2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA

Above Average Activity Predicted for This Year’s Atlantic Hurricane  Season

An “active to extremely active hurricane season” for the Atlantic Basin this year, says  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The six-month Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially begins June 1 through November 30, and covers the entire Atlantic Basin, is predicted to see above average activity this year, according to NOAA.

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 6 to 10 of those could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

The probability of occurrence for each of the above is 70 percent, NOAA says, indicating that activity tops the seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia seen  left to right in this satellite image taken on on September 16, 2010. Source: NOAA 

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA predicts “below normal” hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific for 2011 with probability of 70 percent.

• 9 to 15 named storms, including
• 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which
• 1 to 3 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

East Pacific hurricane season began May 15th.

Central Pacific Hurricane Season

For the Central Pacific Region, NOAA predicts:

• Below normal season with a probability of 70 percent
• Near normal season,  a probability of 25 percent
• Above normal season, a probability of 25 percent

NOAA predicts 2-3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific in 2011, with the average season experiencing 4-5 tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes).

2010 season

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.

The 2010 season (the third most active season on record jointly with 1887 and 1995) experienced 19 named storms, 12 of which developed into hurricanes (second most active hurricane season jointly with 1969.

There was NO hurricane landfall in the U.S. last year. In fact, there hasn’t been a hurricane landfall in the US since 2008 when 4 hurricanes (Dolly, Gustav, Ike and Kyle) struck.

2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map. Click image to enlarge.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Based on the blog models, recent trends set by the impact of weather extremes on population centers, especially since late 2009, and other geophysical and planetary factors, FIRE-EARTH believes 2011 could  prove less lucky than the last two years. We forecast a particularly costly hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin in 2011.  

About 40 million people in the coastal regions of the US, from  North Carolina to Texas, are most at risk of hurricanes.

The contiguous United States Population Concentration Map. Prepared by FIRE-EARTH based on a template provided by NOAA.

Atlantic Names 2011 (with pronunciations included for the audially challenged)

• Arlene ar-LEEN
• Bret bret
• Cindy SIN-dee
• Don dahn
• Emily EH-mih-lee   (!)
• Franklin FRANK-lin
• Gert gert
• Harvey HAR-vee
• Irene eye-REEN
• Jose ho-ZAY
• Katia ka-TEE-ah
• Lee lee
• Maria muh-REE-uh   (!!)
• Nate nait
• Ophelia o-FEEL-ya  (!!!)
• Philippe fee-LEEP
• Rina REE-nuh
• Sean shawn
• Tammy TAM-ee
• Vince vinss
• Whitney WHIT-nee

• NOAA updates
• 2011 Changes to the Valid Types of Tropical Cyclones 

Earlier Forecasts

• When Weather Went Really Crazy

Based on various climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts an increase of about 24% in the severity of extreme weather events during the next 20 months, compared with the previous period.

• Epic Flooding Could Inundate Large Parts of the U-S
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather

Climatic  Extremes, Primeval Geophysical Activities and WILD Weather to Wreak Mega Havoc in 2011/2012 and Beyond …
NOW IS THE PERFECT TIME TO POWER DOWN AND START THINKING HARD.  Encourage your folks, friends and neighbors to join in!! BECAUSE  for most of us the GAME would be OVER soon.

• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

Start of Meteorological Spring Signals Hyper Tornado Season:Based on several climatic indicators and recent weather trends, FIRE-EARTH forecasts a deadly peak tornado season in 2011.

• 2011 – 2012: A Time for Mega Disasters

• Megadisasters Loom

2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGA-DISASTERS – Emerging Calamities You CAN’T Prepare for, or Insure against

Climate Change, Global Broiling, Volatility and Extremes of Weather, Mega Swings of Temperature, Megadeluges and Megadroughts, Giant Dust Storms, Megaquakes, Super Volcanic Eruptions, Extreme Wildfires, Food and Water Scarcity, Deadly Diseases, Megadeaths (Forests, Plants, Animal Species…) Looming Megadisasters Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of  Human Population

Related Links

• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING
• Earth: Wounded and Feverish
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

Tropical Storm Colin – Satellite Images

Tropical Depression Four Strengthens into Tropical Storm Colin

Colin is the third tropical storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

TS COLIN – IR (NHC Enhancement) Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

TS COLIN Summary of status at 5:45UTC on August 04, 2010 [Estimated by Fire-Earth]

• Location: Near 16.9N 57.5W
• Position: About 465 km (250NM) NNE (27.3 degrees) of Barbados
• Max Sustained Winds: 60 km/hr
• Wind Gusts: 85 km/hr
• Movement: WNW (290 degrees) at 30 km/hr
• Max Wave Heights: 1.2m (4 feet)

A natural-color image of Tropical Storm Colin captured by MODIS on NASA’s Terra on 9:40 a.m. EDT (13:40 UTC). Click image to enlarge. Download large image (3 MB, JPEG)

Image shows the storm’s rainfall amounts, as measured by NASA’s TRMM, on August 2, 2010. Source: NASA. Click image to enlarge. Download large image (121 KB, JPEG)

TD ALEX – UPDATE June 28

TS ALEX UPDATE  @ 03:00UTC – June 28

ALEX has regained strength, as expected, and is now a TROPICAL STORM once again.

Fire Earth Moderators believe ALEX could become a hurricane before its next landfall.

TS ALEX At 03:00UTC – June 28

• LOCATION: 19.4N, 91.3W
• Distances
  • About 90km (55miles) SSW of Chetumal, Mexico
  • About 755km (470 miles)  ESE OF Tampico, Mexico
• Max. Sustained Winds 75km/hr (45 MPH)
• Currently Moving WNW  (300 degrees) at 11km/hr (7 MPH)
• Min Central Pressure 991 MB (29.26 inches)

TS ALEX VIS/IR Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Earlier:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO, MAY RESTRENGTHEN

ALEX Projected Path: Various Dynamical Models Forecasts.  Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

TD ALEX SUMMARY OF STATUS at 21:00 UTC (June 27, 2010)

• LOCATION: 19.2N, 90.9W
• Distances
  • About 90km (55miles) SSW of Chetumal, Mexico
• Max. Sustained Winds 55km/hr (35 MPH)
• Currently Moving WNW  (300 degrees) at 15km/hr (9 MPH)
• Min Central Pressure 999 MB (29.50 inches)

Related News:

• Florida braces for oil shift from tropical storm
• Drilling protesters join hands on oiled Fla. beach
• Tropical Storm Alex heads for Gulf after drenching Belize, Mexico

Satellite Imagery:

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• Tropical Storm Alex Forms Near BELIZE
• Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster: Headline News
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean

Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean

Virgin Islands, El Salvador, Dominican Republic Hit by Tropical Wave

A tropical wave moving across the Caribbean has caused extensive flooding in Virgin Islands, El Salvador and Dominican Republic.

In the Dominican Republic, where there was at least one storm-related death, the authorities were forced to evacuate at least 3,000 people, local reports say.

The so called ”Tropical Disturbance 10,’ which is currently located between Jamaica and the tip of Honduras, and is moving westward at about 20km/hr (13 mph), has been producing strong showers with thunderstorms, and choppy sea condition with waves of up to 2.5m (7 feet).

There is a high probability (60%) this system could become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, NWS said.

GOES EAST – IR Satellite Image (AVNCOLOR Enhancement). Click image to update.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans

• Real Time POES Imagery Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop

• SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water – Global

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• 2010 Hurricane Forecast

2010 Hurricane Forecast

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season has an 85% chance of seeing above normal activity: NOAA

NOAA estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

• 14-23 Named Storms,
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook (NOAA)

The 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 75% chance of a below-normal activity, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of an above normal stormactivity.

NOAA  estimates a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity in the Eastern Pacific 2010 season:

• 9-15 named storms,
• 4-8 hurricanes,
• 1-3 major hurricanes,
• An ACE range 45%-95% of the median.

Collapse Survivors

A major challenge for the collapse survivors would the transfer of scientific knowledge and  and know-how from the pre-collapse to post-collapse period.

Major Hurricanes in 2010: Twice the Cent Avg

Serial No  1,550. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by the authorities/Google in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

Twice More Major Hurricanes in 2010 Than the Century Average : Forecasters

As the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicts an above-average hurricane season for 2010, NOAA NWS fails to adopt a user-friendly hurricane scale.

