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Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues to Rise

Posted by feww on December 3, 2013

Philippine Mega Disaster:  Death toll climbs to 5,680 with 1,779 others missing

Death toll from Super Typhoon HAIYAN climbed to 5,680, after 48 bodies were recovered on Monday, said the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

The number of people missing also rose to 1,779, with 26,233 others reportedly injured due to HAIYAN [ locally known as YOLANDA.]

Total number of people affected by the Super Typhoon has officially climbed to more than 11.2 million [U.N. estimate is about 13.5 million,] with the number of displaced also revised up to more than 4 million.

The number of houses destroyed or damaged has increased to 1,180,837 units including 587,035 units completely flattened, according to NDRRMC SitRep No. 51, released today.

The total cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture [the estimate excludes cost of rebuilding homes] is pegged at over PhP34.36 billion [$1=43.77 Philippines peso] with PhP17.3 billion for losses in infrastructure and PhP17 billion for agriculture in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, and CARAGA, said the report.

State of National Calamity

The Philippine President issued Presidential Proclamation No. 682 declaring a state of national calamity on 11 November 11, 2013.

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

  • FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimated the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

google logo of the day 2

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

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November another Month of Bloody Massacres in Iraq

Posted by feww on December 2, 2013

On average 30 – 40 people killed in Iraq each day in November

At least 1,121 people were killed in bloody violence across Iraq in November, according to the Interior Ministry.

The Iraqi ministry of health, however, put the number of people massacred last month at 948, including 852 civilians, 53 policemen and 43 military personnel.

At least 1,349 others were wounded in the deadly attacks which included mass murder by car bombs, IEDs, AEDs, mortar and gunfire, as well as executions by hanging, slitting throats, beheading and sniper fire.

More than 8,200 have been massacred and about 18,000 others wounded in Iraq so far this year, making 2013 the bloodiest year since 2008. 

2013 Casualty Stats for Acts of terrorism and Violence in Iraq released by UNAMI

  • In November, according to UNAMI, 565 civilians (including 120 civilian police) were killed and 1,186 persons (including 239 civilian police) were wounded. Additionally, 94 members of the Iraqi Security Forces were killed and 187 were wounded.  [See above for Nov. stats provided by other sources.]
  • In October 2013, at least 1,095 people were killed and more than 1,900 others wounded.
    • October death toll for Iraq was 979, exactly the same as September toll (!), according to UNAMI.
  • In September 2013, at least 1,220 civilians were killed and about 2,000 others wounded
    • Baghdad, 1 October 2013 – According to casualty figures released today by UNAMI, a total of 979 Iraqis were killed and another 2,133 wounded in acts of terrorism and violence in September.
  • In August 2013, a minimum of 716 civilians were killed (including 106 civilian police) a further 1,936 wounded (including 195 civilian police).
  • In July 2013, at least 928 were killed (including 204 civilian police) a further 2,109 were wounded (including 338 civilian police).
  • In June 2013, a minimum of 685 civilians were killed and 1,610 others wounded.
  • In May 2013, at least 963 civilians were killed and 2,191 others wounded.
  • In April 2013, a minimum of 595 civilians were killed and 1,481  wounded.
  • In March 2013, at least 229 civilians were killed and 853 were wounded.
  • In February 2013 some 418 civilians  were killed and 704 others wounded.
  • In January 2013, at least 319 civilians were killed and 960 others  wounded.
  • In December 2012, 230 civilians were killed and 655 were wounded.
  • In November 2012, 445 civilians were killed and 1,306 others  wounded.

unami civilian death toll

Iraq Death and Injury Toll (Civilians Only) published by the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).

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Death Toll Rises in Super Typhoon HAIYAN

Posted by feww on November 30, 2013

Philippine Mega Disaster:  Death toll rises to 5,632 with 1,759 others missing and  26,136 injured

Death toll from Super Typhoon HAIYAN climbed to 5,632, after 34 bodies were recovered in central Tacloban city since Thursday, said the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

The number of people missing also rose to 1,759, with 26,136 others reported injured due to HAIYAN [ locally known as YOLANDA.]

Total number of people affected by the Super Typhoon is put at just under 11 million [U.N. estimate is about 13.5 million,] with the number of displaced revised down to about 3.9 million.

The number of houses destroyed or damaged has increased to 1,168,909 units including 582,827 units completely flattened, according to NDRRMC SitRep No. 48, released today.

The total cost of damage to infrastructure and agriculture [the estimate excludes cost of rebuilding homes] is pegged at over PhP30.6 billion [$1=43.77 Philippines peso] with about PhP15.6 for infrastructure and PhP15 billion for agriculture in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, and CARAGA, said the report.

