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Archive for the ‘deluge in Dagupan’ Category

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Posted by feww on October 19, 2009

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

  • Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
  • Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
  • Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
  • Central pressure: 930hPa
  • Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
  • Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
  • Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
  • Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
  • Source(s): JMA; JTWC
  • Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

lupit - jma oct 19 - 0000utc
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

wp22 - JTWC
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track
. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.
Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Posted by feww on October 16, 2009

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

ts lupit -
Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

LUPIT Pagasa
How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPIT forecast cyclone position
Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

lupit analysis

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

Other Satellite Images:


Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, sanitation, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »