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Ebola: 1.4 Million Cases by January 20, 2015?

Posted by feww on September 24, 2014

SCENARIOS 797, 444, 333, 080, 011

Ebola Cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia Could Reach 1.4 Million by January —CDC

Up to 1.4 million people in West Africa could be infected with the Ebola virus by January 20, 2015, according to researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

CDC says it has has developed a dynamic modeling tool called Ebola Response that allows for estimations of projected cases over time in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The agency’s estimate ranges between 550,000 and 1.4 million. The top range assumes that the number of cases, which currently stands at nearly 6,000, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), is underreported by a factor of 2.5 and should be adjusted to 15,000.

Projecting Ebola Case Estimates

CDC has used the Ebola Response modeling tool to calculate Ebola cases through mid-January in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model estimates a range of between 550,000 and 1.4 million cases by January 20, 2015. The top range of the case estimate, 1.4 million, is explained by the model’s assumption that cases are significantly underreported by a factor of 2.5.

The World Health Organization has projected that Ebola outbreak could infect 20,000 people by early November, failing rigorous infection control measures, and become an endemic disease in the region.

The death toll is at least 2,811 out of 5,864 reported cases, according to the U.N. agency.

CDC analysis, published in the journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), projects the cases in Liberia doubling every 15 to 20 days, and those in Sierra Leone doubling every 30 to 40 days.

Global Health Emergency

WHO declared the Ebola outbreak in West Africa  a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern,’ under the International Health Regulations on August 8, 2014.

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