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Archive for the ‘ENSO’ Category

El Niño Update [29 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 30, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  29 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.0ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures  (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave
  • Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Click images to enlarge.





Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
  • The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persists into the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 6 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño update, El Niño update MARCH 2010, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

El Niño Update [22 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 24, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  22 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ (– 0.1ºC)


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Summary:

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 5 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Tropical Pacific SST | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

Your Worst Fears About El Niño

Posted by feww on March 21, 2010

Worst fears about El Niño may come true

The El Niño, formally known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short, is the most significant cause of large-scale climate variability in the tropics. El Niño episodes bring warmer than normal waters to the central and eastern Pacific Ocean from Indonesia in the western end to South America in the eastern end of the  ocean, helping to maintain the above-normal sea surface temperatures.

Figure below shows one of these Kelvin Waves progressing across the Pacific in February 2010.

Kelvin Wave Renews El Niño

The globes show sea surface height anomalies, which means places where the water surface is higher (red) or lower (blue) than average. A higher-than-average sea surface height at a given location indicates that there is a deeper-than-normal layer of warm water. Lower-than-average sea surface height indicates a shallower layer of warm water. The globes are based on 10 days of data centered on January 15, January 30, and February 15.

In January (left-hand globe), sea surface heights across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were elevated (red), but not extremely so, potentially a sign that El Niño was weakening. But in early February, a strong sea level anomaly appeared northeast of Australia (center globe). This swell of deep, warm water is the start of the Kelvin wave, and by late February, it had spread eastward into the central Pacific (right-hand globe) and re-invigorated the current El Niño.

Where do Kelvin waves come from? Under normal conditions, the tropics’ prevailing easterly winds push Sun-warmed surface waters across the Pacific from the Americas toward Indonesia, creating a deep pool of warm water in the western Pacific. During an El Niño, the trade winds falter, and sometimes even reverse, for months. When the winds that maintain the warm pool falter, a large pulse of warm water from the western Pacific slides back toward the east. NASA Earth Observatory images by Jesse Allen, Kevin Ward, and Robert Simmon. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, based on interpretation provided by Josh Willis and Bill Patzert, NASA JPL.

Related Links

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in El Niño episode, ENSO, Equatorial Pacific, Kelvin Waves, Trade winds | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

El Niño Update [8 March 2010]

Posted by feww on March 9, 2010

Fire-Earth Forecast: More extremes of weather could affect western, northwestern and northern regions of  South America throughout the spring 2010, possibly extending into the summer.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  8 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

Source: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates – Last 4 Weeks:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño report, El Niño today, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]

Posted by feww on February 3, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  1 February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.3ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 150°W.

Click on the images to enlarge

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

  • El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [18 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 19, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  18 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.1ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 145°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased in parts of the eastern Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • During late November –December 2009, positive temperature anomalies expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • In late December 2009, positive anomalies increased in the central equatorial Pacific in association with another Kelvin wave.
  • The most recent period (below) indicates a broad area of above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Click image to enlarge.


Intraseasonal Variability

  • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
  • Related to this activity
    • Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary:

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [11 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 12, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  11 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks


During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average in regions east of the Date Line.

Global SST Departures (°C)


During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC to 3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [4 Jan 2010]

Posted by feww on January 5, 2010

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  4 January 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.8ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-3.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring [and summer] 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

For additional information, previous entries and diagrams see links below:

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño 2010, El Niño update 2010, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?

Posted by feww on December 15, 2009

El Niño May Continue into Summer 2010 [and Beyond]

El Niño Weekly Update [14 Dec 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  14 December 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 1.3ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 1.8ºC
  • Niño 3  ~ 1.6ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (ºC)

  • LongitudeTimeDuring November 2008-February 2009, negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies covered the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Since the beginning of June 2009, SST anomalies have been at least +0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific.
  • During October 2009, positive SST anomalies increased across much of the equatorial Pacific.
  • During November 2009, positive SST anomalies remained nearly unchanged.
  • Recently, positive SST anomalies increased across the east-central Pacific.

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific east of 170ºE, and more than 2.0°C above average across portions of the eastern half of the Pacific. Click image to enlarge.

