U.S. Deluge: Significant River Flooding Continues

96 locations to be flooded over the weekend: Forecasters

Threat of severe thunderstorms in the northern Plains and dangerous heat in the southern Plains and Desert Southwest: NWS

Significant River Flood Outlook for July 8-13, 2011. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge. Click here to enter interactive portal.

 Related Links:

•  Severe storms, stifling heat dominate weekend weather for central United States
•  Widespread flood threat to continue through summer

Click image to enter NWS interactive portal.

The temperature could rise to 107ºF (41.7ºC) in Woodward, OK, and 106ºF (41.1ºC) in Dodge City, KS, acording to NWS forecast.

At least a dozen other location could see the mercury rising above the 100ºF mark.

U.S. Flood Map – July 9, 2011

U.S. Drought Map

Related Links:

• U.S. Climate June: Extremes of Temp and Precipitation

Katla’s ice cap is melting

Melting of Katla’s ice cap is causing flooding near the volcano: Iceland Civil Protection Agency

Flooding may have been caused either by a small eruption, or geothermal heat emitted from the volcano, the authorities said.

Katla is one of Iceland’s largest and most active volcanoes. Located east of the Eyjafjallajökull glacier, near the southern end of Iceland’s eastern volcanic zone, Katla is buried beneath the Myrdalsjökull icecap. Its peak reaches 1,512 meters.

Map of Iceland’s Recent Earthquakes

Source: Icelandic Met Office. Image may be subject to copyright.

Katla’s last significant eruption occurred in 1928. The volcano is credited with sixteen major eruptions between 930 and 1918 occurring at intervals of 40–80 years.

Katla volcano, located near the southern end of Iceland’s eastern volcanic zone, is mostly hidden beneath the Myrdalsjökull icecap, which extends across the top of the photo. Valley glaciers descend from the summit icecap toward the coastal plain in this aerial view from the SSW. Explosive eruptions from Katla, among the largest tephra-producers in Iceland during historical time, have frequently been accompanied by damaging jökulhlaups, or glacier-outburst floods. Photo by Oddur Sigurdsson, 1985 (Icelandic National Energy Authority). Caption by GVP.

Iceland Volcanoes – Activity Forecast

FIRE-EARTH will await further development before updating the following forecast, if needed.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity

Probability of Volcanic Activity in Iceland

Simulations of FIRE-EARTH Geophysical Model (EarthModel) show that a major volcanic eruption may occur in Iceland by October 2011 with a certainty of 0.7 [P= 72%]

Iceland’s Volcanic Eruptions since 1902

• 2011 Grímsvötn
• 2010 Eyjafjallajökull
• 2004 Grímsvötn
• 2000 Hekla
• 1998 Grímsvötn
• 1996 Gjálp
• 1991 Hekla
• 1984 Krafla
• 1983 Grímsvötn
• 1981 Krafla 2 eruptions
• 1981 Hekla
• 1980 Hekla
• 1980 Krafla 3 eruptions
• 1977 Krafla 2 eruptions
• 1975 Krafla
• 1973 subaquatic eruption 5 km south of Landeyjar coast
• 1973 Heimaey
• 1970 Hekla
• 1963-1967 Surtsey
• 1961 Askja
• 1947 Hekla
• 1938 Grímsvötn
• 1934 Grímsvötn
• 1933 Grímsvötn
• 1929 Askja
• 1927 Askja
• 1926 northeast of Eldey
• 1924 Askja
• 1923 Askja
• 1922 Askja 2 eruptions
• 1922 Grímsvötn
• 1921 Askja
• 1918 Katla
• 1913 Austan Heklu
• 1910 Þórðarhyrna
• 1903 Þórðarhyrna
• 1902 Grímsvötn

List of Iceland’s volcanic eruptions since 1902 sourced from Icelandic Met Office Website.

Recent Volcanic Activity [Source: GVP]

29 June-5 July 2011

New Activity/Unrest: 

• Kirishima, Kyushu
• Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
• Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi
• Nabro, Eritrea
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile
• Soputan, Sulawesi

Ongoing Activity:

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Dukono, Halmahera
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Sakura-jima, Kyushu
• Santa María, Guatemala
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) |
• Taal, Luzon

Related Links

• The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt Posted on April 22, 2010
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption Links Page
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Iceland Volcanic Activity Posted on June 17, 2011

U.S. Climate June: Extremes of Temp and Precipitation

Oppressive heat wave and worsening  drought conditions smashed temperature records in the South and Southwest: NOAA

The average U.S. temperature in June climbed by1.4ºF above the long-term (1901-2000) average to 70.7ºF, while the average precipitation fell to 2.48 inches, 0.41 inch below the long-term average—the average was subject to wide variations across the country.

June 2011 temperature “divisional rank” maps. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Summary of U.S. Climate Highlights – June

• All-time high temperature records:
• Amarillo, Texas, 111ºF,  June 26 (previous record: 109ºF set two days earlier!)
• Tallahassee, Fla., 105ºF, June 15.
• 42 U.S. locations tied or broke all-time maximum high temperatures.
• Texas recorded average temperature of 85.2ºF, 5.6ºF above normal (1953 was previously the warmest June in 117-year recorded history).  Texas experienced the fourth consecutive June with temperatures at least 2ºF above the long-term average.
• Both Louisiana and Oklahoma (tied) had their second warmest June.

Drought

• Parts of the Southwest through much of the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast experienced ongoing intense drought.
• New Mexico had its driest June on record.
• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 63 percent of the Southeast was in moderate-to-exceptional drought at the end of June, compared to 51 percent at the end of May.
• The worst category of drought, exceptional drought, rose from 28 percent to 47 percent area in the South.

Wildfires

• Above average wildfire activity continued across the Southern tier of the United States broke all time records in June.
• Arizona and Mexico experienced their largest wildfire in recorded history.

For an accurate record of wildfires Jan – Jun 2011 see: US Wildfires Consume 7.7 Million Acres in 6 Months

US Precipitation Map – June 2011

June 2011 precipitation “divisional rank” map. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast for 2011 – 2012: FEWW Models show  the extremes of temperature and precipitation/drought intensifying over the next 12 to 18 months.

Related Links

• Los Alamos Fire Breaks NM Record
• The Wildfire that Broke Texas’s Back