Archive for the ‘Earthquake probability’ Category
Posted by feww on April 12, 2014
SEISMIC HAZARD
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Powerful Earthquake Offshore North Solomons
Centered at 6.855°S, 155.017°E the 6.5Mw quake struck at a depth of 39.4km (24.5mi), about 78km (48mi) SW of Panguna, PNG.
The quake followed heightened seismicity in the area triggered by a M7.1 quake that struck 57km SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea on April 11.
Tsunami Evaluation
NO tsunami was detected.
Earthquake Details [USGS/EHP]
Magnitude: 6.5Mw
Location: 6.855°S, 155.017°E depth=39.4km (24.5mi)
Nearby Cities:
- 78km (48mi) SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea
- 91km (57mi) SW of Arawa, Papua New Guinea
- 411km (255mi) SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
- 558km (347mi) ESE of Kimbe, Papua New Guinea
- 613km (381mi) WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
Earthquake Location Map
Latest Seismicity Around PRF
Chile-Peru Trench Continued Seismicity
M6.0 – 84km SW of Iquique, Chile 2014-04-11 00:01:44 UTC
At least two more significant aftershocks struck along the Peru- Chile Trench following the deadly M8.2 quake, which struck Chile on April 1 (UTC).
The other significant aftershock was a M5.0 which struck 88km WNW of Iquique, Chile at 17:49:10 UTC (20.035°S 70.963°W depth=11.8km)
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast
For the next FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast see April 12 Bulletin, which would be released later today – members only.
Related Links
- CHILE MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING – REVISION 3 April 7, 2014
- MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING – REVISION 2 April 3, 2014
- Two Powefull Aftershocks Rock N Chile Coast April 3, 2014
- Disaster Declared for Chile Quake Zone on April 2, 2014
- M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile April 2, 2014
- Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
- Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
- FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
- Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
- Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014
Posted in earhquake hazard, earthquake forecast, Earthquake news, Earthquake probability, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, significant events | Tagged: FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, North Solomons, Panguna, PNG, PNG quake, Sanguma Seamount, tsunami | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on April 7, 2014
REVISED EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
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CHILE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST [REV. 3]
FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench through April 30, 2014.
Some of the quake details have now been revised.
FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: Magnitude 9.4Mw could strike Peru-Chile Trench April 7 – 30, with a probability of 24%.
See below for revised details:
Forecast Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Location: 22.7°S, 70.8°W (Provisional )
Depth: 22km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 7 – 30, 2014 (Peak April 12)
Probability: 24% (provisional)
Tsunami Forecast
Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.
Initial forecast for the Mega Quake posted HERE. REV 2 posted HERE.
CAUTION
1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries, plagiarizing our research.
2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.
3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.
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Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile
On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:
FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.
Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.
Forecast Details for March 17 Chile EQ
- Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
- Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
- Depth: 30km
- Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
- Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
- Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ
Related Links
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan
Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquake Information, Earthquake probability, earthquake report, Earthquake Warning, Global Disaster watch | Tagged: Chile earthquake forecast, CHILE EARTHQUAKE WARNING, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, peru earthquake, Peru-Chile Trench, Tsunami Forecast | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on April 3, 2014
WARNING: NEW EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
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WARNING: MEGA EARTHQUAKE FORECAST [REV. 2]
FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks. Some of the quake details have now been revised.
FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: Magnitude 9.4Mw could strike Peru-Chile Trench April 4 – 30, with a probability of 54%.
See below for revised details:
Forecast Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Location: 22.7°S, 70.8°W (Provisional )
Depth: 22km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 4 – 30, 2014 (Peak April 10)
Probability: 54% (provisional)
Tsunami Forecast
Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.
Initial forecast for the Mega Quake posted HERE.
CAUTION
1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries, plagiarizing our research.
2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.
3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.
.
Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile
On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:
FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.
Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.
Forecast Details
- Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
- Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
- Depth: 30km
- Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
- Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
- Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ
Related Links
FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan
Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.
Posted in earhquake forecast, earthquake, earthquake forecast, Earthquake probability, Global Disaster watch, significant events | Tagged: chile earthquake, earthquake warning, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, mega earthquake, Peru-Chile Trench, Tsunami Forecast | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on September 28, 2013
M6.8 strikes at a depth of 14.8km near Awaran
The quake has killed at least a dozen people and injured more than two dozen others, after it destroyed several houses in Nokjo district of Awaran, Baluchistan, according to early reports.
Meantime, death toll from an earlier earthquake that struck the region on September 24 has reached 515, with about 1,000 others injured, according to local officials.
