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Archive for November 7th, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN’S Arm Battering the Philippines

Posted by feww on November 7, 2013

UPDATED AT 07:00UTC – November 7, 2013

Eric Schmidt you’re a LIAR!


Search term “Super Typhoon HAIYAN” does not list FIRE-EARTH on Google (we tried the first 12 pages), even though FEWW was the first source in the world to forecast Super Typhoon status for HAIYAN.


“Extraterrestrial” Typhoon HAIYAN, the most powerful storm of 2013, continues to intensify

At 5:30UTC on November 7, 2013 Super Typhoon HAIYAN was located about 690km ESE (106 degrees) of Homonhon Island (Eastern Samar, Philippines), moving WNW (285 degrees) at an average speed of about 30 km/hr.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN could cause large-scale destruction along its path, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.

HAIYAN is forecast to dump up to 500mm of rain on some parts of the Philippines.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN  (TY 1330)

  • Time: 05:30UTC – November 7, 2013
  • Movement: WNW (285 degrees) at 30 km/hr
  • Position: Near 8.9ºN, 132.0ºE
  • Location: About 690km ESE (106 degrees) of Homonhon Island (Eastern Samar, Philippines)
  • Max Sustained Winds: 290km/hr [increasing to about 300 km/hr —FIRE-EARTH Forecast]
  • Max Wind Gusts: 340km/hr [increasing to about 350 km/hr —FIRE-EARTH Forecast]
  • Significant Wave Height: 16m [Expected to rise —FIRE-EARTH Forecast]
  • Source: FIRE-EARTH and others

Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated in the Philippines ahead of the Super Typhoon’s arrival. The typhoon, locally named “YOLANDA,” is expected to make landfall as a Cat. 4C storm force in eastern Visayas, Philippines on Friday.

google logo of the day 2
Super Typhoon HAIYAN Special Message.

haiyan 7nov13
VISIBLE/INFRARED  [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] satellite image  – recorded at 04:30UTC on November 7, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Since 2011, several typhoons including WASHI, BOPHA and KROSA have affected millions of people in the Philippines, flattening coastal towns, killing more than 3,000 people, destroying crops, razing tens of thousands of homes, and causing up to $2billion worth of damage to public infrastructure.

Details of the most destructive typhoons to strike the Philippines can be found on this blog.

More details to follow…

Typhoon List 2013 – Stats for NW Pacific Basin

typhoon list 2013 4-11-2013

  • The 60 year average (1951-2010) No of Typhoons by 4 November: 23
  • No of typhoons so far this year: 30
  • Percent Increase: 30.4 [Calculated by FIRE-EARTH blog]

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80 Percent Chance of Major Catastrophe at Fukushima NPP

Posted by feww on November 7, 2013


Scale of potential catastrophe at Fukushima could dwarf a limited nuclear war

Four major factors would contribute to the probability of a major nuclear catastrophe occurring at Fukushima NPP during the fuel rods extraction operations at the plant’s No.4 reactor. —FIRE-EARTH Assessment

1. Probability of  significant earthquakes causing further damage to the reactor building during the recovery cycle: P≥ 0.9

2. Record of disastrous errors by the operator, TEPCO, especially after the 2011 Mega quake and tsunami struck: P≥ 0.9

3. State of fuel rods after the building was damaged by a hydrogen explosion in March 2011: UNKNOWN

4. Suitability of the  new “common pool” used for cooling the fuel rods: UNKNOWN

Based on the two known factors alone, the probability of a major catastrophe can be calculated at ≥ 0.81 [rounded down to eighty percent. ]

Fuel rod extraction process is scheduled to begin tomorrow, November 8, 2013, and would take about 14 months to complete, according to the operator.

The Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) at No. 4 reactor located on the upper floor of the building contains 1,533 units, includes 1,331 spent fuel units still emitting high levels of radiation, with the remaining units being unused fuel rods. The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) is about to extract and relocate the rods.

TEPCO says removal of the fuels rods, which are currently in a precarious state due to an explosion in the reactor building caused by hydrogen buildup in 2011, is the first step in the decommissioning of the nuclear plant which has so far been subject to triple meltdowns.

fukushima NO4 pool
The Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) at No. 4 reactor located on the upper floor of the building. Image shows debris scattered over spent fuel assemblies at the reactor’s storage pool as a result of a large explosion caused by buildup of hydrogen in the reactor building in March 2011. The explosion may have damaged some of the fuel rods, and cause them to fuse together. Image source: Handout – Tokyo Electric Company (TEPCO).

FIRE-EARTH has a 100% record of forecasting disasters at Fukushima NPP. See blog content.

More details to follow…

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