ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 February 2010
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.
Click images to enlarge
From December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since mid January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has become established over the eastern Pacific. Overmuch of N. America, strong ridging over Canada has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the contiguous U.S. This recent pattern is typical of El Niño.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The NCEP CFS predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
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El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:
- El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]
- El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]
- El Niño Weekly Update [18 Jan 2010]
- El Niño Weekly Update [11 Jan 2010]
- El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]
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