Tectonics Update – January 28

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  
• Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
• Probability of Occurrence
  • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
  • Jun –  Nov 2012: 68%
  • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
  • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
• Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted on March 16, 2011
• Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
• MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU
• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted on June 13, 2010
• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted on July 5, 2010
• Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted  on November 10, 2010

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links