Global SST Departures (°C)


During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics
. Click image to enlarge.


Click image to enlarge.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesSince


Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Click image to enlarge.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific


Click image to enlarge.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During the last half of October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridging over the higher latitudes. By early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights near Alaska. This pattern led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States and below-average temperatures in Alaska. Since late November, the pattern has reversed again with below-average heights in the mid-latitudes and above-average heights over Alaska.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 December 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 [and beyond.]

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


Posted in Climate Prediction, ENSO, Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific SST Outlook, SST anomalies | Tagged: , , , , , , | 14 Comments »

El Niño Weekly Update [7 Dec 2009]

Posted by feww on December 8, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  7 December 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies only changed in small regions across the equatorial Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

  • During October –November 2009, positive temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
  • The most recent period indicates the eastward expansion of positive anomalies has slowed in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
See:
El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

(A) The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with positive anomalies becoming established in late March.

(B) In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker-than-average easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.

Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average, but there has been considerable month-to-month variability due to Kelvin wave activity.

(C) During November, the downwellingphase of a Kelvin wave contributed to an increase in heat content.

Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warmp hase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s -1)
From April-October 2009, the MJO was weak to nonexistent. Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.During November 2009, the MJO became active, which contributed to anomalous easterlies shifting eastward from the Indian Ocean to the central and eastern Pacific. Recently, westerly anomalies have returned across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Pacific SST Outlook | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]

Posted by feww on December 1, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  30 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.


[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some parts across the eastern Pacific.

|

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

TOP: Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
Middle: Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies remained over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Above: Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific. An anticycloniccouplet was evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridge over Alaska and the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. During November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights across Alaska. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United Statesand below-average temperatures in Alaska.

Intraseasonal Variability

  • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
  • Related to this activity
    • Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Pacific SST Outlook, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

    El Niño Update [23 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 24, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  23 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]


    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.


    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.

    Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific

    • The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
    • The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
    • Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day

    Click image to enlarge.

    Intraseasonal Variability

    • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
    • Related to this activity
      • significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
      • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia

    Posted by feww on November 19, 2009

    Another Human Induced Planetary Antiphase Event

    El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence


    Recent measurements of sea level height from the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite showed that a strong wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave, had spread from the western to the central and eastern Pacific. This warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights in the area between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude.

    This image was created with data collected OSTM/Jason 2 during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. Red and white areas in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were 100 to 180 millimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. In the western equatorial Pacific, blue and purple areas show where sea levels were between 80 and 150 millimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal.

    Sea surface height is an indication of temperature.The elevated sea levels in the central and eastern Pacific are equivalent to sea surface temperatures more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit).

    The Kelvin wave was triggered by a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October. The change in winds disturbs not only the surface currents but also the deeper ocean circulation. The disturbances reverberate along the thermocline—the boundary between warm, surface water and cold, deep water—as large, slow-moving waves. Similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and have sustained the present El Niño.

    NASA image by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Ocean Surface Topography Team. Caption adapted from the Planetary Photojournal. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    Posted in eastern Pacific, ENSO, Kelvin wave, thermocline, Trade winds | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

    El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 17, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  16 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
    During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
    Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
    the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

    El Niño Update [10 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 11, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  9 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.

    Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s-1)

    • Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
    • Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
    • Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 3, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  2 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.5ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    SST Tep Dept Eq Pacific

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

    HC evo eq Pacific

    200-hpa Vel Pot Anom

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November  2009
    The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean SST, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [28 Oct 2009]

    Posted by feww on October 28, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  26  October 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.

    SSTD EP 26-10-09

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

    200-hpa Vel Pot Anom

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

    SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
    The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Gulf of Alaska, Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [13 Oct 2009]

    Posted by feww on October 14, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 13 October 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 1.0ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.7)ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
    During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, except in the far eastern Pacific, which have become negative. •During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over much of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    SSTD - Eq Pac sml

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has dominated the Gulf of Alaska, and a downstream trough has led tobelow-average temperatures across much of the western and northern U.S.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5ºC to +2.0ºC), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [28 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 29, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 28 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ -0.1ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    SST anom 28-sept-09

    Highlights

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures  (ºC)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last month, there was little change in the equatorial SST anomalies.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • In the first half of September 2009, temperature anomalies increased in the eastern Pacific due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period shows a continuation of positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest values between 50-150m depth.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    During late July through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a trough over the southern U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    Enso Forecasts Sept 2009
    Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

    ONI Evolution
    The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.

