200 -
S3900 W06800 – S4000 W06500 – S4100 W06200 – S4100 W06500 – S4030
W07000 – S4052
W07220
FCST ASH CLD +18HR: 212000Z SFC/FL150 : S4052 W07220 – S3600 W07300 -
S3800 W07100 – S3900 W06500 – S4000 W06100 – S4100 W06500 – S4000
W07000 – S4052
W07220
RMK: VA CLOUD AREA CAN BE IDENTIFIED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY
NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20110621/0800Z

VAAC Darwin


© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Click image to enlarge.

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U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update

Posted by feww on June 21, 2011

Monument Fire: AZ  Governor Deploys National Guard in Sierra Vista

(Posted June 20, 2011, at 4:33 pm MST on AZEIN)

  • Beginning Tuesday, June 21, the service members will provide area security for locations evacuated due to the fire…
  • “The Monument Fire continues to draw a massive response from federal, state and local authorities,” said Governor Brewer. “I’ve deployed these National Guard members to assist with the effort, and won’t hesitate to authorize additional manpower if necessary.”

Ozone Health Watch Issued for June 20; High Pollution Advisory Issued for June 21 

Fire Details (NO recent bulletin available)

  • Size: 26,980 acres
  • Containment: 27%
  • Fire Reported: June 12, 2011 at 1 p.m.
  • Location: Palominas Fire District, in the Huachuca Mountains
  • Jurisdiction: Coronado National Memorial/Coronado National Forest
  • Resources on Fire: There are 1,097 people assigned to the fire, including 22 crews, 108 engines, 9 helicopters, 10 Air Tankers and 4 Dozers.
  • Fire Behavior: Extreme fire behavior with sustained runs,medium spotting, and flame lengths in excess of 20 feet.
  • Growth Potential: Extreme
    Terrain Difficulty: Extreme
  • Remarks: The fire has burned a total of 1,526 acres within Mexico which are not included in the acres reported in block 15. Over 130 Federal, State and Local Law Enforcement officers are conducting evacuation and re-entry operations.
  • Pre-Evacuation Areas
    • High Knoll Area
    • West of Highway 92: Yaqui north to Buffalo Soldier Trail and west to Fort Huachuca
    • East of Highway 92: Camino Prinicpal north to Buffalo Soldier Trail and east to Aquaduct Road
  • For more Information Click HERE

Monument and Horseshoe Two Fires Satellite Image


Monument and Horseshoe Two Fires were burning fiercely in southern Arizona on June 19, 2011 when  MODIS on the Aqua satellite took this image at 1:05 pm MST. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Horseshoe Two Fire summary:

The fire moved through Marble, Emigrant and Woods canyons on June 19, 2011.

  • Size: 213,511 acres
  • Percent Contained: 80%
  • Date started: May 8, 2011
  • Number of Personnel: 1,230
  • Location: Portal, Ariz.
  • Total structures destroyed: 23
  • Cost to Date: $45,631,443

 

Wallow Fire

  • Size: 519,319 acres
  • Percent Contained: 51%
  • Residences: 2,714 threatened; 32 destroyed; 5 damaged
  • Commercial Property: 473 threatened; 4 destroyed
  • Outbuildings: 1,216 threatened; 36 destroyed; 1 damaged
  • Vehicles: 1 destroyed
  • Date of Origin: Sunday May 29th, 2011 approx. 01:30 PM
  • Location: Eastern AZ near Alpine, Nutrioso, and Springerville
  • Total Personnel: 3,531
  • Growth Potential: Extreme
  • Terrain Difficulty: High
  • Current Weather
    • Temperature: 72-88 degrees
    • Humidity: 8-9%

Honey Prairie Complex Fire, Georgia Satellite Image

  • Size: 261,663 acres
  • Percent Contained: 60%
  • Cause: Lightning
  • Date of Origin: Saturday April 30th, 2011 approx. 12:00 AM
  • Location: Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 5 mi NE of Fargo, GA
  • Total Personnel 629
  • Fire Behavior: Numerous hot spots around the fire perimeter. Active fire spread in Divisions Z toward the Northeast.
  • Growth Potential: High
  • Terrain Difficulty: High
  • Current Weather
    • Wind Conditions: 19 mph W
    • Temperature: 100 degrees
    • Humidity: 31%

Honey Prairie Complex Fire Map


Click image to enlarge.


MODIS Active Fire Detection Map SGA – SE. Click image to enlarge.


The Honey Prairie Fire, largest of nine separate fires dubbed the Honey Prairie Complex Fire were burning in and around the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge when MODIS on the Aqua satellite took this image. Source: NASA-EO. Click image to enlarge.

Texas Wildfires [Source Texas Forest Service]

  • TFS reported 43 new fires for 23,965 acres, including 12 new large fires.
  • National Preparedness Level: 3
  • Southern Area Preparedness Level: 3
  • TFS Preparedness Level: 4
  • Due to the shortage of aviation resources, four National Guard Blackhawk helicopters were activated in Austin.
  • Since June 14, 2011 TFS has responded to 148 fires for 72,707 acres.

