Fire Earth

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80 Percent Chance of Major Catastrophe at Fukushima NPP

Posted by feww on November 7, 2013


Scale of potential catastrophe at Fukushima could dwarf a limited nuclear war

Four major factors would contribute to the probability of a major nuclear catastrophe occurring at Fukushima NPP during the fuel rods extraction operations at the plant’s No.4 reactor. —FIRE-EARTH Assessment

1. Probability of  significant earthquakes causing further damage to the reactor building during the recovery cycle: P≥ 0.9

2. Record of disastrous errors by the operator, TEPCO, especially after the 2011 Mega quake and tsunami struck: P≥ 0.9

3. State of fuel rods after the building was damaged by a hydrogen explosion in March 2011: UNKNOWN

4. Suitability of the  new “common pool” used for cooling the fuel rods: UNKNOWN

Based on the two known factors alone, the probability of a major catastrophe can be calculated at ≥ 0.81 [rounded down to eighty percent. ]

Fuel rod extraction process is scheduled to begin tomorrow, November 8, 2013, and would take about 14 months to complete, according to the operator.

The Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) at No. 4 reactor located on the upper floor of the building contains 1,533 units, includes 1,331 spent fuel units still emitting high levels of radiation, with the remaining units being unused fuel rods. The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) is about to extract and relocate the rods.

TEPCO says removal of the fuels rods, which are currently in a precarious state due to an explosion in the reactor building caused by hydrogen buildup in 2011, is the first step in the decommissioning of the nuclear plant which has so far been subject to triple meltdowns.

fukushima NO4 pool
The Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) at No. 4 reactor located on the upper floor of the building. Image shows debris scattered over spent fuel assemblies at the reactor’s storage pool as a result of a large explosion caused by buildup of hydrogen in the reactor building in March 2011. The explosion may have damaged some of the fuel rods, and cause them to fuse together. Image source: Handout – Tokyo Electric Company (TEPCO).

FIRE-EARTH has a 100% record of forecasting disasters at Fukushima NPP. See blog content.

More details to follow…

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14 Responses to “80 Percent Chance of Major Catastrophe at Fukushima NPP”

  1. Paul C. said

    why all this happening to the japanese? is it bad luck or something else?

  2. Ron MD said

    they should have a big point deducted for every singly act of aggression they’ve committed against other nations.

  3. gus said

    • feww said

      We don’t normally teach probability lessons on this website, but you may want to look up “Independent probability” in a textbook before commenting.

      Ps. Ironically, the suggestive “w-avatar” for your comment was generated randomly!

      • gus said

        The probability that at least one of two independent events happens (“or”) is the same as the probability that they don’t both fail: that’s
        1- (1-P(A))(1-P(B)) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A)P(B)

        When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of BOTH occurring is:
        P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)
        But for a major catastrophe, as you put it, you don’t need both to occur. You only need an earthquare OR operator errors. the more ways there are for things to go wrong. The HIGHER the chance they will! So I think you owe me an apology.

        • feww said

          A major catastrophe could occur IF an earthquake causes further damage to the reactor building AND the operator fails to deal with the emergency.

          A competent operator will REDUCE the chance of a major catastrophe toward the lower limit, i.e., ZERO.
          An incompetent operator will INCREASE the chance of a major catastrophe toward the upper limit, i.e., 0.81

  4. Kate said

    Study confirms impossible to evacuate all residents before radiation exposure in wake of severe accident
    “A research project conducted by a research institute on environmental economics in Japan named Kankyo Keizai Kenkyujo has found that in the case of a severe accident at a nuclear power plant it will take at least 12 hours to evacuate everyone within 30 kilometers of the facility.”

    • feww said

      The chances are Japanese authorities ignore such reports as a matter of policy.
      The Japanese elite are among those unique species that are incapable of maturing beyond infancy.
      There’s ample historic evidence that the people in power would sacrifice any number of Japanese and foreigners to realize their goals, regardless of how immoral and nefarious their ambitions might be.

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