Epic flood threats through summer as more rain predicted

EPIC DROUGHT and DELUGE

2011 summer flooding season could rival Great Flood of 1993—the worst in U.S. history: Forecasters

With rivers still running above flood stage and soils fully saturated, even small amounts of rain could cause  widespread flooding this summer, forecasters said.

The “Great Flood of 1993” submerged vast swathes of at least 9 states  from April to August, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage.

“The sponge is fully saturated – there is nowhere for any additional water to go,” said the director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood threat continuing through summer.”

Some of the flooding is expected to occur in the areas that have already experienced major to record flooding, NWS said.

U.S. Precipitation Map. 8 – 14 day outlook precipitation probability for July 14 – 20, 2011. Click images to enlarge.

U.S. Precipitation Map. Three-months outlook precipitation probability for July, August and September 2011.

The highest summer flood risk areas include:

• North Central U.S.: Souris River (North Dakota) and Red River of the North (border of North Dakota and Minnesota), Minnesota River (Minnesota), Upper Mississippi River (Minnesota and Iowa), and Des Moines River (Iowa)

• Lower Missouri River : From Gavin’s Point (Nebraska and South Dakota border) downstream along the border of Nebraska and Iowa, continuing through the borders of Kansas and Missouri then through Missouri to the Mississippi River
• Tributaries to the Lower Missouri: The James and Big Sioux Rivers in North Dakota
• Lower Ohio River Valley: The White, Wabash and lower Ohio Rivers
• East and West of Rockies: North Platte River in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska and Yellowstone River in Wyoming and Montana, Utah and Colorado

The worst-hit areas so far:

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North and South Dakotas.

U.S. Drought

FIRE-EARTH models show that the drought in the southern U.S. would persist at least through the summer, intensifying in several areas.

U.S. Temperature Map. Three-month outlook temperature probability map for July, August and September 2011.

Map of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events in the U.S.  Click images to enlarge. [All images on this page were sourced from NOAA/CPC]

Related Links

• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify Posted on June 12, 2011
• Disaster Forecast: The United States Posted on July 10, 2010
• 2011 Much More Disastrous Posted on September 13, 2010
• Megadisasters Loom Posted on December 11, 2010

Santiago Earthquake Alert

Large earthquake could strike Santiago region, Chile

FIRE-EARTH models show that a large earthquake measuring ≥8.8Mw could strike Santiago region, Chile.

Earthquake Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.8Mw
• Location: About 60 km west of Santiago, Chile
• Expected Time of Occurrence: 2011/ early 2012
• Probability: ~ 0.7

Related Links

• FEWW Volcano Links
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Powerful Quake Strikes Kermadec Islands

Magnitude 7.6 EQ Strikes E of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands

The quake which struck at a depth of 20km was followed by several significant aftershocks.

10-degree Map Centered at 30°S,175°W

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude: 7.6
• Date-Time: Wednesday, July 06, 2011 at 19:03:16 UTC
• Location: 29.312°S, 176.204°W
• Depth: 20 km (12.4 miles)
• Region: KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
• Distances:
  • 163 km (101 miles) E of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands
  • 347 km (215 miles) NE of L’Esperance Rock, Kermadec Islands
  • 913 km (567 miles) S of NUKU`ALOFA, Tonga
  • 1185 km (736 miles) NE of Auckland, New Zealand
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 14.1 km (8.8 miles); depth +/- 4.4 km (2.7 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Tsunami Evaluation 

ISSUED by PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
AT 19:59UTC 06 JUL 2011

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR ALL AREAS COVERED BY THIS CENTER.

Tsunami Wave Amplitude

“The largest wave we saw was a peak to peak amplitude of 1.9 meters which, looking at the sea surface, would be like a one meter rise. That wave was at Raoul Island very close to the earthquake and just to the west of the epicenter,” according to a spokesman at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

“Further away from the quake it is very small to no tsunami. Based on that information it was clear that it was very small and we cancelled [the tsunami warning.]”

Related Links

• Magnitude 7 Earthquake Hits Kermadec Islands
• Earthquake Cluster Zone Closing in on New Zealand
• Magnitude 6.5 quake strikes near Taupo, New Zealand
• GOOGLE: ‘The Search Engine from Hell’
• Significant earthquakes strike Ethiopia, New Zealand
• NOTICE: New Zealand Earthquake Forecasts

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
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