FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 81

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 81 has been released.

Related links

https://feww.wordpress.com/2-bulletin-board/

No. of Days left: 707

Disaster Declared for Chile Quake Zone

SEISMIC HAZARD
LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG PERU-CHILE TRENCH
DISASTER DECLARED FOR EQ ZONE
.

Chile declares disaster zones after major earthquake

Chilean President has declared parts of northern Chile disaster areas after a large earthquake measuring 8.2Mw struck offshore about 95km NW of Iquique.

The quake struck off the northern coast of Chile late Tuesday, triggering tsunami waves of up to 2.1m that hit the coastal areas.

There have been reports of large landslides, fires, power cuts and prison escapes. The landslides reportedly blocked highways, hampering mass evacuation efforts.

Quake-related deaths stood at five, with more than 80,000 people displaced as of posting,  reported the interior ministry.

President Bachelet said she would visit Arica and Tarapaca regions on Wednesday, and would dispatch the military  to the disaster areas to prevent looting and disorder.

Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 8.2Mw
Location: 19.642°S, 70.817°W
Depth: 20.1km (12.5mi)
Date/Time: 2014-04-01 at 23:46:46 UTC
Nearby Cities: 95km (59mi) NW of Iquique, Chile

Aftershocks

Dozens of aftershocks, including at least 27 significant shocks measuring up to 6.2Mw have struck the area as of posting.

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP

Since march 16, hundreds of earthquakes have occurred along the Peru-Chile trench off the northern coast of Chile. A 6.7 magnitude quake struck the region on March 16, prompting the authorities to evacuate about 120,000 people in low-lying areas.

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile

On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Tsunami Warning/ Watch/ Advisory

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII, according to NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI.

Related Links

• M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile April 2, 2014
• Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile

SEISMIC HAZARD
LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG PERU-CHILE TRENCH
TSUNAMI WARNING
MASS EVACUATIONS
.

Major Earthquake Hits Northern Chile Coastal Area Triggering a Tsunami

10 Significant aftershocks have struck the quake zone including magnitudes 5.7, 6.2, 5.8, 5.7, 5.6, 5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 4.7, 5.2, 4.8, as of posting.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the Total Earthquake Energy associated with this Episode ≥ 0.25EJ. See Another significant aftershock… posted on March 17, 2014.

Earthquake Details [USGS/EHP]

Magnitude: 8.2Mw
Location: 19.642°S, 70.817°W
Depth: 20.1km (12.5mi)
Date/Time: 2014-04-01 at 23:46:46 UTC

Nearby Cities:

• 95km (59mi) NW of Iquique, Chile
• 139km (86mi) SSW of Arica, Chile
• 190km (118mi) SSW of Tacna, Peru
• 228km (142mi) SSE of Ilo, Peru
• 447km (278mi) SW of La Paz, Bolivia

Large earthquake strikes Chile, April 1, 2014. Source: USGS/EHP

• Tsunami waves are hitting Pisagua, Patache and Iquique, CHILE, as the  authorities evacuate coastal areas.
• Multiple landslides have blocked several highways,  hampering mass evacuations along coastal areas.
• The quake rattled buildings in Peru and Bolivian capital of La Paz, about 450km (278 miles) away.

Tsunami Warning/Watch

The first tsunami wave hit the coastal area within 45 minutes of the earthquake, said authorities. A tsunami warning has been issued for all of South and Central America’s Pacific coast.

The following bulletin was issued by the Pacific Tsunami Center.

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0131Z 02 APR 2014

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES – 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH – 10 KM
LOCATION – NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE – 8.2

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
MEJILLONES CL 23.1S 70.5W 0103Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 32MIN
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0108Z 0.56M / 1.8FT 10MIN
TOCOPILLA CL 22.1S 70.2W 0109Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 10MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0055Z 1.96M / 6.4FT 12MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0021Z 0.98M / 3.2FT 36MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.7S 70.4W 0034Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 18MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN

LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE – DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
——————————– ———— ————
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR
ECUADOR LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0239Z 02 APR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0327Z 02 APR
BALTRA_ISLAND 0.5S 269.7E 0429Z 02 APR
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0346Z 02 APR
BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 0417Z 02 APR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0433Z 02 APR
PANAMA PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 0427Z 02 APR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 0429Z 02 APR
PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 0441Z 02 APR
BALBOA_HEIGHTS 9.0N 280.4E 0645Z 02 APR
COSTA RICA CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 0441Z 02 APR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 0514Z 02 APR
CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 0531Z 02 APR
NICARAGUA SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 0557Z 02 APR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 0609Z 02 APR
CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 0609Z 02 APR
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 270.2E 0628Z 02 APR
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 268.8E 0642Z 02 APR
MEXICO PUERTO_MADERO 14.8N 267.5E 0649Z 02 APR
ACAPULCO 16.9N 260.1E 0711Z 02 APR
SALINA_CRUZ 16.5N 264.8E 0713Z 02 APR
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 272.4E 0655Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…WASHINGTON…OREGON…CALIFORNIA.

See also:

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile (March 17, 2014) and the update posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile.

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links

• Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014