Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Strikes Andaman Islands

LEHAR strikes Andaman Islands with winds of about 110kmph gusting to 140kmph

The cyclone is expected to dump more than 25cm of rain over Andaman and Nicobar Islands en route to Andhra Pradesh coast, east India.

LEHAR is forecast to strike Andhra Pradesh state, India’s east-central coastline on the Bay of Bengal, near 18.3N, 84.1E on November 28.

Cyclonic Storm LEHAR. VI/INFRARED [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] satellite image recorded at 00:30UTC on November 25, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Cyclonic Storm LEHAR. VI/INFRARED [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] satellite image recorded at 11:30UTC on November 25, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

 LEHAR V. PHAILIN

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN. VIS/IR Satellite Image recorded at 01:30UTC on October 11, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. FIRE-EARTH Enhancement.

LEHAR Projected Path Superimposed on SST Schematic in Bay of Bengal. Timed at 11:30UTC on November 25, 2013. CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

On Friday, November 22, Cyclone HELEN struck coastal  Andhra Prades, killing at least 6 people, destroying or damaging about 170,000 hectares of crops, and forcingthe authorities to evacuate 25,000 people.

In October, Cyclone PHAILIN destroyed or damaged more than 500,000 mud houses, killing dozens of people and ruining 1.3 million hectares of crops.

Point of No Return

In 2004¹,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

[1. First draft posted by MSRB on Internet on February 26, 2005]

This post will be updated throughout the day …