    Summary:

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [21 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 22, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 21 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    sst anom 21 sep 09

    Highlights

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

    Global SST Departures  (ºC)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
    During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. •During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive in the east-central Pacific.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    During late July through mid-September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. Downstream over the United States, the anomalous height pattern generally featured a trough over the eastern United States with ridging prevalent over the western U.S. This anomalous pattern led to below-average temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. and to above-average temperatures over portions of the western U.S.

    ONI Evolution
    The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    Enso Forecasts Sept 2009
    Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

    SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 20 September 2009
    The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves, equatorial Pacific Ocean

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    Vanishing Fred & Atlantic Hurricane Season 2009

    Posted by feww on September 11, 2009

    Wondering what happened to the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

    As [tiny] Fred begins to fizzles out of its hurricane status in the Atlantic ocean about 1,190 km (740 miles) west of Cape Verde Islands, mot everyone must be thinking whatever happened to the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

    jsl-l - Fred
    Hurricane Fred. GOES Floater Imagery – Still Image – See inset for date and time. Click image to enlarge and update.

    Summary of Hurricane Fred Status: Fred is weakening further as it slows down more.
    AT 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10, Fred was located at 17.4°N 35.1°W, at max sustained wind speeds of about  140 km/h (85 mph) moving north at a forward speed of 5 km/h
    (3 mph) with a min pressure of 735.1 mmHg (80 mb), NHC/NOAA said, expecting it to downgrade to a tropical storm within the next 24 hrs.

    For one thing, it’s not over yet, at least not until the “fat lady” strikes. The peak months are August to October.

    For another, the strengthening El Niño episode seems to be disrupting storm formation in the Main Hurricane Development Region, the Atlantic basin, AND forcing the storms away from land.

    In fact, NOAA’s updated 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts a 90% chance of a near-normal or below normal hurricane season.

    NOAA recounts two competing climate factors.

    1. The persisting “multi-decadal signal” that has been “associated with elevated levels of Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, along with warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.”

    2. The El Niño episode, which is  “producing increased wind shear in the Main Hurricane Development Region.”

    Based on these mix of climatic factors, NOAA updated prediction for the 2009 hurricane season is

    • 50% chance of a near-normal season
    • 40% chance of a below normal season
    • Only an unlikely 10% chance of an above-normal season

    The outlook indicates a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges: 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 60%-110% of the median. Most of this activity is expected during the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season.

    For an in-depth analysis by NOAA see: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

    Related Links:

    Posted in Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, Caribbean Sea, El Niño, ENSO, multi-decadal signal, sea surface temperatures, tropical North Atlantic Ocean | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

    El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 8, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC


    El Niño Map.
    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    SST anom 8-sept-09

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    Avg SST anom 8sept09

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    Avg SST anom global 8sep09

    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    ONI (°C): Evolution since 1950
    ONI  8-sept-09

    The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7°C.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    For additional information see following links.

    Relate Links:

    El Niño Updates

    ENSO, wind anomaly , , , ,

    Posted in ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly El Niño | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

    El Niño Update – 10 August 2009

    Posted by feww on August 11, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 10 August 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 1.0ºC

    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

    SST departures Aug 2009

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

    Summary:

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    See  El Niño Home Page

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates

    El Niño, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, equatorial Pacific Ocean, , , , , .

    Posted in El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update # 1

    Posted by feww on July 14, 2009

    For all other El Niño Updates, advisories and information visit El Niño

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions –
    Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP — 13 July 2009

    Summary

    • El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Positive sea surface temperature (SST) departures continue to increase across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

    sst outlook 12 july 2009

    See also: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies for Apr 2009 to Dec 2009

    Related Links:

    Posted in droughts and Deluge, El Niño, ENSO, La Niña, rainfall pattern | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »