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Archive for the ‘Cyclone TOMAS’ Category

TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

Posted by feww on March 17, 2010

ULUI Goes to Australia

Two for the price of one cyclone!

See also:

Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia

TC ULUI is moving slowly (6 km/hr) toward the east coast of Australia (Queensland).

Two of the available models (NGP and CMC) suggest ULUI could make landfall close to 20ºS  latitude which could mean it will strike the Australian coast as a cat 3A or 2B hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of up to 180 km/hr (gusts of up to 230 km/hr).

A third model (GFS) predicts landfall south of the 20ºS latitude, which might suggest a Category 1 hurricane force, or weaker, with sustained winds of up to 150km/hr (wind gusts of about 180 km/hr).

JTWC suggest land fall south of 21.5ºS latitude with sustained winds of up to 120 km/hr (wind gusts of about 155 km/hr).

ULUI is currently located about 1,320km NORTHEAST of Townsville, and 1,300km NNE of Rockhampton, QLD, Australia.

Moderators’ forecast concurs closer with the CMC model, for now.


Dynamic Model Forecasts. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.


Tropical Cyclone ULUI
showing near-perfect longitudinal symmetry – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 17, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

Two for the price of one cyclone!

Cyclone TOMAS is still going strong with sustained winds  of about 220 km/hr and gusts of up to 260 km/hr. Its currently located near 26.3S, 176.5W.


TCs ULUI and TOMAS – Visible image – MTSAT EAST (NOAA)

Other Images and Animations

Related Links:

Posted in australia, Cyclone TOMAS, Queensland, storm, ULUI | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16

Posted by feww on March 16, 2010

TOMAS a Cat 4A Storm on FEWW Scale

TOMAS Wobbled Toward Main Fiji Islands, Then Moved South

As the cyclone went past Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest Island, it wobbled toward the main islands; however, you couldn’t see what exactly happened because the high res satellite images were withdrawn from various sites.

Having checked the continuous loop images earlier, the moderators  noticed that up to 3 original frames in the MTSAT image loops appeared to be “gap fillers.”

Latest satellite image of TOMAS, as of posting:

Back in FIJI …

The Government of FIJI has just declared a State of Disaster for the Northern and Eastern divisions of Fiji.

The declaration was made by Fiji’s National Disaster Council due to “the serious situation that had resulted in Tropical Cyclone Tomas’ wake in the North.” Fiji Times reported.

Officials said “The same situation as the North is likely to be repeated in the Eastern Division.” The Eastern division is made up of the Lomaiviti and Lau groups of islands.
Fiji’s “Northern division” consists of Vanua Levu, Fiji’s second largest island, Taveuni and dozens of smaller islands including Cikobia, Fiji Times said.

More than 17,000 people fled their homes in Western division, the report said.

“The National Disaster Council has declared a state of disaster in the northern division and eastern division,” National Disaster Management Office operations officer Anthony Blake said.

The Council is particularly concerned about the islands of Cikobia and Qelelevu because they have not heard anything from them since the cyclone struck there about 36 hours  earlier.

At least 50 properties had been destroyed, as of posting, reports said. However, the extent of destruction and damage is bound to be much greater given the force of TOMAS and vulnerability of Fiji islands to storms.

“On Gau island to the east of Viti Levu, Lamiti village head teacher Solomone Rasiga told Fiji commercial radio the villagers sheltered overnight from fierce winds and heavy rain.” AFP reported.

“The wind is very strong, there is a lot of damage to crops,” he said.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 16 at 00:01UTC

  • Position:  18.2S 179.9W
  • Max Sustained Winds :  210km/hr (~ 115 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: ~ 260km/hr ( 140 kts)
  • Movement: South
  • Forward Speed:  9km/hr (~ 05 kts)
  • Location: 315km  (170 NM) EAST-NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
  • Comment: TOMAS is a Category 4A hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to start weakening in about 48 hours, becoming fully extratropical in 72 hours, as it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
  • Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
  • Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.


Cyclone TOMAS Projected Track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 16 at 00:01UTC

  • Position: 13.3S 157.8E
  • Max Sustained Winds:  232 km/hr (~ 125 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: 290km/hr (~ 155 kts)
  • Movement:  West
  • Forward Speed:  ~ 7 km/hr ( 4 kts)
  • Location: About 1,710km (925 NM) NNE of Brisbane, Australia
  • Maximum significant wave height: 12m (36 feet)
  • Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
  • Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 72  hours due to increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing ocean heat content. The cyclone is  a Category 4B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale.


Cyclone ULUI Projected Track. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.


MTSAT – IR Image


MTSAT – Colorized IR Image


MTSAT – Visible Image

Related Links:

Posted in cyclone, Cyclone TOMAS, hurricane, ocean heat content, storm | Tagged: , , , , | 12 Comments »

Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15

Posted by feww on March 15, 2010

TOMAS a Cat 3B hurricane, still intensifying; ULUI weakened to a Cat 3C

In the last 24 hours, Cyclone TOMAS has grown into a Cat 3B Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is still intensifying.  ULUI has weakened from a super cyclone force to a Cat 3C hurricane in the same period.

A very low probability of increased interaction exists between the two  systems. If the odds were to improve, whereby pinwheeling occurred between the two cyclones, TOMAS could change track, moving westward, then wobbling close to, around, or over the Fiji islands for a much longer period than anticipated.


Cyclone TOMAS. Latest GOES Image as of posting. (GOES Sat. NOAA). Click image to enlarge.


