Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Archive for the ‘2009 hurricanes forecast’ Category

Bangkok Primed for Collapse

Posted by feww on October 26, 2011

Collapse of Bangkok Would Follow Classic Pattern

The entire city of Bangkok could be inundated, the Prime Minister has warned, with many parts of the capital submerged by up to 1.5m (5ft) of floodwater.

Disaster Calendar 2011 – October 26

[October 26, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,603 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

  • Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok is now primed to  collapse. It’s no longer a matter of if but when the city would implode.
    • FIRE-EARTH Models show that back-to-back disasters could strike Thailand, targeting the country’s largest urban area and capital city, in the coming months until the region becomes mostly uninhabitable.
    • Bangkok is the center of a 20-million megalopolis, with more than 14.6 million people living in the metropolitan area.
    • Mesmerized by the 1980s and 1990s Asian investment boom, a large number of multinational corporations set up their regional headquarters in Bangkok. Many of these companies have been inundated and unable to function.
    • As of 2010, Bangkok was world’s 73rd largest city.
    • The urban sprawl of Bangkok Metropolitan Area extends into five neighboring provinces.
    • Bangkok accounts for about 41 percent of Thailand’s 587 billion dollar economy.
    • Located in the The Chao Phraya River basin, and split by a major river of the same name, Bangkok [aka, “Venice of the East”] is cross-crossed by a large system of canals and lies just two meters (6.5 ft) above sea level, with its southern periphery bordering the Bay of Bangkok.
    • The government has warned that a double whammy of   floodwaters from north running into the sea and high tides in the weekend could overwhelm the entire city, and linger for weeks.
    • “After assessing the situation, we expect floodwater to remain in Bangkok for around two weeks to one month before going into the sea,” Prime Minister Shinawatra said.
    • Floods have inundated more than two third of the country (62 of Thailand’s 77 provinces), claiming up to 400 lives, destroying or damaging at least a million homes, displacing 2.4 million people and affecting up to 10 million more.
    • Thailand is world’s largest rice exporter and was forecast to export about 10.6 million tons (or 31 percent of the global trade) of the grain this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
    • About 1.6 million hectares of standing crops (12.5 percent of total national cropped area) is destroyed or damaged according to the latest official estimates released last week. The actual figures could be as high as 3 million hectares or nearly a quarter of the total national cropped area.
    • “According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, nearly 9.9 million heads of livestock are at risk. It is expected that this estimate will rise in the central plains as the flood waters are topped by water discharges from major dams which are beyond or almost at full capacity.” FAO said.
    • The export price for grade B Thai white rice, Asia’s benchmark, has climbed by 13 percent so far this year to $625 per ton on October 19, reports said.
    • As of today, many grocery stores in the capital are rationing what little food is left on the shelves.
    • Drinking water has been contaminated in many areas, local reports said.
    • About a million people have so far sought medical attention with complaints ranging from skin rashes due to prolonged water exposure to diarrhea and other waterborne diseases.
    • Flooding has forced the closure of at least seven industrial parks bordering Bangkok.
    • The tourism industry, which employes 2.2 million people and accounts for 6 percent of Thailand’s economy, is also hit hard.
    • The cost of damage is estimated at 6 billion dollars and mounting.

[NOTE: Specific details of this forecast, which include the mechanisms of collapse and timeline, are not included. SEE blog content for explanation.]

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FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record

Posted by feww on May 24, 2009

Drought and Deluge: The Buzzwords for 2009

Extreme Weather,Tropical Storms, Heavy Rainfalls, Moisture Dump by Intertropical Convergence Zone and Other Hydrological Mechanisms Would Ensure Perpetual Drought and Deluge in 2009 and Beyond

If 2009 won’t be remembered for the frequency of tropical storms, it could most likely be recorded as one of the wettest years, so far.

Drought and deluge would be the buzz words for the remainder of this year. Already significantly large geographical regions have been inundated by flooding caused by extreme rain events and storms worldwide.

In northern New South Wales, Australia, a week of heavy rainfall and cyclonic winds  have left thousands of hectares of coastal plains under water. Huge waves have pummeled the coastal regions, disrupting shipping activities in  major ports.

Every major river in the region has risen above historical records, most of them bursting their banks. Floodwaters have swept cars into the sea. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes.

Residents make their way through the flooded streets of South Lismore May 22, 2009.  REUTERS/Michael Ross/Gold Coast Bulletin/Handout

In northern and northeastern Brazil, record heavy rains have forced up to half of a million people homeless, killing about 50. [Southern Brazil is experiencing extreme droughts, which have devastated the farmers in the region cutting their natural water supply by up to 50 percent.

An aerial view of the town of Anama, flooded by water from the Rio Solimoes river in Amazonas State, May 19, 2009. Floods and mudslides from months of heavy rains in northern Brazil have driven more than 300,000 from their homes and killed at least 44 people, according to Brazilian Civil Defense. REUTERS/Michael Dantas-A Critica (BRAZIL DISASTER ENVIRONMENT) BRAZIL OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN BRAZIL

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA says its 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts “a 50% chance of a near-normal season,” a 25% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. [The Atlantic hurricane region comprises the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.]

Just so that reader is not confused, NOAA provides the following table [information in the brackets added]

  • 9-14 Named Storms [Normal:11]
  • 4-7 Hurricanes  [6]
  • 1-3 Major Hurricanes [2]
  • An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median [100%]

[NOTE: This sort of forecast ensures that the forecaster is rarely embarrassed for not covering ALL probabilities]

Colorado State University report says:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have about as much activity as the average 1950-2000 season.

Expect about:

  • 6 hurricanes (average is 5.9),
  • 12 named storms (average is 9.6),
  • 55 named storm days (average is 49.1),
  • 25 hurricane days (average is 24.5),
  • 2 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and
  • 5 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).

University of North Carolina Forecast

The good professor marooned on the totally boring, uneventful University of North Carolina’s deserted campus had this to say [before academic rigor mortis set in]

Researchers at North Carolina State University believe that 2009 will bring a near-normal hurricane season, with storm activity in the Atlantic basin and the Gulf of Mexico slightly above the averages of past 50 years, but staying in line with those from the past 20 years.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and collaborators Dr. Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, and graduate student Danny Modlin, 2009 should see 11 to 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Frankly, a history professor and his undergrad students could have done … pretty much about the same.

For readers new to hurricane science, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1, and lasts through November 30 every year. Each tropical system is given a name as soon as their storm strength reaches  sustained winds of 39 mph or more. Tropical storms are upgraded to  hurricanes when sustain wind speed reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds rise to 111 mph.  The first TS for 2009 will be Ana. [See also FEWW Hurricane Scale.]

More will follow …

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