State of National Calamity

The Philippine President issued Presidential Proclamation No. 682 declaring a state of national calamity on 11 November 11, 2013.

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

  • FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

google logo of the day 2

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

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LEHAR Closing in on Indian Coast

Posted by feww on November 27, 2013

LEHAR Intensifies to a Strong Cat. 1  Storm Force

Cyclone LEHAR was packing sustained winds of about 140km/h, gusting to 170km/h, as of 06:00UTC, November 27, 2013.

LEHAR was located about 910km ESE (114 degrees) of Hyderabad, India tracking WNW (295 degrees) at about 20km/h, as of as of 06:00UTC, November 27, 2013. [Estimate is based on FIRE-EARTH Models, with data supplied from various satellites.]

lehar 27nov2013 0500utc
LEHAR – Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 05:30UTC on November 27, 2013.
Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

google logo of the day 2

The maximum significant wave height generated by the storm is currently about 9 meters.

The storm could intensify marginally before making landfall. The storm surge, rainfall and winds associated with LEHAR could cause significant damage, especially in low lying areas.

LEHAR has been designated as a “very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)” by India’s Meteorological Department (IMD), and is forecast to make landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam about 12:00pm on Thursday, November 28, 2013.

LEHAR projected track
LEHAR’s Projected Path according to IDM.

Cyclones PHAILIN and HELEN

In October, Cyclone PHAILIN destroyed or damaged more than 500,000 mud houses, killing dozens of people and ruining 1.3 million hectares of crops.

Cyclone HELEN struck the Andhra Pradesh coast last Friday, forcing thousands of  evacuations, killing six people and  causing significant  damage to crops.

LEHAR would be considerably stronger than HELEN on landfall.

This post will be updated throughout the day …

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Illinois Declared Federal Disaster Area

Posted by feww on November 27, 2013

Major Disaster Declared for Illinois

The White House has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Illinois in the area affected by severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes on November 17, 2013.

The 15 counties worst affected by the severe storms, straight-line winds, and tornadoes are Champaign, Douglas, Fayette, Grundy, Jasper, La Salle, Massac, Pope, Tazewell, Vermilion, Wabash, Washington, Wayne, Will, and Woodford.

The White House declaration  makes federal funding available to affected individuals in the disaster areas, said U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments, said FEMA in a statement.

Disaster Declared in 13 Illinois Counties

Last week, Gov. Quinn declared a total of  13 counties in Illinois as disaster areas after tornadoes tore through the state, killing at least 6 people and leaving hundreds of others injured. A total of 85 twisters (confirmed by SPC), including two EF4 tornadoes,  which pack 166 mph to 200 mph winds, touched down in the US heartland destroying or damaging hundreds of homes.

Recent Disaster Declarations

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Nebraska Declared Federal Disaster Area

Posted by feww on November 27, 2013

Major Disaster Declared for Nebraska

The White House has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Nebraska in the area affected by severe storms, winter storms, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of October 2-6, 2013.

Areas worst affected by the severe storms, winter storms, tornadoes, and flooding are the counties of Adams, Dawes, Dixon, Howard, Sheridan, Sherman, Sioux, Thurston, and Wayne.

Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments, said FEMA in a statement.

Recent Federal Disaster Declarations

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4.24 Million Displaced in Super Typhoon HAIYAN

Posted by feww on November 23, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN left 6,848 dead or missing, destroyed or damaged 1,112,731 houses

The official death and damage toll in the aftermath of Super Typhoon HAIYAN continues rising.

ndrrmc sitrep 36 - 23Nov2013
Source: SitRep No. 36 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 23, 2013. [$1 = 43.8 Philippine pesos – FIRE-EARTH Blog]

[Note: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been amended to PhP22.34billion] which is more realistic than their previous estimates.]

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

  • FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

FIRE-EARTH and MSRB  2004 Forecast

In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Related Links

Posted in Climate Change, disaster areas, disaster calendar 2013, disaster watch, disaster watch 2013, disaster zone, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Seven IL Counties Declared Disaster Areas after Deadly Storms

Posted by feww on November 19, 2013

“We are still receiving reports of massive damage to communities across our state” —IL Gov. Quinn

Sunday’s deadly storms killed at least six people and injured scores of others, while damaging and destroying hundreds of homes and businesses and cutting power to tens of thousands of residents.

The counties declared disaster areas are Champaign, Grundy, LaSalle, Massac, Tazewell, Washington and Woodford, according to the Disaster Proclamation issued by Gov. Pat Quinn’s office on Monday.

“Although we are still receiving reports of massive damage to communities across our state, we want to make sure people are getting the assistance and resources they need as quickly as possible,” said the governor. “As we pray for the families of those who have lost their lives and others who are injured, the state of Illinois will do everything necessary to help these communities recover.”

A large swarm of storms brought destructive winds and tornadoes to Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York.

Illinois took the brunt of the ferocious weather system, which spawned a total of 76 confirmed tornadoes, and 451 storm reports.

Washington (Population: 16,000), a small city in Tazewell County, about 140 miles southwest of Chicago, was the hardest hit area, with up to 500 homes damaged or destroyed, according to reports. of 16,000.

EF4 Tornadoes

Two of the deadly twisters were rated EF-4 tornadoes, reported the National Weather Service (NWS).

EF4 tornadoes pack destructive winds of between 166 and 260 mph (267 – 322kph), and can leave well-constructed houses leveled, blowing away structures with weak foundations blown away some distance;  throwing cars and generating large missiles.

F4 tornado touch down in IL 17Nov13
F4 F touch down in IL November 17, 2013.

Tacloban City, Philippines or the State of  Illinois?

IL deadly tornadoes aftermath - natalie martinez
IL deadly tornadoes aftermath – Image credit: Natalie Martinez

IL deadly storm 17nov13
Powerful tornadoes tore through large swathes of Illinois on Sunday. Image credit: @WCL_Shawn

Latest Weather Forecast

Strong winds in the Northeast and across the Great Lakes will subside today as the powerful storm system responsible for yesterday’s severe weather continues to move farther away into Canada. Meanwhile, another storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest bringing rain and mountain snow. NWS

“You don’t need temperatures in the 80s and 90s to produce severe weather [since] the strong winds compensate for for the lack of heating,”  said a forecaster at NWS. “That sets the stage for what we call wind shear, which may produce tornadoes.”

Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF scale)

EF Scale

Fujita-Pearson Tornado Scale


F-0  [39%]
40-72 mph, chimney damage, tree branches broken

F-1 [35%]
73-112 mph, mobile homes pushed off foundation or overturned

F-2 [20%]
113-157 mph, considerable damage, mobile homes demolished, trees uprooted

F-3  [5%]
158-205 mph, roofs and walls torn down, trains overturned, cars thrown

F-4 [0.9%]
207-260 mph, well-constructed walls leveled

F-5 [<0.1%]
261-318 mph, homes lifted off foundation and carried considerable distances, autos thrown as far as 100 meters

Source: US gov. [Figures in brackets represent long-term relative frequencies— revised by FIRE-EARTH]

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“Apocalyptic” Storms, Flash Floods Strike Sardinia, Italy

Posted by feww on November 19, 2013

Two dozen dead or missing, hundreds evacuated as extreme weather batters Sardinia

At least a dozen people were killed, more than a dozen others reported missing and hundreds evacuated after storms tore through the Italian island of Sardinia late Monday.

Powerful storms and torrential rains submerged roads sweeping cars and destroying several bridges, as rivers burst their banks inundating hundred of home and businesses reported local media.

The township of Olbia (Population: 57,000), located northeast of the island, was the hardest hit area.

Heavy rains were buffeting both northern and southern Italy with high winds and flooding reported in coastal areas, officials said.

sardnia - ap
Massive floods triggered by extreme rain events hit the island of Sardinia, Italy (Image Credit: AP/Diego Manunta).  The city was destroyed by the “apocalyptic” storm, with several dead and several missing. Olbia mayor Gianni Giovanelli told reporters.

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80,000 Left Homeless by Flooding and Landslides in Vietnam

Posted by feww on November 17, 2013

40 Dead or missing, 80,000 displaced due to flooding and landslides in Vietnam

Tropical Depression PODUL dumped up to 800mm of rain in some parts of central Vietnam, leaving hundreds of villages isolated.

Extreme rain events have triggered sever flooding and landslides in five central provinces, leaving at least 28 people dead, nine missing and more than 80,000 homeless since Thursday. At least 100,000 houses have been inundated, according to reports.

Many roads have been damaged, including many parts of the National Highway19, which have been washed away.  At least a dozen bridges have collapsed.  Widespread power outages have been reported in Binh Dinh Province, with the Tay Son District experiencing a total blackout.

Flooding in the region was exacerbated after 15 hydro power plants opened their sluice gates for safety, releasing tens of thousands of cubic meters of water.

Tropical Storm KETSANA forced a hydro power dam in Quang Nam to release 50 million cubic meters of water in September 2009, which intensified flooding that killed at least 163 people and caused more than US$786 million worth of property damage, said a report.

Tropical Storm HAIYAN killed at least 13 people and left 81 others injured when  it made landfall in north Vietnam after killing thousands of people in the Philippine, leaving more than 4 percent of the population homeless and vast areas utterly devastated.

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Philippine Mega Disaster: 2 Million Displaced

Posted by feww on November 16, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN affects 13 pct. of Philippine population, leaves 2 pct. homeless

The number of people affected has increased to nearly 13 million, with about 2 million people displaced. The latest figures, provided by the U.N., represent a significant increase from the previous bulletin.

  • According to the latest figures, more than 2 percent of the Philippines population of about 99 million are now homeless as a result of Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

Many people may have been swept out to sea and their bodies lost after a tsunami-like wall of seawater slammed into coastal areas. One neighborhood with a population of between 10,000 and 12,000 was now deserted, said Tacloban mayor Alfred Romualdez.

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

Philippine Government’s [Highly Politicized] Official Disaster Stats:

ndrrmc 20 - nov16
Source: SitRep No. 22 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 16, 2013. [$1 = 43.66 Philippine pesos]

[Notes: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been amended to PhP9,460,240,222.13] which is more realistic than the initial estimates. Philippines population is about 99 million.]

This post will be updated throughout the day as more information becomes available.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

Other Related Links

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Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues Rising

Posted by feww on November 14, 2013

About 12% of the entire Philippines population directly affected by Super Typhoon HAIYAN: UNDAC

Official figures: At least 2,357 people are dead; 3,853 injured; 77 missing and 818,596 displaced

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

The following table [SitRep No. 19] shows latest official casualty and damage estimates released by  Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC).

NDRRMC SITREP 19
Source: Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC). [$1 = 43.6 Philippine pesos]

[Notes: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been substantially reduced to PhP4,060,044,079.13,] which is more realistic than the original figures. Philippines population is about 99million.]

Table below [SitRep No. 18] shows earlier casualty and damage estimates as released by  Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC).

NDRRMC SITREP 18
Source: Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC).

This post will be updated throughout the day as more information becomes available.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Other Related Links

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Crop Disaster Declared in Five States

Posted by feww on November 14, 2013

High Winds, Hail, Excessive Rain and Flooding prompt USDA to declare crop disaster for44 counties in five states

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated 44 counties across five states as agricultural disaster areas due to losses caused by a combination of excessive rain, related flooding, high winds and hail in three separate declarations.

Designation # 1: Ten Counties in New Jersey have been declared  Crop Disaster Areas due to losses caused by excessive rain, related flooding, high winds and hail that occurred May 1 – September 24, 2013.

Those counties are Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean and  Salem.

Designation # 2: USDA has designated 20 counties in Michigan as Agricultural Disaster Areas due losses caused by hail that occurred June 10 – August 2, 2013

Those areas are Bay, Calhoun, Eaton, Genesee, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Huron, Ingham, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Midland, Monroe, Oakland, Saginaw,  Sanilac, Shiawassee, Tuscola, Washtenaw, and  Wayne counties.

Designation # 3: USDA has designated fourteen counties in three states–Florida, Georgia and Alabama– as crop disaster areas due to losses caused by excessive rain that occurred May 1 – September 25, 2013.

  • Florida: Escambia, Madison, Santa Rosa, Taylor, Dixie, Jefferson, Okaloosa, Hamilton, Lafayette and Suwannee counties.
  • Georgia: Brooks and Lowndes counties.
  • Alabama: Baldwin and Escambia counties.

All counties listed above were designated natural disaster areas Nov. 13, 2013.

“Secretary Vilsack also reminds producers that Congress has not funded the five disaster assistance programs authorized by the 2008 Farm Bill. These are SURE; the Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP); the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm-Raised Fish (ELAP); the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP); and the Tree Assistance Program (TAP). Production losses due to disasters occurring after Sept. 30, 2011, are not eligible for disaster program coverage,” said USDA.

Recent Crop Disaster Designations

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Hundreds Dead or Missing after Storm Hits Somalia

Posted by feww on November 12, 2013

State of Emergency declared in Puntland, Somalia amid storm disaster

Hundreds are dead or missing after a tropical cyclone, known as 03A, hit Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region on Saturday, according to the government.

“A tropical cyclone storm (has) wreaked death and destruction… the storm brought high wind speeds and torrential rains, causing flash floods,” said the government of the of Puntland.

“Information collected from coastal areas via irregular telephone contact over the past 48 hours indicates that up to 100 people might have been killed, while hundreds of other people remain unaccounted for.”

Puntland President Farole said the scale of “crisis was immense,” as his government declared the calamity a “disaster,” proclaiming a state of emergency.

“Houses and livestock were swept into the ocean by the floods,” said the President at a news conference in the capital Garowe.

“We urge United Nations aid agencies to assist the victims. As Puntland, we have established a committee to investigate the loss and damage. Electricity, communication and fishing boats were all destroyed.”

