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Technical information and scientific data from the US Government agencies (NASA, EPA…) are subject to variation due to political expediency.
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Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …
FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO2 concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.
To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated. Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA
Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960 and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide:
Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Continues Rising
Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
May 28 – 400.27
May 27 – 400.29
May 26 – 400.45
May 25 – 399.97
May 24 – 399.84
Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week beginning on May 19, 2013: 399.91 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 396.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 379.36 ppm
Atmospheric increase of CO2 over 280 ppm in weekly averages of CO2 observed at Mauna Loa. Source: NOAA/ESRL
-oOo-
TS BARBARA intensifying on its way to southern coast of Mexico
BARBARA is forecast to reach hurricane strength before slamming Mexico’s southern coast on Wednesday, NHC said.
The storm, currently moving northeast at about 7MPH, is forecast to cross Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico’s narrowest point.
The center has issued a hurricane warning from Oaxaca’s Puerto Angel to Barra de Tonala, and a tropical storm warming from Barra de Tonala to Boca de Pijijiapan in Chiapas state.
BARBARA is expected to dump up to 12 inches of rain over eastern Oaxaca through western Chiapas after making landfall, generating a storm surge of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels, NHC added.
Vegetable greenhouses are flooded in Bijie City, SW China’s Guizhou Province, May 29, 2013. The region experienced an extreme rain event from Tuesday through Wednesday. (Xinhua/Deng Jie)
-oOo-
DISASTER CALENDAR – May 29, 2013— SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,018 Days Left
Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,018 Days Left to ‘Worst Day’ in the brief Human History
President of Namibia has declared a national drought emergency due to significantly below-average precipitation.
An estimated 331,000 people, 14 percent of the Namibia’s population of 2.324 million, in rural communities across 13 regions have now been classified as food insecure so far this year.
An additional 448,000 people have been classified as moderately food insecure.
Those moderately food insecure could rapidly become food insecure, UN reported.
About 109,000 children under age 5 living in rural households classified severely and moderately food insecure are at risk of malnutrition due to reduced availability, access and utilization of food, compounded by limited access to safe water and improved sanitation, UN said.
Namibia: Rainfall Anomaly for Q1 2013. Source: SADC FANR
Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
11 Regions across the country are without water tanks for additional storage.
About 32% of households and communities use boreholes as their main sources of water, followed by piped water (20%) and public taps in neighboring houses (19%).
As a result of the severe drought, water tables in boreholes are currently low with reduced yields.
The cost of water has risen and most households are now using their limited funds to buy food instead of water.
Only 33% of households have improved sanitation facilities.
50% of the population practice open defecation. [Source: U.N.]
-oOo-
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Extreme Rain Events Flood San Antonio, Texas
At least two people were killed on Saturday as torrential rains in San Antonio triggered severe flooding forcing the rescue of about 240 people, officials said.
San Antonio was inundated with about 10 inches of rain Saturday, the second-wettest-day recorded, San Antonio Express-News reported.
“Saturday was not only the wettest day in May ever recorded, but with 9.87 inches of rain at the San Antonio International Airport, it was the second wettest day ever recorded in San Antonio, according to the National Weather Service. The wettest day on record is Oct. 17, 1998, when 11.26 inches of rain fell.”
NWS issued Flood Warnings for rivers affecting Bexar, Wilson and Karnes counties.
-oOo-
Average CO2 at Mauna Loa: Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
A state of emergency has been declared in Plumas County after the magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck the area Thursday, causing damage both to infrastructure as well as homes and businesses.
“The earthquake did not injure anyone but did cause moderate damage and was felt by people as far away as the Bay Area, Reno and into Oregon,” said a report.
-oOo-
DISASTER CALENDAR – May 26, 2013— SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,021 Days Left
Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,021 Days Left to ‘Worst Day’ in the brief Human History
Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013: FIRE-EARTH
FIRE-EARTH projections show, based on the data provided by Mauna Loa Observatory, the average CO2 at Mauna Loa could climb to 400ppm in the next 6 weeks.
Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week of March 24, 2013: 397.92 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 395.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 377.06 ppm
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa [April 2012 – March 2013.] The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Recent Mauna Loa CO2
February 2013: 396.80 ppm
February 2012: 393.54 ppm
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Recent Global CO2
January 2013: 395.09 ppm
January 2012: 392.44 ppm
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. [Images sourced from ESRL/NOAA]
Historic
Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2012.
Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005]. Source: ESRL/NOAA. Click on image to view larger image. Click HERE for full size figure .
Global temperatures could rise more than expected, new study shows
The kinds of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide taking place today could have a significantly larger effect on global temperatures than previously thought, according to a new study led by Yale University geologists. Their findings appear December 20 in the advanced online edition of Nature Geoscience.
The team demonstrated that only a relatively small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was associated with a period of substantial warming in the mid- and early-Pliocene era, between three to five million years ago, when temperatures were approximately 3 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today.
Climate sensitivity—the mean global temperature response to a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2—is estimated to be 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, using current models.
“These models take into account only relatively fast feedbacks, such as changes in atmospheric water vapor and the distribution of sea ice, clouds and aerosols,” said Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale and lead author of the paper. “We wanted to look at Earth-system climate sensitivity, which includes the effects of long-term feedbacks such as change in continental ice-sheets, terrestrial ecosystems and greenhouse gases other than CO2.”
To do this, the team focused on the most recent episode of sustained global warmth with geography similar to today’s. Their reconstructed CO2 concentrations for the past five million years was used to estimate Earth-system climate sensitivity for a fully equilibrated state of the planet, and found that a relatively small rise in CO2 levels was associated with substantial global warming 4.5 million years ago. They also found that the global temperature was 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than today while CO2 levels were only between about 365 and 415 parts per million (ppm)—similar to today’s concentration of about 386 ppm.
“This work and other ancient climate reconstructions reveal that Earth’s climate is more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than is discussed in policy circles,” Pagani said. “Since there is no indication that the future will behave differently than the past, we should expect a couple of degrees of continued warming even if we held CO2 concentrations at the current level.”
0O0
Other authors of the paper include Zhonghui Liu (Yale University and The University of Hong Kong), and Jonathan LaRiviere and Ana Christina Ravelo (University of California, Santa Cruz).
This study used samples provided by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program and was funded by the National Science Foundation and the Yale Climate and Energy Institute.
Contact: Suzanne Taylor Muzzin
suzanne.taylormuzzin@yale.edu
Yale University
0O0
Global warming likely to be amplified by slow changes to Earth systems
Researchers studying a period of high carbon dioxide levels and warm climate several million years ago have concluded that slow changes such as melting ice sheets amplified the initial warming caused by greenhouse gases.
The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that a relatively small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels was associated with substantial global warming about 4.5 million years ago during the early Pliocene.
Coauthor Christina Ravelo, professor of ocean sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said the study indicates that the sensitivity of Earth’s temperature to increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is greater than has been expected on the basis of climate models that only include rapid responses.
Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to increased atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures. Relatively rapid feedbacks include changes in atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and sea ice. These short-term changes probably set in motion long-term changes in other factors–such as the extent of continental ice sheets, vegetation cover on land, and deep ocean circulation–that lead to additional global warming, Ravelo said.
“The implication is that these slow components of the Earth system, once they have time to change and equilibrate, may amplify the effects of small changes in the greenhouse gas composition of the atmosphere,” she said.
The researchers used sediment cores drilled from the seafloor at six different locations around the world to reconstruct carbon dioxide levels over the past five million years. They found that during the early and middle Pliocene (3 to 5 million years ago), when average global temperatures were at least 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than today, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was similar to today’s levels, about 30 percent higher than preindustrial levels.
“Since there is no indication that the future will behave differently than the past, we should expect a couple of degrees of continued warming even if we held carbon dioxide concentrations at the current level,” said lead author Mark Pagani, an associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.
0O0
Contact: Tim Stephens
stephens@ucsc.edu
831-459-2495
University of California – Santa Cruz
Earl Watkins Will Get another Coal-fired Power Plant at Holcomb
How they did it!
First the company hatched an energy bill up and called it renewable energy bill. The kind of renewable deal that allows them to also build a coal-fired power plant!
