Archive for the ‘El Niño conditions’ Category
Posted by feww on June 8, 2012
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,377 Days Left
[June 8, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,377 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background
Posted in DWV virus, El Niño, El Niño conditions, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012 | Tagged: 2012 disaster calendar, antibiotic-resistant bacteria, antibiotic-resistant superbug, Apiculture, Bee, Bee-killing virus, collapse, colony collapse disorder, disaster calendar, energy dinosaurs, global climate change, Global Climate Extremes, global collapse, Global Disaster Forecast, human-enhanced natural disasters, Mass die-offs, Mega Disasters, Varroa mite | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on September 19, 2010
La Niña Conditions Continue to Strengthen Across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Above map shows a 10-day average of sea-surface height and was acquired by the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 satellite on September 6, 2010. Higher water surface areas signifying warmer temperatures are shades of red-brown, and areas of lower water surface (cooler) are blue. White areas are normal condition. “The El Niño weakens the westward trade winds that normally blow over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Those winds keep eastern Pacific waters cool and concentrate warm waters in the western Pacific. A weakening of trade winds enables warm waters to gradually spread eastward, heating up the central Pacific. La Niña typically follows El Niño, and causes essentially the opposite conditions. La Niña strengthens the trade winds, spreading cool water from the South American coast to the central Pacific. This see-saw pattern of El Niño and La Niña can drive large-scale weather changes, especially in the tropics.” Full caption here… Source: NASA E/O. Click image to enlarge. Download large image (1 MB, PNG).
Sea Surface Temperatures
50 KM Global Analysis – updated weekly.
Current Conditions
Source: NWS/CPC/NOAA
Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomalies During El Niño
Above image shows SST Anomalies during the 2009 El Niño episode, saved on July 27, 2009 and included for comparison.
Related Links:
Posted in El Niño, El Niño conditions, El Niño episode, El Niño impact, La Niña, La Niña episode | Tagged: negative ONI, SST anomalies, Trade winds, tropical Pacific Ocean | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on February 10, 2010
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
Click images to enlarge
From December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since mid January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has become established over the eastern Pacific. Overmuch of N. America, strong ridging over Canada has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the contiguous U.S. This recent pattern is typical of El Niño.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
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Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño conditions, El Niño impact, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño update 2010, El Niño weekly report | Tagged: El Niño drought, El Niño impact, El Niño rain, El Niño update Feb, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, SST anomalies, Tropical Pacific SST | 5 Comments »
Posted by feww on October 6, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 5 Oct 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Highlights
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.
The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño conditions, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: El Niño, ENSO, Equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, Sub-Surface Temperature Departures, Tropical Pacific, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
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