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Archive for the ‘earthquake warning Honshu’ Category

Tectonics Update – January 28

Posted by feww on January 28, 2012

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  • Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
  • Probability of Occurrence
    • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
    • Jun –  Nov 2012: 68%
    • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
    • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
  • Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

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Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Global Tectonics Alert – April 9

Posted by feww on April 9, 2011

JPTRMT1

This is an amendment to an earlier release dated April 8, 2011

Japan Earthquake Forecast

FIRE-EARTH estimates that about 80 exajoules (EJ) of tectonic stress energy could be accumulated in Japan Region between now and early 2016.

Most of the energy is forecast to be released as large earthquakes including a massive shock, a Megathrust earthquake, the largest on record, measuring 10.0+Mw releasing about 64EJ of energy.

[NOTE: The 1960 Valdivia earthquake (The Great Chilean Earthquake) is the largest ever earthquake recorded measuring 9.5Mw. The quake struck on May 22, 1960 at 38.29ºS, 73.0ºW. Seismic moment release: ~ 11.3 EJ]

Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)  could break up the Honshu island into some half dozen fragments and scores of smaller splinters. [An impression depicting the new geography of the islands may be posted later.]

The Megashock could trigger a colossal tsunami completely submerging coastal areas around the Pacific Ocean, and traveling many miles inland.

JPTRMT1 could trigger multiple volcanic eruptions throughout Japan Region and rest of the western half of the PRF, as far away as in Alaska, the Philippines, Indonesia, PNG, Fiji, Tonga, New Zealand and rest of the South Pacific region. [Groups J, H, K and L on the map below.

The 10.0+Mw Megashock, its massive aftershocks, the spawned mountainous tsunamis and the multiple volcanic eruptions would cause  death and destruction on unprecedented scales throughout the Pacific Rim countries and beyond.

The impact of the volcanic eruptions would affect the entire world, resulting in severe climatic episodes, major losses of crops, famine and exacerbate mass dieoffs, which may have already started as a result of drought and deluge and other collapse mechanisms.


Map of Volcanoes.
Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Forecast Details

  • Name Assigned by FIRE-EARTH: Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)
  • Location: Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
  • Depth: ~ 26km
  • Magnitude: 10.0+Mw
  • Energy released: ~ 64EJ
  • Largest Aftershocks:  ~ 9.0 Mw
  • JPTRMT1 and its Massive aftershocks would trigger dozens of colossal super tsunamis.
  • The unprecedented super seismic episode could trigger between 40 and 80 volcanoes to erupt simultaneously, shortly after the mainshock strikes.
  • Millions of people could perish within the first few hours, and hundreds of millions more left without clean water, food, or shelter, as a result of the events.

Alaska Update [15:00UTC]

FIRE-EARTH Model shows continued buildup of tectonic stress energy near the coast of Alaska.

See: Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 3

Last updated: 11:24 UTC April 19, 2010

Global Disasters

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Posted in earthquake energy, Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan Trench Megathrust earthquake, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

Global Disaster Forecast – 16 Mar 2011

Posted by feww on March 16, 2011

This is an amendment to an earlier release dated March 12, 2011

In Global Tectonics Warning – March 12

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:

NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

Based on their Earth Model, FEWW Moderators believe the world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in western United States with a probability of 0.74.

Amended to:

THE WORLD’S NEXT MAJOR DISASTER COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

The world’s next major human-enhanced natural disaster [e.g., climate related] could occur in the United States with a probability of 0.75

The world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in

  1. Western United States, Taiwan or Indonesia [Probability of 0.74]
  2. New Zealand or Chile [Probability of 0.73]
  3. Japan Region [Probability of 0.72]

Related Links:

  • EQJP [Includes Summary of Japan Earthquake Forecasts]

Posted in 2011 chile earthquakes, 2011 disaster forecast, 2011 disasters, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, FEWW Volcanic Forecast | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Powerful 6.9Mw Quake Strikes Bonin Islands, Japan

Posted by feww on November 30, 2010

Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake Strikes Bonin Islands, Rattling Japan’s Entire Eastern Seaboard

The quake struck at a depth of about 480km, too deep to cause a tsunami.