The storm hit the eastern coast of the country, destroying entire villages and  sweeping at least 100,000 livestock and scores of people into the ocean.

“Preliminary information also indicates that homes, buildings, boats and entire villages have been destroyed and over 100,000 livestock lost, endangering the livelihoods of tens of thousands of local people,” the government said.

High Winds and Heavy Rains

High winds and heavy rains hit a vast area causing flash floods and cutting off roads, as the immediate impact of the storm was forecast to continue until Wednesday.

“I have buried 10 members of my family, the icy storm and rain killed more than hundred people here,” Reuters quoted a villager as saying.

“I have never witnessed such fatal cold. Some people were blown away and others died after their houses collapsed on them. Some people, and the animals they were looking after, are still missing,” he said.

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Super Typhoon HAIYAN – NOV 10 Update

Posted by feww on November 10, 2013

Casualty Figures Moving Closer to FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

Super Typhoon HAIYAN has killed at least 10,000 people in the Tacloban alone,  according to the provincial governor.

Tacloban, officially the City of Tacloban (pop: 230,000), located central Philippines province of Leyte, bore the brunt of HAIYAN. The casualty figure has not yet been confirmed by the central government’s disaster agency.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models calculated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties, the blog said on Saturday.

Summary of Latest Events

Typhoon HAIYAN was downgraded to a Cat. 4A storm force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale racing toward Indochina Peninsula, over the warm (29ºC) waters of South China Sea, at a forward speed of about 35 km/hr, as of 04:30UTC on Saturday November 9, 2013.

UPDATES – Sunday November 10, 2013

  • According to the latest official figures, about 500,000 people have been displaced and more than 4.5 million people affected as a result of the typhoon attack.
  • At least 300 people were killed in Samar province, with 2,000 others reported as missing. Scores of others are injured. “However vast areas of Samar, an island of over 733,000, still have not been contacted over two days after the typhoon struck.” AFP said.
  • Authorities in Vietnam have evacuated about 900,000 people in 11 provinces.
  • “Tacloban is totally destroyed. Some people are losing their minds from hunger or from losing their families,” a high school teacher told reporters. “People are becoming violent. They are looting business establishments, the malls, just to find food, rice and milk… I am afraid that in one week, people will be killing from hunger.”
  • “People are walking like zombies looking for food,” said a medical student in Leyte. “It’s like a movie.”
  • A tourist describing the scene of total devastation in Tacloban City said: “It’s like the end of the world.”
  • Aerial surveys show “significant damage to coastal areas” with large ships thrown ashore, countless homes destroyed and large swathes of crops “decimated,” said The U.N.’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).
  • President Benigno Aquino is reportedly considering to impose martial law to stem the widespread looting (!)

ty haiyan 10-11-13
Typhoon HAIYAN – IR/Water Vapor Difference [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] satellite image (recorded at 02:30UTC on November 10, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

UPDATES – Saturday November 9, 2013

  • As of 12:00UTC the typhoon-related death toll had climbed to 1,200, but it’s expected to rise sharply.
  • Large scale devastation has occurred in the islands of Leyte and Samar, which is consistent with FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models.
  • At least 36 provinces, out of a total of 80, have been severely affected.
  • FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.
  • At least 4.3 million people have been affected including about 350,000 who have lost their homes, according to the Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).
  • The Super Typhoon pummeled seven of the country’s 17 regions, causing large-scale power outages across much of the disaster areas.
  • There are numerous reports of widespread looting across the disaster zone.
  • Dozens of towns throughout the disaster zone have declared states of calamity.
  • HAIYAN is currently targeting South China, moving close  to Vietnam shoreline, according to revised projections suggested by several models. This would be a nightmare scenario for Vietnam because the typhoon could dump 4 to 6 times more rain over the country, and affect a much larger land area, than previously forecast, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.
  • Chinese authorities have issued a level three emergency response as the recently downgraded Cat 2 typhoon approaches southern China.

FIRE-EARTH Models show storm surges of up to 20 meters high, generated by the Super Typhoon, striking coastal areas in the Bicol Peninsula. SEE

[NOTE: To those reporters who have difficulty understanding the basic mechanics of tsunamis:  The height of tsunamis are governed by at least two major factors, in this case, (i) the initial height of the storm surge, and (ii) the geographical characteristics of the attack area. This is best described by Diposaptono et al in their paper Impacts of the 2011 East Japan tsunami in the Papua region, Indonesia: field observation data and numerical analyses – Geophysical Journal International, Volume 194, Issue 3, p.1625-1639.

… the impacts of the 2011 East Japan tsunami in Yos Sudarso Bay, Papua, Indonesia. Although the far-field tsunami had a height of 0.8 m measured at a tide gauge inside the small U-shaped bay, it severely damaged four villages scattered along the bay. Detailed numerical analysis was carried out to explain the damages. We used a well-verified source model in the near- and far-field cases to model the propagation of the tsunami southward in the Pacific until reaching Papua Island, Indonesia. The numerical analyses demonstrate two causes of damage in the bay: the maximum tsunami velocity (3.5 m s-1) floated the houses in the villages of Tobati and Enggros and caused them to collapse, and water trapped by the hook-shaped peninsula amplified the tsunami height at the Holtekamp and Hanurata.

Extent of the Devastation

“From a helicopter, you can see the extent of devastation. From the shore and moving a kilometer inland, there are no structures standing. It was like a tsunami,” said Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas.
“The dead are on the streets, they are in their houses, they are under the debris, they are everywhere,” said Tecson John Lim, a Tacloban city administrator.

“I have never seen such damage in my life,” said Capt John Andrews, deputy director general of the Civil Aviation Authority in the Philippines. I saw “utter destruction.”

“At the airport, there’s actually no structure left standing except the walls,” he told reporters.

Bohol Island Earthquake Disaster Update

Meantime, the following disaster update has been issued for the M7.2 earthquake that struck Bohol Island on October 15 2013.

  • Number of people killed:  195  + (12 others missing, presumed dead)
  • Injuries: 651
  • About 350,000 people have been displaced.

The earthquake triggered massive landslides causing extensive damage to housing, hospitals, schools, infrastructure and utilities, with more than 53,300 houses severely damaged or destroyed.

More details to follow…

This post will be updated throughout Sunday.

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You can run, you can even hide, BUT…

Posted by feww on November 9, 2013

Symbolic Count- down: 854 Days Left

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity that is caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, leading to a total collapse.

The reality: Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems

FIRE-EARTH - HION Index - 1 JULY 2013 - hsc2
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) skyrockets to a new high

The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 323 on July 1, 2013. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.23 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

  • The index is rising exponentially.
  • HIoN has risen 38 points, or more than 13 percent, since July 2012 when it reached 285.
  • The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show climate change forcings and feedbacks switching global weather patterns onto “primordial tracks.”

FIRE-EARTH Population Model shows mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

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Iraq Violence Death Toll Nears 7,200 in 10 Months

Posted by feww on November 2, 2013

Bloody October Leaves about 3,000 Iraqis Dead or Wounded

The death toll from violence in Iraq  reached at least 1,095 in October, according to Iraq Body Count and 979, according to the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).

Additionally, about 16,000 others have been wounded in the deadly violence so far this year. 

Some 852 civilians and 127 members of the Iraqi Security Forces were killed in October, while 1,902 others were wounded, including 1,793 civilians and 109 security personnel, reported UNAMI.

ALL Iraqis, civilians, soldiers and security personnel, are prime targets for Saudi-backed Sunni militants seeking to destabilize the country’s Shia-led government.

UNAMI 2013 Stats for Armed Violence in Iraq

According to information collected by UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and other sources, a minimum of 7,168 civilians [to be confirmed] have been killed and about 16,000 others wounded so far this year.

  • In October 2013, at least 1,095 people were killed and more than 1,900 others wounded.
    • October death toll for Iraq was 979, exactly the same as September toll (!), according to UNAMI.
  • In September 2013, at least 1,220 civilians were killed and about 2,000 others wounded
    • Baghdad, 1 October 2013 – According to casualty figures released today by UNAMI, a total of 979 Iraqis were killed and another 2,133 were wounded in acts of terrorism and violence in September.
  • In August 2013, a minimum of 716 civilians were killed (including 106 civilian police) a further 1,936 were injured (including 195 civilian police) in ongoing armed violence in Iraq
  • In July 2013, at least 928 were killed (including 204 civilian police) a further 2,109 were injured (including 338 civilian police) in ongoing armed violence in Iraq during July 2013.
  • In June 2013, a minimum of 685 civilians were killed and 1,610 were injured.
  • In May 2013, at least 963 civilians were killed and 2,191 were injured.
  • In April 2013, a minimum of 595 civilians were killed and 1481 were injured.
  • In March 2013, at least 229 civilians were killed and 853 were injured.
  • In January 2013, at least 319 civilians were killed and 960 were injured.
  • In December 2012, 230 civilians were killed and 655 were injured.
  • In November 2012, 445 civilians were killed and 1306 were injured.

ALL figures remain estimates until full investigation and analysis have been carried out, said UNAMI.

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Typhoon KROSA Destroys or Damages 19,000 Homes in Philippines

Posted by feww on November 2, 2013

KROSA affects more than 100,000 people in Luzon, Philippines

Typhoon KROSA, locally known as VINTA, has affected more than 24,000 families (104,828 people) in 26 municipalities and a city in five province of Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Abra and Apayao, the government’s disaster response agency reported Saturday.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) issued that following  typhoon damage report:

  • 24,123 families ((104,828 people) affected in three regions in Luzon, Ilocos, Cagayan and the Cordillera Administrative Regions.
  • Some 299 families have been displaced displaced.
  • A total of 1,737 houses totally damaged (destroyed) and 13,174 others are partially damaged by the typhoon.
  • KROSA swept through northern Luzon provinces with maximum sustained winds of 130 kilometers per hour gusting to 160 km/hr.

The typhoon left the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday and is currently heading toward central Vietnam/  Indochina Peninsula via Hainan Island.

KROSA is currently a well-defined Cat 3A Typhoon on FIRE-EARTH New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of about 180 km/hr gusting up to 230 km/hr.

Typhoon KROSA Details

  • Time: At 03:00UTC on November 2, 2013
  • Position: NEAR 19.6N, 115.6E.
  • Location: About 350km SSE of Hong Kong
  • Speed and Direction: Tracking Westward at about 9 km/hr
  • Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 180 km/hr
  • Maximum Wind Gusts: 230 km/hr
  • Maximum Significant Wave Height: 14m

[Source:  FEWW, JTWC and others]

Google continues filtering information posted on FIRE-EARTH blog and excludes images posted here from its searches.

google logo of the day 2
Typhoon KROSA Special Message.

VIS/IR (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) Satellite Image of Typhoon KROSA

KROSA 2nov13
Typhoon KROSA – Vis/IR Satellite Image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) – Recorded at 02:30UTC on Nov. 2, 2013. Source of the original image: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Typhoon Stats for NW Pacific

  • The 60 year average (1951-2010) No of Typhoons: 20.9
  • No of typhoons so far this year: 29
  • Percent Increase: 38.8 [Calculated by FIRE-EARTH blog]

typhoon list 2013

More details to follow…

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Earthquakes Destroy or Damage Thousands of Homes in NE China

Posted by feww on November 1, 2013

Quakes injure a dozen people, but cause much devastation in Jilin Province, NE China

Two moderate earthquakes, measuring magnitudes 5.5 and 5.0 respectively, struck Songyuan City in NE China’s Jillin Province Thursday morning local time, destroying at least 55 homes and damaging more than 4,100 others, said a report.

The larger of the two quakes was centered at 44.6ºN, 124.2ºE, according to the country’s Earthquake Networks Center.

Local officials have relocated more than 14,400 residents in Chaganhua Town, the report said.

“Telecommunications have been cut off in Dongbaiyinhua Village, located at the quake’s epicenter, according to an officer from Qian Gorlos Mongol Autonomous County.”

The cost of damage and associated economic losses have been estimated at about 130 million yuan ($21.33 million).

china quake 1nov2013
Original Caption: Rescuers set up tents at a temporary shelter in quake-hit Qian’an County of Songyuan City, northeast China’s Jilin Province, Nov. 1, 2013. Two earthquakes, 5.5-magnitude and 5.0-magnitude respectively, jolted Songyuan City of Jilin Province Thursday morning, leaving at least 12 people injured and many houses damaged. The Jilin provincial government has allotted 10 million yuan (about 1.6 million U.S. dollars) in disaster relief funds to the quake-hit region. Relief teams have also been sent there. A shipment of 1,100 tents, 1,000 quilts and 100 folding beds has been sent to the area. Bottled water, bread and instant noodles are being given out to quake victims.(Xinhua/Zhang Nan). More images…

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Major Disaster Declared in North Dakota

Posted by feww on November 1, 2013

North Dakota Declared Federal Disaster Area due to Damage Caused by Severe Winter Storm

The White House has declared a major disaster exists in the State of North Dakota due to extensive damage caused by a severe winter storm during the period of October 4-5, 2013.

Areas worst affected by the severe winter storm are the counties of Adams, Bowman, Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Sioux, and Slope, said The White House Office of the Press Secretary.

Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments, said FEMA.

Recent Federal Disaster Declarations

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Halloween Storm Forces Thousands of Evacuations

Posted by feww on November 1, 2013

Trick-or-treat storms batter a vast region in the U.S.

Heavy rain and high winds forced dozens of U.S. cities and towns into cancelling Halloween activities on Thursday, battering a vast region from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes.

“The cities of Indianapolis and Muncie, Indiana, postponed trick-or-treating, local officials said. Toledo and at least 30 cities in Central Ohio put it off until Friday or as late as Sunday, according to the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission’s website,” said a report.

The storm system, aided by the remnants of Hurricane Raymond, which dissipated over the Pacific on Tuesday, dumped as much as 15 inches of rain over Austin area, killing at least two people, and forcing some 1,000 residences to evacuate due to flooding.

“For certain areas, it looks like this will be in their Top 10 [flood events] of all time,” said a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio office.

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Crop Disaster Declared in Maine and Montana

Posted by feww on November 1, 2013

14 Counties in Maine and Montana Declared Agricultural Disaster Areas

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated seven counties in Maine as a agricultural  disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by excessive precipitation that occurred from May 8 – September 25, 2013.

  • The disaster areas in Maine are Somerset, Aroostook, Franklin, Kennebec, Penobscot, Piscataquis and Waldo counties.

Montana Disaster Designations

USDA has designated seven counties in the state of Montana as crop disaster areas due to losses caused by hail, high winds and severe storms that occurred July 8 – August 3, 2013.

  • Those areas are Custer, Carter, Fallon, Garfield, Powder River, Prairie and Rosebud counties.

Crop Disaster Losses 2013

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has declared 3,858 county-level crop disaster areas across 43 states, so far this year.

The crop disasters for year 2013 include losses and damages caused by

DROUGHT
FLOOD
Flash flooding
Excessive rain, moisture, humidity
Severe Storms, thunderstorms
Ground Saturation, Standing Water
Hail
Wind, High Winds
Fire, Wildfire
Heat, Excessive heat, High temp. (incl. low humidity)
Winter Storms, Ice Storms, Snow, Blizzard
Frost, FREEZE
Hurricanes, Typhoons, Tropical Storms
Tornadoes
Volcano
Mudslides, Debris Flows, Landslides
Heavy Surf
Ice Jams
Insects
Tidal Surges
Cold, wet weather
Cool/Cold, Below-normal Temperatures
Lightning
Disease

Notes:
1. USDA trigger point for a countywide disaster declaration is 30 percent crop loss on at least one crop.

2. The total number of counties designated as agricultural disaster areas includes both primary and contiguous disaster areas.

3. The U.S. has a total of 3,143 counties and county-equivalents.

4. A number of counties have been designated crop disaster areas more than once due to multiple disasters.

5. The disaster designations were approved by USDA between January 9 and October 30, 2013.

Recent Crop Disaster Designations

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North Carolina Declared Federal Disaster Area

Posted by feww on October 31, 2013

Severe storms, flooding, landslides, and mudslides prompt Major Disaster Declaration for NC

North Carolina has been declared a Federal Disaster Area by the White House due to severe storms, flooding, landslides, and mudslides  that occurred on July 27, 2013.

Severe storms, flooding, landslides, and mudslides have severely affected the counties of Ashe, Avery, Catawba, Lincoln, Watauga and Wilkes, said the White House in a statement.

Additional designations may be made at a later date if requested by the state and warranted by the results of further damage assessments, said FEMA.

Recent Federal Disaster Declarations

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Japan Disaster PM Declares Izu Oshima Island “Severe Disaster Area”

Posted by feww on October 30, 2013

Once again Japanese authorities stand accused of “criminal negligence” for failing to save lives

Japan’s disaster Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited typhoon-hit volcanic island of Izu Oshima on Sunday and declared the devastation caused by the Typhoon WIPHA as a “disaster of extreme severity.”

Just about everyone and their uncle knew typhoon WIPHA was a very intense storm capable of causing major damage, possibly multiple deaths.

Even Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) had earlier warned about the severity of the typhoon, which failed to make a direct hit, describing it as a “once a decade” type of storm.

The storm triggered deadly mudslides on the island destroying homes and burying residents alive on October 16. At least 32 people were killed and about a dozen were missing, presumed dead.

Once again the authorities in Japan have been accused of “criminal negligence” for failing to issue adequate warnings and evacuation alerts as the deadly storm approached, which would have saved dozens of lives.

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Deadly Storm Prompts State of Emergency in Russia

Posted by feww on October 30, 2013

St. Jude Hits Northwest Russia, State of emergency Declared in Pskov 

The deadly storm reached northwestern Russia on Tuesday after wreaking havoc in several other countries in northern and northwestern Europe since early Monday, disrupting transport, power and communication lines in three northwestern Russian regions and prompting a state of emergency declaration in Pskov, said a report quoting sources from local weather agency.

Tens of thousands of people in Pskov and St. Petersburg were left without power, as the storm barreled through the region.

The storm knocked out power to about 100,000 households in Estonia and Latvia, which border Pskov Oblast.

St Jude left at least 15 people dead including seven in Germany, four in Britain, two in the Netherlands and one each in France and Denmark and knocked out power to about a million homes and business across northwestern Europe, including 750,000 customers in Britain.

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