The earlier quake, which was followed by several significant aftershocks, destroyed thousands of homes in villages near the epicenter, affecting more than 300,000 people in the sparsely populated region.
This earthquake was an aftershock which occurred approximately 30 km to the NNE of the September 24, 2013 M7.7 event, according to USGS/EHP.
EQ Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FIRE-EARTH Blog.
EQ Details [USGS/EHP]
- Event Time: 2013-09-28 07:34UTC
- Epicenter: 27.263°N, 65.587°E
- Depth: 14.8km (9.2mi)
- Nearby Cities
- 96km NNE of Awaran, Pakistan
- 135km NNW of Bela, Pakistan
- 811km ENE of Muscat, Oman
Tectonic Summary
The September 28, 2013 M6.8 earthquake in south-central Pakistan occurred as the result of oblique-strike-slip motion at shallow crustal depths. This earthquake is an aftershock located approximately 30 km to the north-northeast of the September 24, 2013 M7.7 event, which struck with a similar faulting mechanism. As with the September 24 event, the September 28 earthquake mechanism and location are consistent with rupture within the Eurasia plate above the Makran subduction zone. The event occurred within the transition zone between northward subduction of the Arabia plate beneath the Eurasia plate and northward collision of the India plate with the Eurasia plate. … Makran subduction zone has produced large devastating earthquakes and tsunamis. Read more…
Related Links
Posted in disaster areas, disaster calendar, disaster diary, disaster watch, disaster watch 2013, disaster zone, earthquake damage, Earthquake death, Earthquake Hazard, Earthquake Information, Earthquake news, Earthquake probability, earthquake report, earthquake update, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2013, News Alert, Significant Earthquakes, Significant Event Imagery, significant events, significant geophysical disturbances | Tagged: Arabia plate, Awaran, Awaran quake, Baluchistan, Baluchistan province, Deadly Quake, earthquake 2013, EQ Location Map, Eurasia plate, Makran subduction zone, Nokjo town, Pakistan, Pakistan Earthquake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on July 5, 2010
Strong Earthquake Measuring 6.5Mw Strikes Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
The quake epicenter was located near 39.6N,142.7E about 120 km (75 miles) east of Morioka, Honshu, Japan.
Tsunami Status:
Japan Meteorological Agency said ther was no danger of a destructive tsunami.
Quake Damage:
The tremor was felt as far away as in Tokyo, some 510km from the epicenter. There was no report of damage or injuries, as of posting.
Quake Details according to GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin
- Region: Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan
- Time: 2010-07-04 21:55:53.5 UTC
- Magnitude: 6.5Mw
- Epicenter: 142.54°E 39.66°N
- Depth: 37 km
Quake Details according to Japan Meteorological Agency
- Occurred at: 06:56 JST (Sunday, July 04, 2010 at 21:56 UTC)
- Location: 39.6N, 142.7E
- Depth: 30km
- Magnitude: 6.3Mw
- Region Name: Iwate-ken Oki
Quake Details according to USGS/EHP
- Magnitude: 6.4
- Date-Time: Sunday, July 04, 2010 at 21:55:51 UTC
- Location: 39.705°N, 142.523°E
- Depth: 23.7 km (14.7 miles)
- Region: NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
- Distances
- 120 km (75 miles) E of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
- 125 km (80 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
- 195 km (120 miles) SE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
- 510 km (315 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 14.7 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 6.8 km (4.2 miles)
- Event ID us2010yhbp
The Blog Moderators expect more earthquakes, and related disasters, in the 2nd half of 2010 than occurred in the 1st half of this year.
Japan region could be struck by up to 3 additional strong to large earthquakes by end 2010/early 2011, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
Related Links:
Posted in Earthquake news, Earthquake probability, japan earthquake, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan quakes 2010 | Tagged: Hachinohe, Iwate-ken Ok, Japan quake, Morioka quake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on March 24, 2009
Magnitude 7.4 earthquake could strike California in 2009
FEWW Forecasts a magnitude 7.4 earthquake and two strong aftershocks (5.5+ Mw) striking California in 2009 with a probability of 0.8. The occurrence uncertainty is about 90 days from the estimated time. The epicenter is located in a built-up area.
Moderators are currently discussing the merits of disclosing further details of the event too early ahead of the forecast seismicity.
Related Links:
Posted in Earthquake probability, earthquake rupture, GEOSTATISTICS, Seismic Hazard, tectonic stress | Tagged: aftershock forecast, California earthquake, California earthquake forecast, earthquake forecast, seismic event forecast | 42 Comments »
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