New Fires

  • DYER Mill FIRE, Grimes County. This fast-moving fire three miles east of Whitehall has burned at least 4,000 acres. NO containment reported.
  • MIDWAY (COWBOY CHURCH) FIRE, Walker County. 1,000 acres, 5 percent contained. The fire is burning near Huntsville. One hundred sixty-three homes were evacuated near Midway. The fire is burning on both sides of Interstate 45 with crowning in the timber.
  • LONGFELLOW FIRE, Pecos County. 1,700 acres, 5 percent contained. The fire is burning in heavy brush 40 miles southeast of Ft. Stockton.
  • COWBOY FIRE, Jasper County. 322 acres, contained. The fire is a rekindle from a fire earlier in the month. It is burning in pine plantation.
  • McDONALD II FIRE, Clay County. 5,000 acres, unknown containment. The fire was threatening the town of Henrietta. Evacuations of numerous homes and businesses took place last night (June 19).
  • MASTERSON FIRE, Moore County. 5,000 acres, contained. The fire is burning 12 miles west of Lake Meredith. Gas and oil infrastructure and cattle are threatened.
  • ROCK CREEK FIRE, Stonewall County. 2,000 acres, 50 percent contained. The fire is burning seven miles northeast of Aspermont in tall grass.
  • PATILLO FIRE, Erath County. 300 acres, 60 percent contained. Evacuations occurred but no structures were lost.
  • SCHAFFNER FIRE, Clay County. 400 acres, unknown containment. The fire is eight miles northwest of Henrietta.
  • RIDDLE FIRE, Stonewall County. 600 acres, contained. The fire is burning seven miles southeast of Aspermont.
  • JRM FIRE, Throckmorton County. 2,500 acres, unknown containment. This fire is a complex of four lightning fires near Throckmorton. Twelve homes are threatened.
  • NANCE RANCHFIRE , Randall County. 350 acres, 90 percent contained. Two SEATs and a TFS task force worked the fire burning in grass six miles east of Canyon.

Uncontained Fires from June 19

  • BEARING BEARING FIRE, Polk and Trinity Counties. 14,000 acres, 40 percent contained. The fire is burning near Carmona. Two homes were destroyed and dozens have been evacuated.
  • POWER LINE FIRE, Jasper County. 2,500 acres, 25 percent contained. The fire is burning just south of Lake Sam Rayburn Dam. Five hundred homes are threatened.
  • SMAC FIRE, Brooks County. 20,000 acres, 40 percent contained. Extreme fire behavior was observed again yesterday on this fire 13 miles southwest of Falfurrias.
  • DHI FIRE, Pecos County. 8,000 acres, 80 percent contained. The fire is burning 35 miles southeast of Ft. Stockton.
  • HUDSON COMPLEX FIRE, Sterling County. 3,160 acres, 95 percent contained. The fire is burning 34 miles northwest of San Angelo.
  • FAULKNER FIRE, Crockett County. 2,200 acres, 95 percent contained. 900 acres, 40 percent contained. The fire is burning southwest of Big Lake.
  • FATHER’S DAY FIRE, Cochran County. 3,000 acres, 30 percent contained. One hundred homes were threatened in Whiteface.
  • 4097 FIRE, Newton County. 410 acres, unknown containment., Polk and Trinity Counties. 14,000 acres, 40 percent contained. The fire is burning near Carmona.Two homes were destroyed and dozens have been evacuated.

Other Stats for Texas Fires

Year-To-Date Totals (Source: Texas Forest Service)

  • Fires: 10,331
  • Acres burned: 3,018,008
  • Structures Destroyed: 1,325 units [More likely as many as 1,750 structures have been lost]
  • Six of the 10 largest recorded fires in Texas history have occurred in 2011, so far.

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Magnitude 6.5 Quake Strikes Northern Chile

Posted by feww on June 21, 2011

Strong Earthquake Measuring 6.5Mw Shakes Calama, Antofagasta, Chile

The quake was epicentered at  21.681°S, 68.187°W and struck at a depth of about 113 km, shaking the country’s mining heartland near the border with Bolivia, on Monday June 20, 2011 at 16:35:59 UTC.

The earthquake was too deep and far from the coastal areas to cause a tsunami. There were no reports of damage or casualty as of posting.

EQ Details

  • F-E Region: Chile-Bolivia Border Region
  • Magnitude: 6.5Mw
  • Time: 2011-06-20 16:35:59.4 UTC
  • Magnitude: 6.5 (Mw)
  • Epicenter: 68.42°W 21.84°S
  • Depth: 113 km
  • Status: M – manually revised
  • Source: GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,70°W


EQ Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP. Enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Distances [Source: USGS NEIC -WDCS-D]

  • 87 km (54 miles) NE of Calama, Antofagasta, Chile
  • 196 km (121 miles) E of Tocopilla, Antofagasta, Chile
  • 224 km (139 miles) SW of Uyuni, Bolivia
  • 1,297 km (805 miles) N of SANTIAGO, Region Metropolitana, Chile

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