Then thy pulled a few strings thereby removing the only obstacle to their plan: The former Kansas governor, Kathleen Sebelius. Ms. Sebelius was promoted to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in Obama Admin.
The existing 360-megawatt Holcomb Station power plant in Garden City, Kansas (undated photo), burns 1.5 million tons of coal from Wyoming’s Powder River Basin each year . Its operators sought to sextuple its output. Image and caption: Sierra Club. Image may be subject to copyright.
Sebelius had vetoed four previous bills, opposing even the expansion of Sunflower’s existing Holcomb plant.
[Why did she let go? We can only presume that she let go because they told her that she could do a lot more good [sic] as Secretary of Health and Human Services.]
When the coast was finally clear, the Kansas legislature overwhelmingly passed the renewable energy bill on Friday by 103 to 18 votes.
The Senate had already voted 37 to 2 in favor the previous day.
The new Kansas governor, Mark Parkinson, is expected to sign the bill because he was its architect, of course. It was he who proposed a 895-megawatt coal plant at Holcomb. Gov Mark Parkinson, who was sworn in on April 28, wasted no time kowtowing to the Sunflower CEO Earl Watkins.
“In October 2007, Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) Secretary Rod Bremby rejected plans for two 700-MW coal-fired units in western Kansas at Holcomb. It was the first time a U.S. coal plant was rejected solely on the basis of health risks from carbon dioxide emissions.” Reuters reported.
“The cost of the new plant was not revealed. In early 2007, when three 700-MW units were proposed to be built at the existing 360-MW plant, the cost was near $4 billion.”
“Using an industry estimate of $2,100 per kilowatt, the 895 MW plant would cost about $1.9 billion.”
Coal-fired plant produce about twice as much CO2 as natural gas plants for each megawatt of electricity they generate.
Sunflower’s Watkins expects the new plant to be operation within 5 years. Most of the power from the Holcomb plant (about 80 percent) would be exported to Tri-State Generation in Colorado and Golden Spread Electric Cooperative, based in Amarillo, Texas.
Sunflower is expected to be awarded a substantial federal renewable energy stimulus fund for its proposed Sunflower Integrated Bioenergy center, which will handle ethanol, biodiesel, and algae energy projects.
Gov Mark Parkinson has achieved all of the above on behalf of Sunflower in little over a week, thereby securing himself powerful clients [yes, he too is a lawyer] after his plitical career has run dry.
Airlines are flying less and polluting less, but that’s not enough!
Airlines carbon emissions may decrease by about 8 percent in 2009 because the airlines are slashing flights due to a drop in both cargo and passenger demand, Reuters reported.
“About 6 percent of the forecast carbon cut will come as a result of carriers flying fewer planes in 2009, and a further 1.8 percent reflects steps to improve energy efficiency [sic,]” the International Air Transport Association (IATA) was reported as saying.
IATA Director-General Giovanni Bisignani also reported that the airline industry will lose up to $5 billion in 2009 due to the economic slowdown.
Japan Airline (JAL), one of the world’s major airlines, has lost about 20 percent of its passengers and 40 percent of its freight business.
Climatologist James Hansen echos the call for action
“I have been described as the grandfather of climate change. In fact, I am just a grandfather and I do not want my grandchildren to say that grandpa understood what was happening but didn’t make it clear,” Hansen said last week.
Hansen says Barack Obama’s four-year administration, which begins with his inauguration as US president on Tuesday, offers the world a last chance to avoid global disaster. Melting glaciers and ice caps, flooded coastal cities, species extinctions and expanding deserts await mankind, he says.
“We cannot now afford to put off change any longer. We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead.”
Hansen correctly senses that the world is collapsing; however, his timetable is too optimistic. Perhaps the optimism arises from a lack of appreciation of fragility of ecosystems and the mechanisms of collapse, the progress of which are exponentially intensifying.
Mandarinfish or mandarin dragonet (Synchiropus splendidus) in aquarium-Muséum Liège (Belgium). Credit: Luc Viatour. GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or later.
Native to the Pacific [an area extending from the Ryukyu Islands to northern Australia,] the tiny [6cm long] mandarinfish are reef dwellers, and feed on small crustaceans.
‘We are seeing a historic hydrological event taking place with unprecedented river levels occurring.’ —Brian Pierce, meteorologist, National Weather Service.
Mississippi river surges over at least 23 levees and another 30 barriers are at risk, as the Midwest floods move south.
In 1993, devastating floods, sweeping down Missouri and Mississippi rivers, surged levees and destroyed communities from St. Louis to northern Louisiana.
Mississippi River floodwaters engulf a farm about 15 miles north Quincy, Ill. after the south portion of the Indian Graves levee breached. (Tribune photo by Michael Tercha / June 18, 2008). Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!
“They all told us, `The levees are good. You can go ahead and build,”‘ said Parks, who did not buy flood coverage because her bank no longer required it. “We had so much confidence in those levees.”
“People put all their hopes in those levees, and when they do fail, the damage is catastrophic,” said Paul Osman, the National Flood Insurance Program coordinator for Illinois. “New Orleans is the epitome; a lot of those people didn’t even realize they were in a floodplain until the water was up to their roofs.”
“We reported to the president in ’94 that the levee system was in disarray, the levees were not high enough to take care of any potential problem. People didn’t understand their flood risk and there wasn’t good co-ordination across federal, state and local governments,” said Gerald Galloway, a professor of engineering and flood control expert.
“The same thing applies today,” Galloway said. “It’s amazing that in the face of [Hurricane] Katrina and now this particular challenge that we continue to relearn the same lessons.”
Galloway’s recommendations to improve the levee system were basically ignored. He said that he’s experiencing much the same response now from officials as in 1993.
An Egyptian rice farmer shows his drought damaged rice crop and cracks in the rice terrace soil caused by more than 30 days of no rain in a village near Balqis, 260 km northeast of Cairo. EGYPT: June 17, 2008. Reuters. Photo by NASSER NURI. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a statewide drought in California after two years of below-average rainfall. “We have a serious drought,” said Governor Schwarzenegger on Wednesday.
“For the areas in Northern California that supply most of our water, this March, April and May have been the driest ever in our recorded history,” Schwarzenegger said. “As a result, some local governments are rationing water, developments can’t proceed and agricultural fields are sitting idle.”
“We must recognize the severity of the crisis we face, so I am signing an executive order proclaiming a statewide drought and directing my Department of Water Resources and other entities to take immediate action to address the situation.”
The executive order enables water officials transfer water around California swiftly dealing with unusually dry conditions that are destroying crops, affecting water quality and creating extreme fire hazards across the state, one of the nation’s top farming regions.
To enlarge, right click on the image and select View Image
“Mr Schwarzenegger warned that conditions could be even worse next year if there was another dry winter. The governor wants voters to approve a $12 billion bond to fund delta, river and groundwater improvements, conservation and recycling efforts, and reservoirs. But legislators have not agreed to the plan despite ongoing negotiations with the administration.” USA today reported.
“This drought is an urgent reminder of the immediate need to upgrade California’s water infrastructure,” Schwarzenegger said. “There is no more time to waste because nothing is more vital to protect our economy, our environment and our quality-of-life.”
[Note: Gov Schwarzenegger’s statement is fundamentally flawed and factually incorrect because “to protect our economy,” i.e., business as usual, results in the destruction of “our environment” and therefore harms “our quality of life.”]
Tropical storm Arthur, Atlantic’s first named storm for 2008, lashed Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula with strong winds of about 40 mph (65 kph), dumping heavy rains on Saturday.
Infrared image GOES Floater (updated every hour or so). NOAA – National Hurricane Center
As if with clockwork precision, Arthur was formed just hours before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season about 75 miles (125 km) northwest of Belize City, Mexico.
Alma, the tropical storm formed in the Pacific, fizzled out on Friday after sloshing Nicaragua’s Pacific coast, killing three people.
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (purple). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. (Graph and caption NOAA)
Eight protesters were arrested Tuesday morning after critics of Duke Energy chained themselves to construction equipment at the Cliffside [coal-fired] Steam Station.
Duke is adding an 800-megawatt boiler to the Rutherford County plant, which has drawn intense opposition from environmental advocates.
Fire Earth 
