URGENT – FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 50

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 50 has been released.

Related links

https://feww.wordpress.com/2-bulletin-board/

Rainstorms Battering Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Southern Italy

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

Extreme Rain Events trigger severe flooding, landslides in Indonesia

A landslide triggered by flooding in North Sumatra, Indonesia, has left at least a dozen people dead and many injured, officials said.

a low-pressure zone residing over southern Thailand and northern Malaysia has dumped more than 300mm of rain in some areas, causing flash flooding.

Thailand

Several southern provinces in Thailand have been ravaged by heavy rains and flash floods since Sunday. Many residents have been evacuated.

Malaysia

In Malaysia, torrential rains since Sunday have caused floods in the oil palm growing states of Johor and Pahang, forcing about a thousand evacuations so far, Reuters reported local media as saying.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning, as high winds and heavy rains batter the island country.

“The atmospheric disturbance has intensified into a low pressure area and is located very close to the East coast of Sri-Lanka. Under it’s influence, Showery and windy weather is expected over the country and the suburb sea area.

“Very heavy rain falls (more than 150mm) are also likely at some places.”

Extreme Rain Events Battering Southern and Central Italy

Storms and flooding in central and southern Italy have killed at least two people and forced thousands of evacuations since Sunday.

A train jumped tracks near the town of Cervaro in Italy’s central Lazio region, critically injuring several people.

Other affected regions included Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, and Pescara, reported ANSA.

A migrant boat was reportedly adrift in rough seas off the Calabrian coast with more than 140 people aboard.

Related Links

• Sardinia Declares a State of Emergency due to Cyclone CLEOPATRA Posted on November 19, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues to Rise

Philippine Mega Disaster:  Death toll climbs to 5,680 with 1,779 others missing

Death toll from Super Typhoon HAIYAN climbed to 5,680, after 48 bodies were recovered on Monday, said the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

The number of people missing also rose to 1,779, with 26,233 others reportedly injured due to HAIYAN [ locally known as YOLANDA.]

Total number of people affected by the Super Typhoon has officially climbed to more than 11.2 million [U.N. estimate is about 13.5 million,] with the number of displaced also revised up to more than 4 million.

The number of houses destroyed or damaged has increased to 1,180,837 units including 587,035 units completely flattened, according to NDRRMC SitRep No. 51, released today.

The total cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture [the estimate excludes cost of rebuilding homes] is pegged at over PhP34.36 billion [$1=43.77 Philippines peso] with PhP17.3 billion for losses in infrastructure and PhP17 billion for agriculture in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, and CARAGA, said the report.

State of National Calamity

The Philippine President issued Presidential Proclamation No. 682 declaring a state of national calamity on 11 November 11, 2013.

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

• FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimated the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

• Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

Related Links

• Death Toll Rises in Super Typhoon HAIYAN November 30, 2013

• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: WE TOLD YOU SO! November 20, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced November 17, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – November 18, 2013 November 18, 2013
• 4.24 Million Displaced in Super Typhoon HAIYAN November 23, 2013

Massive Storm System Impacting Western and Central U.S.

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

Powerful Storm System moving across the  U.S. Dumping Heavy Snow

Massive Winter Storm is bringing heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Central Rockies, Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest, causing  temperatures to plunge substantially in the West and Central U.S., said National Weather Service (NWS).

The temperatures are forecast to plunge as much as 30 degrees below normal.

• Up to 18 inches of snow could bury Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

The powerful storm system is moving across the Western and Central U.S. The storm is bringing heavy snow to parts of the Rockies and Northern Plains. The highest snow totals are expected to be in the Central Rockies where up to 24 inches of snow is expected. Further east, parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin may receive up to 18 inches of snow. Once the storm departs, bitterly cold air will follow. —NWS

U.S. Weather Hazards Map (Hazmap)  for Tuesday, December 3, 2013. Source: NWS/CRH. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH Blog.

A rather strong upper level low currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to continue dropping southeastward into the Northern Rockies by Wednesday, pushing a surface cold front south and east ahead of it. Very cold temperatures drawn in from Canada, combined with strong vertical lift, should be enough to support widespread heavy snow from the Northern and Central Rockies into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Winter Storm watches, warnings, and advisories are currently in effect for much of the Intermountain West, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest. Light to moderate snow will begin across the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest on Monday night, and eventually spread into the higher terrain of the Central Rockies by Tuesday afternoon. At this point, it appears the heaviest of the snow accumulations should be confined to the highest terrain of the Central Rockies with storm totals ranging from 12 to 18 inches across the Wasatch range of Utah, to as much as 24 or more inches in the Central Rockies. Farther east across extreme Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, anywhere from 10 to 18 inches of snow is possible. —NWS

Recent Extreme Weather Events

• Nor’easter Spawned by Deadly Thanksgiving Storm November 27, 2013
• Deadly Thanksgiving Storm Moves East November 26, 2013