Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues to Rise

Philippine Mega Disaster:  Death toll climbs to 5,680 with 1,779 others missing

Death toll from Super Typhoon HAIYAN climbed to 5,680, after 48 bodies were recovered on Monday, said the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

The number of people missing also rose to 1,779, with 26,233 others reportedly injured due to HAIYAN [ locally known as YOLANDA.]

Total number of people affected by the Super Typhoon has officially climbed to more than 11.2 million [U.N. estimate is about 13.5 million,] with the number of displaced also revised up to more than 4 million.

The number of houses destroyed or damaged has increased to 1,180,837 units including 587,035 units completely flattened, according to NDRRMC SitRep No. 51, released today.

The total cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture [the estimate excludes cost of rebuilding homes] is pegged at over PhP34.36 billion [$1=43.77 Philippines peso] with PhP17.3 billion for losses in infrastructure and PhP17 billion for agriculture in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, and CARAGA, said the report.

State of National Calamity

The Philippine President issued Presidential Proclamation No. 682 declaring a state of national calamity on 11 November 11, 2013.

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

• FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimated the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

• Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

Related Links

• Death Toll Rises in Super Typhoon HAIYAN November 30, 2013

• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: WE TOLD YOU SO! November 20, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced November 17, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – November 18, 2013 November 18, 2013
• 4.24 Million Displaced in Super Typhoon HAIYAN November 23, 2013

November another Month of Bloody Massacres in Iraq

On average 30 – 40 people killed in Iraq each day in November

At least 1,121 people were killed in bloody violence across Iraq in November, according to the Interior Ministry.

The Iraqi ministry of health, however, put the number of people massacred last month at 948, including 852 civilians, 53 policemen and 43 military personnel.

At least 1,349 others were wounded in the deadly attacks which included mass murder by car bombs, IEDs, AEDs, mortar and gunfire, as well as executions by hanging, slitting throats, beheading and sniper fire.

More than 8,200 have been massacred and about 18,000 others wounded in Iraq so far this year, making 2013 the bloodiest year since 2008. 

2013 Casualty Stats for Acts of terrorism and Violence in Iraq released by UNAMI

• In November, according to UNAMI, 565 civilians (including 120 civilian police) were killed and 1,186 persons (including 239 civilian police) were wounded. Additionally, 94 members of the Iraqi Security Forces were killed and 187 were wounded.  [See above for Nov. stats provided by other sources.]

• In October 2013, at least 1,095 people were killed and more than 1,900 others wounded.
  • October death toll for Iraq was 979, exactly the same as September toll (!), according to UNAMI.
• In September 2013, at least 1,220 civilians were killed and about 2,000 others wounded
  • Baghdad, 1 October 2013 – According to casualty figures released today by UNAMI, a total of 979 Iraqis were killed and another 2,133 wounded in acts of terrorism and violence in September.

• In August 2013, a minimum of 716 civilians were killed (including 106 civilian police) a further 1,936 wounded (including 195 civilian police).
• In July 2013, at least 928 were killed (including 204 civilian police) a further 2,109 were wounded (including 338 civilian police).
• In June 2013, a minimum of 685 civilians were killed and 1,610 others wounded.
• In May 2013, at least 963 civilians were killed and 2,191 others wounded.
• In April 2013, a minimum of 595 civilians were killed and 1,481  wounded.
• In March 2013, at least 229 civilians were killed and 853 were wounded.
• In February 2013 some 418 civilians  were killed and 704 others wounded.
• In January 2013, at least 319 civilians were killed and 960 others  wounded.
• In December 2012, 230 civilians were killed and 655 were wounded.
• In November 2012, 445 civilians were killed and 1,306 others  wounded.

Iraq Death and Injury Toll (Civilians Only) published by the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).

Related Links

• Iraq Violence Death Toll Nears 7,200 in 10 Months  November 2, 2013
• 7,037 Killed in Iraq Violence October 27, 2013
• Bloody Sunday Bombings Kill 78 in Iraq October 21, 2013
• Deadly Violence Intensifies in Iraq October 6, 2013
• Every Day a Major Disaster Day in Iraq  October 1, 2013
• Iraq Carnage Negates All Human Values August 29, 2013
• Destabilization of Middle East Intensifies 26, 2013
• 1,057 Iraqis Killed in July August 1, 2013
• The Financial Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan April 1, 2013
• US, UK Munitions ‘Cause Birth Defects’ in Iraq October 14, 2012
• Iraq Ecocide Nears Totality August 1, 2009

Death Toll Rises in Super Typhoon HAIYAN

Philippine Mega Disaster:  Death toll rises to 5,632 with 1,759 others missing and  26,136 injured

Death toll from Super Typhoon HAIYAN climbed to 5,632, after 34 bodies were recovered in central Tacloban city since Thursday, said the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

The number of people missing also rose to 1,759, with 26,136 others reported injured due to HAIYAN [ locally known as YOLANDA.]

Total number of people affected by the Super Typhoon is put at just under 11 million [U.N. estimate is about 13.5 million,] with the number of displaced revised down to about 3.9 million.

The number of houses destroyed or damaged has increased to 1,168,909 units including 582,827 units completely flattened, according to NDRRMC SitRep No. 48, released today.

The total cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture [the estimate excludes cost of rebuilding homes] is pegged at over PhP30.6 billion [$1=43.77 Philippines peso] with about PhP15.6 for infrastructure and PhP15 billion for agriculture in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, and CARAGA, said the report.

State of National Calamity

The Philippine President issued Presidential Proclamation No. 682 declaring a state of national calamity on 11 November 11, 2013.

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

• FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

• Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

Related Links

• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: WE TOLD YOU SO! November 20, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced November 17, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – November 18, 2013 November 18, 2013
• 4.24 Million Displaced in Super Typhoon HAIYAN November 23, 2013

Illinois Declared Federal Disaster Area

Major Disaster Declared for Illinois

The White House has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Illinois in the area affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes on November 17, 2013.

The 15 counties worst affected by the severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes are Champaign, Douglas, Fayette, Grundy, Jasper, La Salle, Massac, Pope, Tazewell, Vermilion, Wabash, Washington, Wayne, Will, and Woodford.

The White House declaration  makes federal funding available to affected individuals in the disaster areas, said U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments, said FEMA in a statement.

Disaster Declared in 13 Illinois Counties

Last week, Gov. Quinn declared a total of  13 counties in Illinois as disaster areas after tornadoes tore through the state, killing at least 6 people and leaving hundreds of others injured. A total of 85 twisters (confirmed by SPC), including two EF4 tornadoes,  which pack 166 mph to 200 mph winds, touched down in the US heartland destroying or damaging hundreds of homes.

Recent Disaster Declarations

• Nebraska Declared Federal Disaster Area November 27, 2013
• Major Disaster Declared for South Dakota November 9, 2013
• Major Disaster Declared in North Dakota November 1, 2013

• North Carolina Declared Federal Disaster Area October 31, 2013
• Major Disaster Declared in New Mexico October 30, 2013
• Kansas Declared Federal Disaster Area October 30, 2013
• Blizzard Kills 80,000 Cattle in S. Dakota October 14, 2013
• New Mexico Declared Federal Disaster Area October 2, 2013

• Agricultural Disaster Declared for 194 Counties in 13 States September 20, 2013
• N. Colorado Declared as Federal Disaster Area September 14, 2013
• Agricultural Disaster Declared for 138 counties in 14 States
• Drought 2013
• Agricultural Disasters Index

Nebraska Declared Federal Disaster Area

Major Disaster Declared for Nebraska

The White House has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Nebraska in the area affected by severe storms, winter storms, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of October 2-6, 2013.

Areas worst affected by the severe storms, winter storms, tornadoes, and flooding are the counties of Adams, Dawes, Dixon, Howard, Sheridan, Sherman, Sioux, Thurston, and Wayne.

Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments, said FEMA in a statement.

Recent Federal Disaster Declarations

• North Carolina Declared Federal Disaster Area October 31, 2013
• Major Disaster Declared in New Mexico October 30, 2013
• Kansas Declared Federal Disaster Area October 30, 2013

• N. Colorado Declared as Federal Disaster Area September 14, 2013
• Major Disaster Declared for South Dakota November 9, 2013
• New Mexico Declared Federal Disaster Area October 2, 2013

• Agricultural Disaster Declared for 194 Counties in 13 States September 20, 2013
• Agricultural Disaster Declared for 138 counties in 14 States
• Drought 2013
• Agricultural Disasters Index

4.24 Million Displaced in Super Typhoon HAIYAN

Super Typhoon HAIYAN left 6,848 dead or missing, destroyed or damaged 1,112,731 houses

The official death and damage toll in the aftermath of Super Typhoon HAIYAN continues rising.

Source: SitRep No. 36 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 23, 2013. [$1 = 43.8 Philippine pesos – FIRE-EARTH Blog]

[Note: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been amended to PhP22.34billion] which is more realistic than their previous estimates.]

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

• FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

• Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

Related Links

• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: WE TOLD YOU SO! November 20, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced November 17, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – November 18, 2013 November 18, 2013

Seven IL Counties Declared Disaster Areas after Deadly Storms

“We are still receiving reports of massive damage to communities across our state” —IL Gov. Quinn

Sunday’s deadly storms killed at least six people and injured scores of others, while damaging and destroying hundreds of homes and businesses and cutting power to tens of thousands of residents.

The counties declared disaster areas are Champaign, Grundy, LaSalle, Massac, Tazewell, Washington and Woodford, according to the Disaster Proclamation issued by Gov. Pat Quinn’s office on Monday.

“Although we are still receiving reports of massive damage to communities across our state, we want to make sure people are getting the assistance and resources they need as quickly as possible,” said the governor. “As we pray for the families of those who have lost their lives and others who are injured, the state of Illinois will do everything necessary to help these communities recover.”

A large swarm of storms brought destructive winds and tornadoes to Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York.

Illinois took the brunt of the ferocious weather system, which spawned a total of 76 confirmed tornadoes, and 451 storm reports.

Washington (Population: 16,000), a small city in Tazewell County, about 140 miles southwest of Chicago, was the hardest hit area, with up to 500 homes damaged or destroyed, according to reports. of 16,000.

EF4 Tornadoes

Two of the deadly twisters were rated EF-4 tornadoes, reported the National Weather Service (NWS).

EF4 tornadoes pack destructive winds of between 166 and 260 mph (267 – 322kph), and can leave well-constructed houses leveled, blowing away structures with weak foundations blown away some distance;  throwing cars and generating large missiles.

F4 F touch down in IL November 17, 2013.

Tacloban City, Philippines or the State of  Illinois?

IL deadly tornadoes aftermath – Image credit: Natalie Martinez

Powerful tornadoes tore through large swathes of Illinois on Sunday. Image credit: @WCL_Shawn

Latest Weather Forecast

Strong winds in the Northeast and across the Great Lakes will subside today as the powerful storm system responsible for yesterday’s severe weather continues to move farther away into Canada. Meanwhile, another storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest bringing rain and mountain snow. NWS

“You don’t need temperatures in the 80s and 90s to produce severe weather [since] the strong winds compensate for for the lack of heating,”  said a forecaster at NWS. “That sets the stage for what we call wind shear, which may produce tornadoes.”

Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF scale)

Fujita-Pearson Tornado Scale

F-0  [39%]
40-72 mph, chimney damage, tree branches broken

F-1 [35%]
73-112 mph, mobile homes pushed off foundation or overturned

F-2 [20%]
113-157 mph, considerable damage, mobile homes demolished, trees uprooted

F-3  [5%]
158-205 mph, roofs and walls torn down, trains overturned, cars thrown

F-4 [0.9%]
207-260 mph, well-constructed walls leveled

F-5 [<0.1%]
261-318 mph, homes lifted off foundation and carried considerable distances, autos thrown as far as 100 meters

Source: US gov. [Figures in brackets represent long-term relative frequencies— revised by FIRE-EARTH]

Related Links

• Deadly Tornadoes Attack U.S. Midwest November 18, 2013

“Apocalyptic” Storms, Flash Floods Strike Sardinia, Italy

Two dozen dead or missing, hundreds evacuated as extreme weather batters Sardinia

At least a dozen people were killed, more than a dozen others reported missing and hundreds evacuated after storms tore through the Italian island of Sardinia late Monday.

Powerful storms and torrential rains submerged roads sweeping cars and destroying several bridges, as rivers burst their banks inundating hundred of home and businesses reported local media.

The township of Olbia (Population: 57,000), located northeast of the island, was the hardest hit area.

Heavy rains were buffeting both northern and southern Italy with high winds and flooding reported in coastal areas, officials said.

Massive floods triggered by extreme rain events hit the island of Sardinia, Italy (Image Credit: AP/Diego Manunta).  The city was destroyed by the “apocalyptic” storm, with several dead and several missing. Olbia mayor Gianni Giovanelli told reporters.

80,000 Left Homeless by Flooding and Landslides in Vietnam

40 Dead or missing, 80,000 displaced due to flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Tropical Depression PODUL dumped up to 800mm of rain in some parts of central Vietnam, leaving hundreds of villages isolated.

Extreme rain events have triggered sever flooding and landslides in five central provinces, leaving at least 28 people dead, nine missing and more than 80,000 homeless since Thursday. At least 100,000 houses have been inundated, according to reports.

Many roads have been damaged, including many parts of the National Highway19, which have been washed away.  At least a dozen bridges have collapsed.  Widespread power outages have been reported in Binh Dinh Province, with the Tay Son District experiencing a total blackout.

Flooding in the region was exacerbated after 15 hydro power plants opened their sluice gates for safety, releasing tens of thousands of cubic meters of water.

Tropical Storm KETSANA forced a hydro power dam in Quang Nam to release 50 million cubic meters of water in September 2009, which intensified flooding that killed at least 163 people and caused more than US$786 million worth of property damage, said a report.

Tropical Storm HAIYAN killed at least 13 people and left 81 others injured when  it made landfall in north Vietnam after killing thousands of people in the Philippine, leaving more than 4 percent of the population homeless and vast areas utterly devastated.

Related Links

• PODUL Forces 25,000 to Flee Their Homes in Vietnam Posted on November 16, 2013
• Tropical Depression ZORAIDA Striking Mindanao, Philippines November 11, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues Rising

About 12% of the entire Philippines population directly affected by Super Typhoon HAIYAN: UNDAC

Official figures: At least 2,357 people are dead; 3,853 injured; 77 missing and 818,596 displaced

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

The following table [SitRep No. 19] shows latest official casualty and damage estimates released by  Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC).

Source: Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC). [$1 = 43.6 Philippine pesos]

[Notes: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been substantially reduced to PhP4,060,044,079.13,] which is more realistic than the original figures. Philippines population is about 99million.]

Table below [SitRep No. 18] shows earlier casualty and damage estimates as released by  Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC).

Source: Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC).

This post will be updated throughout the day as more information becomes available.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

• Philippine President Lowers the Typhoon Death Toll, for Now November 13, 2013
• Stench of Death Permeates the Philippines Disaster Zone November 12, 2013
• Tropical Depression ZORAIDA Striking Mindanao, Philippines November 11, 2013
• Philippine Disaster Update – November 11 November 11, 2013
• Typhoon HAIYAN Strikes Northern Vietnam Near China Border November 11, 2013
• Philippine Disaster Zone: “It’s Like the End of the World.” November 10, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN – NOV 10 Update November 10, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Casualties Could Top Many Thousands November 9, 2013
• Extraterrestrial Typhoon Force Generating 20-Meter “Tsunami” November 8, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN’S Arm Battering the Philippines November 7, 2013
• “Extraterrestrial” Typhoon HAIYAN – Image Update November 6, 2013
• HAIYAN Intensifying to “Extraterrestrial” Levels November 6, 2013
• Potential Super Typhoon Headed for the Philippines November 4, 2013
• Typhoon KROSA Destroys or Damages 19,000 Homes in Philippines  November 2, 2013

Other Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Hundreds Dead or Missing after Storm Hits Somalia

State of Emergency declared in Puntland, Somalia amid storm disaster

Hundreds are dead or missing after a tropical cyclone, known as 03A, hit Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region on Saturday, according to the government.

“A tropical cyclone storm (has) wreaked death and destruction… the storm brought high wind speeds and torrential rains, causing flash floods,” said the government of the of Puntland.

“Information collected from coastal areas via irregular telephone contact over the past 48 hours indicates that up to 100 people might have been killed, while hundreds of other people remain unaccounted for.”

Puntland President Farole said the scale of “crisis was immense,” as his government declared the calamity a “disaster,” proclaiming a state of emergency.

“Houses and livestock were swept into the ocean by the floods,” said the President at a news conference in the capital Garowe.

“We urge United Nations aid agencies to assist the victims. As Puntland, we have established a committee to investigate the loss and damage. Electricity, communication and fishing boats were all destroyed.”

The storm hit the eastern coast of the country, destroying entire villages and  sweeping at least 100,000 livestock and scores of people into the ocean.

“Preliminary information also indicates that homes, buildings, boats and entire villages have been destroyed and over 100,000 livestock lost, endangering the livelihoods of tens of thousands of local people,” the government said.

High Winds and Heavy Rains

High winds and heavy rains hit a vast area causing flash floods and cutting off roads, as the immediate impact of the storm was forecast to continue until Wednesday.

“I have buried 10 members of my family, the icy storm and rain killed more than hundred people here,” Reuters quoted a villager as saying.

“I have never witnessed such fatal cold. Some people were blown away and others died after their houses collapsed on them. Some people, and the animals they were looking after, are still missing,” he said.