(L to R) Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS. MTSAT Colorized IR Image (NOAA).  Click image to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

  • Position:  15.6S 179.4W
  • Max Sustained Winds :  ~ 195km/hr (105 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: ~ 240km/hr ( 130 kts)
  • Movement: Southwestward
  • Forward Speed:  5km/hr (~ 03 kts)
  • Location: 500km  (270 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
  • Comment: TOMAS is a Category 3B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 – 48 hours until it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
  • Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
  • Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
  • Comment: TOMAS is expected to transition to an extratropical system in 96 to 120 hours.


Cyclone TOMAS: Latest forecast track. Source: JTWC. [Nature’s acute geometry, or wishful thinking?]

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

  • Position: 12.9S 159.2E
  • Max Sustained Winds:  205 km/hr (~ 110 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: 270km/hr (~ 145 kts)
  • Movement:  West
  • Forward Speed:  ~ 12 km/hr ( 7 kts)
  • Location: About 695km (375 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
  • Maximum significant wave height: 10m (30 feet)
  • Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
  • Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 96 to 120 hours.


Cyclone ULUI: Latest projected path. 
Source: JTWC.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.


MTSAT – IR Image


MTSAT – Colorized IR Image


MTSAT – Visible Image

Related Links:

Posted in Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, hurricane, storm, tropical cyclone | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments »

Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14

Posted by feww on March 14, 2010

Super Cyclone ULUI a Cat 5 Storm; Tomas, at Cat 1 force,  Intensifying

With Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) still 620km away, Fijians on Vanua Levu island probably know by now what to expect because of strong winds and heavy rains that are already arriving , leaving a foretaste of  what is about to come their way.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC

  • Position:  13.3S 179.5W
  • Max Sustained Winds :  ~ 145km/hr (78 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: ~ 175km/hr ( 94 kts)
  • Movement: Southwestward
  • Forward Speed:  10km/hr (~ 06 kts)
  • Location: 620km  (335 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
  • Comment: Tomas is at a Category 1 strength on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is  expected to continue intensifying over the next 48 to 72 hours until ocean heat content decreases and vertical wind shear increases.
  • Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.

Roll down for images.

Super Cyclone ULUI, Cat 5 Hurricane Strength, Flexing Muscles on Open Water

If the super cyclone continues on its actual path (NOT forecast path), it could destroy most structures on the Island of Rennell, aka Mungava (Pop 3,000).

Super Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC

  • Position: 12.7S 161.6E
  • Max Sustained Winds:  260 km/hr (~ 140 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: 325km/hr (~ 175 kts)
  • Movement:  Northwest
  • Forward Speed:  ~13 km/hr ( 7 kts)
  • Location: About 425km (230 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
  • Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.


Super Cyclone ULUI. IR/WV Difference. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Roll down for more images.

Related Links:

IMAGE UPDATE

The following MTSAT (NOAA) images were added at 08:00UTC – Click images to enlarge.


MTSAT – IR Image


MTSAT – Colorized IR Image


MTSAT – Visible Image

On Mar 14 at 08:00UTC

  • Super Cyclone ULUI sustained wind speeds was recorded at 265km/hr
  • -Cyclone Tomas intensified to a category 2A hurricane force (see below) with sustained winds of about 160km/hr

Posted in Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, hurricane force, storm, tropical cyclone | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 19 Comments »

TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13

Posted by feww on March 13, 2010

Don’t Name Your Kids after Cyclones!

What if in your life time climate change spawned ‘never-ending’ cyclones … storms that waxed and waned as they crisscrossed the planet, but never dissipated … cyclones that  spawned other cyclones on the warm ocean waters, each time they passed near the point of their inception, a place near you …

It’s not theoretically inconceivable … you may yet drive the planet to the edge …

Where is Tomas Holidaying?

On its projected path, Tomas could cause unimaginable damage to the Main Fiji Islands. IF the cyclone were to dump its full load of precipitation on Fiji, it would submerge the two main isles under 6 feet of water.


(L to R) TC ULUI (TC 20P)
and TC TOMAS  (TC 19P). Source: MTSAT Easter Sector  (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.

Other Images and Animations


Cyclone TOMAS Current Projected Path Takes it Right through Fiji Islands. Source: JTWC


AIRS image on March 11 at 20:10 UTC  (3:10 p.m. ET) showed a developing storm with a large cluster of high,  cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around Tomas’ center. Source: NASA/JPL

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 13 at 00:01UTC

  • Position:  11.7S 178.1W
  • Max Sustained Winds:  ~ 120km/hr (65 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: ~ 150km/hr ( 80 kts)
  • Movement: 230 degrees
  • Forward Speed:  ~ 10km/hr (06 kts)
  • Location: 890km  (440 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
  • Comment: High ocean heat content and strong outflow will help Tomas to intensify steadily. Tomas could reach Category 4A, possibly as high as Cat 4c,  strength on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
    Tomas has “tightly-wrapped convective banding around a well-defined low-level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates TC 19P is just to the south of an anticyclone that is enhancing excellent equatorward outflow,” JTWC said.
  • Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.

Cyclone ULUI: The Loitering Devil on the Deep Blue Sea


TC ULUI. Source MTSAT (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.

Forecast Details on March 13 at 06:00UTC

  • Position: 13.9S 163.3E
  • Max Sustaind Winds: ~ 110 km/hr (~ 60 kts)
  • Wind Gusts: 140km/hr (~ 75 kts)
  • Movement: 290 degrees
  • Forward Speed:  ~5km/hr (~ 3 kts)
  • Location: About 195km (105 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
  • Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.

Infrared Image of Ului’s Cold T-storms


An AIRS image on March 12 at 9:17 a.m. ET showed a well-developed storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Storm Ului. Source: NASA

Related Links:

Posted in Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, storm, tropical cyclone | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 19 Comments »