Earthquake Location Map.
Cross shows epicenter of the 6.9Mw quake
, while the colored bubbles indicate  the intensity at various monitoring centers in Japan. Source: Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA). Image may be subject to copyright.

Quake Details (JMA)

  • Time Occurred:  12:25 (JST) 30 Nov 2010
  • Epicenter: 28.4N, 139.7E
  • Dept: 480km
  • Magnitude: 6.9 Mw
  • Region Name:  Ogasawara-shoto Seiho-oki (Bonin Islands), Japan Region

Distances (USGS)

  • 335 km (210 miles) WNW of Chichi-shima, Bonin Islands, Japan
  • 455 km (285 miles) NNW of Iwo Jima, Volcano Islands, Japan
  • 525 km (325 miles) S of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
  • 810 km (500 miles) S of TOKYO, Japan

Japan Earthquake Forecasts (FEWW)

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Posted in earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes 2010, Japan earthquake forecast, Tokyo Bay earthquake, tokyo quake forecast | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

M 7.4 Quake Strikes Vanuatu Islands

Posted by feww on August 10, 2010

A Powerful Earthquake Measuring at least 7.4Mw Strikes Vanuatu Islands, Triggers Local Tsunami

The earthquake, epicentered at 168.02°E, 17.48°S, struck at about 05:24UTC  at a depth of about 45km, creating a small tsunami measuring up to a height of about 70 – 80cm.

There were no reports of casualties or major damage, as of posting; however, according to eyewitness reports the powerful quake shook the ground for about 10 seconds.

At last a dozen aftershocks, some measuring greater than 5.0Mw, have so far occurred. More aftershocks should be expected.

Earthquake Details:

Region: Vanuatu Islands
Time: 2010-08-10 05:23:47.8 UTC
Magnitude: 7.4
Epicenter: 168.02°E 17.48°S
Depth: 45 km
Source: GFZ Potsdam – Earthquake Bulletin

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Posted in earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes 2010, Espiritu Santo | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Strong Earthquake Hits SoCal

Posted by feww on June 15, 2010

Earthquake Measuring Up to Magnitude 6.0Mw Strikes Southern California

The quake and its aftershocks may have caused some structural damage near the epicenter.

Fire Earth has abandoned its research into California earthquakes. The following details were released by USGS/EHP.

  • Magnitude: 5.9
  • Date-Time:
    • Tuesday, June 15, 2010 at 04:26:58 UTC
    • Monday, June 14, 2010 at 09:26:58 PM at epicenter
  • Location: 32.698°N, 115.924°W
  • Depth: 6.9 km (4.3 miles)
  • Region: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Distances:
    • 8 km (5 miles) SE (124°) from Ocotillo, CA
    • 24 km (15 miles) WSW (244°) from Seeley, CA
    • 26 km (16 miles) ENE (70°) from Jacumba Hot Springs, CA
    • 36 km (22 miles) WSW (254°) from El Centro, CA
    • 104 km (65 miles) E (79°) from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico
  • Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles); depth +/- 1.4 km (0.9 miles)
  • Parameters: Nph= 62, Dmin=6 km, Rmss=0.32 sec, Gp= 76°, M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=z
  • Source:
    • California Integrated Seismic Net:
    • USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
  • Event ID ci14745580

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,115°W


Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP

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Posted in 2010 earthquakes, earthquake, earthquake 2010, Earthquake Hazard, earthquake warning Honshu | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

FEWW Earthquake WARNING: JAPAN Region

Posted by feww on September 4, 2009

FEWW Earthquake Warning:

Large Earthquake Forecast in Japan Region

A large earthquake east of Honshu, Japan Region,  may be imminent (in the next few hours).

10-degree Map Centered at 35°N,140°E

latest quakes in Japan 04-09-09 -- 02-30-29 UTC
Location Map of latest earthquakes in Japan. Source: USGS

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Posted in earthquake warning Honshu, large earthquakes, Tokyo Bay earthquake, tokyo earthquake | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »