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June 27th Flow Could Reach Ocean by May 2015

Posted by feww on October 30, 2014

SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 402, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02

Kilauea’s lava flow continues to cross Pāhoa Village

FIRE-EARTH estimates the June 27th flow could reach the ocean, currently about 10km away, by May 2015. Temperature of the lava exceeds 850°C along the leading edge of the most rapidly advancing part of the flow.

HVO Daily Update:  October 29, 2014 @09:12 AM HST (Wednesday, October 29, 2014 @ 19:12 UTC)

Coordinates: 19°25’16” N 155°17’13” W (19.421111N, 155.286944W)
Summit Elevation: 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Activity Summary: Kīlauea continues to erupt at its summit and within its East Rift Zone, and gas emissions remained elevated. Currently, the June 27th flow is advancing northeast through a residential area between Apaʻa St/Cemetery Rd and Pāhoa Village Road. During the past 24 hours, the leading edge of the most rapidly advancing part of the flow advanced at an average rate of roughly 10 m/hr (~11 yd/hr); between 2am and 630 am this morning, the rate of advance slowed to roughly 5 m/hr (~5.5 yd/hr). At 7AM, the flow front was about 240 m (~260 yd) straight-line distance from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO

Currently, the flow continues to advance at a rate of 5 m/hr (~5.5 yd/hr), said HVO.

  • GPS receivers in the summit area have recorded slight contraction across the caldera since early July. The most recent sulfur-dioxide emission rate measurements for the summit were 2,700–3,600 tonnes/day (see caveat here) for the week ending October 21, 2014.
  • The ambient SO2 concentrations near the vent vary greatly, but are persistently higher than 10 ppm and frequently exceed 50 ppm (upper limit of detector) during moderate trade winds.
  • The gas plume typically includes a small amount of ash-sized tephra (mostly fresh spatter bits and Pele’s hair from the circulating lava lake). The heaviest pieces are deposited onto nearby surfaces while the finer bits can be carried several kilometers before dropping out of the plume.

A view of the flow over Cemetery Rd./Apaʻa St. The transfer station is at the top of the image. Source: HVO

The June 27th flow remains active, and is slowly approaching Pāhoa Village Road. This photo was taken just before 10 am, and shows the flow front moving through private property towards a low point on the road. At 11:30 am today, the flow front was 215 m (235 yards) from Pāhoa Village Road. Source: HVO

This photo looks downslope from Cemetery Road, and shows the pasture and cemetery that the flow front advanced through several days ago. Much of the cemetery has been covered by lava, but a kipuka has left a portion of the cemetery uncovered for now. Source: HVO

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