Hurricane Ike bears down onto the upper Texas coastline with category 2 wind speed of 177 km/hr (110 mph), September, 2008. Thanks to the inadequacies of Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, many could have attested to being hit by a category 3 storm. Image Source: NOAA

ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2010

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will see above-average activity with increased chances of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall,  the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team have predicted.

“We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken.” They said.

They forecast 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 4 of them major, with a 69 percent probability [long-term average probability is 52 percent] at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season which officially begins on June 1 and lasts for 6 months.

Major hurricanes are those classified as Category 3a or above on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of at least 178 km per hour (111 mph).

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2010. Source: Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University (By Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray)

Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane making landfall on the following coastal areas:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century:  52%)
• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 45% (average for last century: 31%)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 44% (average for last century: 30%)

Probabilities for a minimum of one major hurricane tracking into Caribbeans (10-20°N, 60-88°W)

• 58% (average for last century: 42%)

The forecasters estimate:

• 8 hurricanes (average: 5.9),
• 15 named storms (average: 9.6)
• 75 named storm days (average: 49.1)
• 35 hurricane days (average: 24.5)
• 4  major (Category 3,4 or 5) hurricanes (average: 2.3)
• 10 major hurricane days (average: 5.0).
• The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average.
• Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is expected to be  about 160 percent of the long-term average.

Related Links:

• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record

Fewest named hurricanes since 1997

El Niño helped ensure fewest named storms and hurricanes in 13 years

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30 with Nine named storms,  three hurricanes including 2 major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher.

2009 Atlantic Storm Tracks – Preliminary. Credit: NOAA

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season clocks up 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes including 2 major hurricanes, NOAA said

“The reduced activity was expected and reflects the development of El Niño during the summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “El Niño produced strong wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic, which resulted in fewer and shorter-lived storms compared to some recent very active seasons.”

Although Claudette and Ida, struck the U.S. mainland with tropical storm force winds,  no hurricanes hit the U.S. in 2009, the first time in three years. Only 38 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions were flown  over the Atlantic Basin this year compared to 169 in 2008, signifying a less active season, NOAA said.

“El Niño is expected to reach peak strength this winter, and will likely continue into the spring. It is far too early to say whether El Niño will be present next summer,” added Bell.

Related Links:

• El Niño
• Hurricanes 2009
• CSU Lowers Hurricane Forecast
• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record
• 2009 Hurricane Season: Storms in Teacup, or Nasty Surprises?
• Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

STORM UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

What are the chances of Ida coming back?

At 06:00 UTC (12:00 AM CST) TS Ida was located about 150 km (95 miles) south-southwest of  Mobile Alabama.

Dangerous storm tide created by Ida will raise water levels by up to 1.5 meter ( 5 feet) above ground along the coast near and to the East of where storm center makes landfall, as well as in areas of onshore flow in southeastern Louisiana, NOAA NHC said. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Summary of TS Ida Status:

As of 06:00 UTC Tue Nov 10  (12:00 AM CST)
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained winds :  96 km/h (60 mph)
Moving: N  (360 degrees) at  16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 29.47 inches (998 mb)

What are the chances of Ida Coming Back?

What’s the probability of Ida doing a U-Turn, restrengthening into a hurricane-force storm  for a third time, and slamming into the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, again?

FEWW Moderators believe there’s a 1 in 5 chance [P=0.2] that remnants of Idea could be pinwheeled back into the Gulf of Mexico by a slowly developing system to the east, moving NNW and striking the coast of Louisiana, and further to the west, with renewed intensity.

Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image and Animation

Click image to animate.

GOES AVNCOLOR Enhancement – Still image Dated as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.

Storm Ida – Earth Observatory

Ida captured by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on November 9 at 6:17 a.m. U.S. Central Time. Though Ida was still a hurricane, it was quickly weakening. While spots of heavy rain remain, the storm’s circular organization is no longer apparent. NASA image courtesy Hal Pierce, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek, NASA’s Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Cumulative Wind History

Click image to enlarge.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• Ida Became a Hurricane, Again!
• Could Ida Become a Hurricane?
• Hurricanes 2009

Ida Became a Hurricane, Again!

November 10, 2009

LATE UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

UPDATE: Hurricane IDA

Hurricane Ida Status at 600 AM CST 12:00 UTC
Location: 25.8N, 88.2W
Maximum sustained: 130 km/h(80 mph)
Current direction: NNW (335 degrees) at 26 km/h (16 mph)
Minimum Central pressure:  993 MB  (29.32 inches)

NOAA Said:

Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern gulf coast, but will become steadier and heavier later today into Tuesday.  Total storm accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches, are possible through Tuesday from the central and eastern gulf coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee valley and the southern Appalachians.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

.

IDA Reaches Hurricane Intensity

In

Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

FEWW Moderators forecast that  Ida had a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm.

At 05:15 UTC Sun Nov 8, 2009  [11:15 PM CST Sat Nov 7] NOAA reported that data from its buoy 42056, located in the NW Caribbean Sea, approximately 195 km (120 miles)  ESE of Cozumel, Mexico, had reported  a 1-minute sustained wind of about 120km/h (75 mph), which indicated Ida has once a again become a hurricane.

FEWW Moderators further believe that Hurricane Ida, could strengthen to a Category 3A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale [Cat 3 on Saffir-Simpson scale] within the next 24-48 hours.

Hurricane Ida Status at 07:15 UTC (1:15 AM CST)

Location:  20.2N, 85.4W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 km/h (90 mph) – with higher gusts
Present Movement: Northwest (325 degrees) at about 17 km/h (10 mph)
Minimum central pressure: 983 MB

With 30-km hurricane force winds radii, and tropical storm force winds extending 220 km from the center, hurricane IDA is currently a compact hurricane.

Hurricane IDA. NOAA GOES 12 – Still Image dated Nov 08, 2009 – NASA GSFC GOES Project. Click image to enlarge and update.

GOES Full Disk. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Hurricane Ida. GOES-East – Still Sat Image. AVNColor enhancement. Click image to enlarge and update.

Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

GOES-East/Meteosat-9/MTSAT/ IR Mosaic Color Background  – Atlantic Region. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Hurricane Ida. Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge and update.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge and update.

NOAA Storm Advisory

• AT 115 AM CST (0715 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
• A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
• A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Other Images

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Water Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vaopr
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – JXTpSCT

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Atlantic – Infrared
• Northwest Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – NCrASAT

Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

Ida, Now a Tropical Depression, Could Become a Tropical Storm Soon.

But will it strengthen further to a hurricane-force storm as it enters the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico?

FEWW Moderators believe, as of posting, that Ida has a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression IDA

GOES Sat Image- Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6 [03:00 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2009]
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained:  56 km/h (35 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 11 km/h (7 mph)
Min pressure: 1006 mb

IDA is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel late Sunday EST.

POES Composite – Daily Sea Surface Temps.

Click image to enlarge and update.

Cumulative Wind History

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: NHC/NOAA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. Source: NHC/NOAA

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge and update.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Source: NHC/NOAA

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Other Images

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Water Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vaopr
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – JXTpSCT

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Atlantic – Infrared
• Northwest Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – NCrASAT

TS Grace Heading Towards Ireland

Tropical Storm Grace is Getting Stronger as it Heads Towards Southern Ireland

TS Grace is now slightly stronger,  heading rapidly NE over the NE Atlantic in the Direction of Southern Ireland.

Tropical Storm Grace – EUMETSAT – Visible Image – Still  Frame – Date and Time as Inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. Source: NOAA/NHC/NWS

Grace Wind Speed Probabilities. Still Frame. Click on image to update and enlarge. Source: NOAA/NHC/NWS

Details of Grace

• Location: At 09:00 UTC center of TS Grace was 43.0 N, 18.0 W about 940km NE of the Azores.
• Direction: Grace is moving at about 44 KM/HR, and is forecast to continue this motion until making a gradual turn to NNE Monday night and Tuesday, as it slows down.
• Max Sustained winds: 110 km/h with higher gusts, but expected to weaken in the next 24 hours.
• Tropical Storm Force winds: 85km from the center
• Estimated Min Central Pressure: 742mm Hg (989 Mb)
• Source: NHC

Related Links:

• Hurricanes 2009
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

How Hot Is Your Ocean?

Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans Daily Sea Surface Temps – POES Composite

Atlantic Ocean Daily Sea Surface Temps – POES Composite. Source: NOAA

East Pacific Ocean Daily Sea Surface Temps – POES Composite. Source: NOAA

For real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis see:  Reynolds SST Analysis