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Archive for the ‘Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook’ Category

Tropical Storm Alex Forms Near BELIZE

Posted by feww on June 27, 2010

TS ALEX the First Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 Nears the Coast of Belize

Northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing heavy rainfall.


Alex -
Visible/Infrared satellite image – Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Alex poses a potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico cleanup operation, though the risk is seen as minimal at this stage.


GOES East Hurricane Sector Infrared Image. Click image to update.

U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad (FAT) Allen was quoted as saying BP may be forced to suspend oil containment operations, “if a storm with gale-force winds were expected within five days at the leak site.” Reuters reported.

“We understand it’s moving westerly at this time and does not threaten the site,” said Allen, adding however, “we all know that the weather is unpredictable.”

Shell Oil Co has announced that it would also evacuate 300 non-essential employees from its Gulf of Mexico offshore operations as a precaution, the report said.


ALEX Projected Path: Various Dynamical Models Forecasts.  Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Meanwhile, the state of Louisiana filed a motion with the U.S. Appeals Court for the Fifth Circuit on Saturday opposing the DOI’s request to stay a ruling from the federal judge who overturned a six-month ban on new deepwater drilling in the Gulf, Reuters reported.

TS ALEX: Summary of Details  at 00:01 UTC, Sunday 27 June 2010

  • LOCATION: 17.4N 88.1W
  • Distances
    • About 25km (15 miles)  SE of Belize City
    • About 125km  (75miles) south of Chetumal, Mexico
  • Max. Sustained Winds 100km/hr (65 MPH)
  • Currently Moving W (280 degrees) at 19km/hr (12 MPH)
  • Min Central Pressure 996 MB (29.41 inches)

Satellite Imagery:

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Posted in Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, atlantic hurricanes 2010, Macondo well, Tropical storm | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Tropical Depression One: Forecast

Posted by feww on June 26, 2010

Tropical Depression One: Initial Motion Highly Uncertain

Tropical Depression One Moving West-Northwestward Toward Belize and the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico.


GOES EAST – IR Satellite Image (AVNCOLOR Enhancement). Click image to update.

Summary of Details @ 11:00 pm EDT 03:00 UTC (source: NHC)

  • Location: 16.7N 84.4W
  • Distances:
    • About 415 km (255 miles) ESE of Belize City
    • About 460 km (285 miles) ESE of Chetumal, Mexico
  • Maximum sustained winds 55 km/hr (35 mph)
  • Present movement: WNW or 295 degrees at 15 km/hr (9 mph)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1004 mb, 753.1mm (29.65 inches)

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (NOAA)


Click image to update forecast track.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

Related Links:

Posted in 2010 Hurricane Season, 2010 weather forecast, Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, atlantic hurricanes 2010 | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

1st Storm of Alantic Hurricane Season: Big Bang or Damp Whimper?

Posted by feww on June 14, 2010

Large, Well Organized, Low Pressure System 975 Miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands Moving NW at 15 MPH

A large, well-organized, low pressure system located about 1,000 miles WSW of the Cape Verde islands is moving northwestward at up to 15 MPH, NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center said.

Updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.   Click image to enlarge and update.

The system could become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, with a probability of 60 percent, the center added.

The system “is producing widespread cloudiness along with some showers and thunderstorms.”

Satellite images show a second system tailing the first.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans

Latest Global Montage (UW-SSEC)

Posted in Alantic Hurricane Season 2010, Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Atlantic ocean, tropical cyclone, tropical cyclone alex | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

TC Phet, SST and Intercontinental Dust Storms

Posted by feww on June 4, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Phet Could Reorganize Rapidly after Leaving Oman


Cyclone Phet, Water Vapor Image (4-km res)
. Source: CIMSS – Click images to enlarge.


Cyclone Phet, Visible/ IR Image (2-km res)
. Source: CIMSS – Click images to enlarge.

Sea Surface Temperatures Warm Enough for Busy 2010 Hurricane Season


A color-coded image from Japan’s Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite shows sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and part of the Pacific Ocean. Source: NASA E/O

Saharan Dust Blown Across the Atlantic


Photo-like satellite image taken by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite during successive orbits and stitched together on June 1, 2010, shows a Saharan dust plume approaching the northeast coast of South America, about 8,000km away.  “Each year, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere winter, storms like the one pictured here deliver about 40 million tons of dust from the Sahara to the Amazon River Basin.” Source: NASA E/O

Posted in 2010 Hurricane Season, Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, dust storm, dust storm in India, Dust storms, environment | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

Posted by feww on September 11, 2009

Wondering what happened to the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

As [tiny] Fred begins to fizzles out of its hurricane status in the Atlantic ocean about 1,190 km (740 miles) west of Cape Verde Islands, mot everyone must be thinking whatever happened to the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

jsl-l - Fred
Hurricane Fred. GOES Floater Imagery – Still Image – See inset for date and time. Click image to enlarge and update.

Summary of Hurricane Fred Status: Fred is weakening further as it slows down more.
AT 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10, Fred was located at 17.4°N 35.1°W, at max sustained wind speeds of about  140 km/h (85 mph) moving north at a forward speed of 5 km/h
(3 mph) with a min pressure of 735.1 mmHg (80 mb), NHC/NOAA said, expecting it to downgrade to a tropical storm within the next 24 hrs.

For one thing, it’s not over yet, at least not until the “fat lady” strikes. The peak months are August to October.

For another, the strengthening El Niño episode seems to be disrupting storm formation in the Main Hurricane Development Region, the Atlantic basin, AND forcing the storms away from land.

In fact, NOAA’s updated 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a 90% chance of a near-normal or below normal hurricane season.

NOAA recounts two competing climate factors.

1. The persisting “multi-decadal signal” that has been “associated with elevated levels of Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, along with warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.”

2. The El Niño episode, which is  “producing increased wind shear in the Main Hurricane Development Region.”

Based on these mix of climatic factors, NOAA updated prediction for the 2009 hurricane season is

  • 50% chance of a near-normal season
  • 40% chance of a below normal season
  • Only an unlikely 10% chance of an above-normal season

The outlook indicates a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges: 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 60%-110% of the median. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

For an in-depth analysis by NOAA see: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Related Links:

Posted in Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Caribbean Sea, El Niño, ENSO, multi-decadal signal, sea surface temperatures, tropical North Atlantic Ocean | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

 
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