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Archive for July 19th, 2011

Typhoon MA-ON Prepares for First Landing

Posted by feww on July 19, 2011

MA-ON to Make First Landfall at Midnight on July 19: Forecast

Typhoon MA-ON is currently a Cat. 1 Storm with sustained winds of about 145 km/hr, moving close to the island of Shikoku.

If the latest analysis made by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is accurate, the typhoon should make its first landing at about midnight (UTC) on July 19.

Typhoon MA-ON – VIS satellite image [1-km res.] Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Current Details (JMA)
Scale: Large
Intensity: Strong
Center position:  32.4°N, 133.1°E
Direction and speed:  NNE 15km/h (8kt)
Central pressure: 960hPa
Maximum wind speed: 40m/s (75kt)
Maximum wind gusts: 55m/s (105kt)
Area of 50kt or stronger winds : 190km E (100NM), 110km W
Area of 30kt or stronger winds: 650km E, 410km W

MA-ON Projected Path (24-hr Probability Map)

MA-ON Projected Path (72-hr Probability Map)

Click images to enlarge.

MA-ON Animation

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20 Tornadoes Hit North Dakota Over the Weekend

Posted by feww on July 19, 2011

North Dakota Attacked by 20 Tornadoes, 10 on Saturday, 10 on Sunday

Total of 179 severe weather reports for the weekend were received at SPC, including 20 tornado sightings.

Severe weather reports for July 16 17, 2011 (Source: SPC)

Probability map for July Tornadoes

The probability of having one or more days with a tornado within 25 miles of a point sometime during a month. The base data for all tornadoes are the reports from 1980-1994 and for significant and violent tornadoes are the reports from 1921-1995. The values are probabilities in percent. Source: Severe Thunderstorms Climatology

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Extreme Heat Threatens Central Plains, Midwest, Eastern U.S.

Posted by feww on July 19, 2011

Deadly heat here to stay

Triple digit temperatures to scorch many areas from central Texas to the Canadian border

Central plains states to remain under heat alerts as the high pressure system responsible for the extreme heat inches toward the East Coast: NWS

Heat Warnings, Watches and Advisories are in effect for parts of 18 central Plains and Midwest states, including:
  • North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio.

Hazards Assessment Map

NWS has forecast that excessive heat will persist from today through July 29 in all the eastern half of the country except for the Northeast. Click image to enlarge.

U.S. Daily Highest Max Temperature Records set in July 2011

Total of 1,048 records Broken (541), or tied (507) so far. Source: National Climatic Data Center. Click map to enlarge.

US Hazards Map

Maximum Heat Index (ºF) – July 20, 2011 forecast by NWS.

The high pressure ridge will cause high temperatures and high heat indices forecast at higher than 100ºF plus for Mon/Tues, and 105ºF plus for Wed/Thurs/Fri, NWS said.

Prognosis by NWS
A large ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the Atmosphere remains in place across the central U.S., keeping hot temperatures in place. The hot temperatures combined with high relative humidity will create dangerous heat indices well above 100 degrees over a large portion of the nation. The upper-level ridge will begin to expand eastward this week. By midweek, the hot temperatures will begin to spread into the eastern states,  with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s arriving in the Mid-Atlantic states as soon as Wednesday. High temperatures in excess of 100 degrees will be possible by Thursday across much of the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the southeast U.S. these triple-digit temperatures are forecast to remain in place across the eastern U.S. through the weekend.


The heat wave that has been affecting much of the central U.S. continues to produce dangerous levels of heat and  humidity from the Dakotas to Texas and eastward into the Ohio Valley. Heat index values as high as 131°F (55ºC) were reported yesterday and excessive heat watches, warnings and heat advisories are in effect today for a large portion of the central U.S., with temperatures in many locations exceeding 90 degrees, but feeling like 100-110 degrees or higher with the high humidity factored in. The large area of high pressure responsible for the excessive heat will expand eastward over the next several days, with high temperatures in the mid to upper-90s reaching the Mid-Atlantic states by tomorrow, and nearing 100 degrees by Thursday across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. Excessive heat is forecast to grip most of the eastern half of the country — with the exception of the Northeast and southern Florida — through at least the weekend.

Summary of today’s weather for the central United States include:
  • Dangerous heat continues in the Plains and gradually builds toward the East Coast
  • Severe storms possible from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, and the Northern Plains
  • A heavy rain threat extends from the Upper Texas Coast to the Central Gulf Coast (Source: NWS)

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