Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Archive for the ‘FEWW Volcanic Forecast’ Category

Global Disaster Forecast – 16 Mar 2011

Posted by feww on March 16, 2011

This is an amendment to an earlier release dated March 12, 2011

In Global Tectonics Warning – March 12

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:

NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

Based on their Earth Model, FEWW Moderators believe the world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in western United States with a probability of 0.74.

Amended to:

THE WORLD’S NEXT MAJOR DISASTER COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

The world’s next major human-enhanced natural disaster [e.g., climate related] could occur in the United States with a probability of 0.75

The world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in

  1. Western United States, Taiwan or Indonesia [Probability of 0.74]
  2. New Zealand or Chile [Probability of 0.73]
  3. Japan Region [Probability of 0.72]

Related Links:

  • EQJP [Includes Summary of Japan Earthquake Forecasts]

Posted in 2011 chile earthquakes, 2011 disaster forecast, 2011 disasters, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, FEWW Volcanic Forecast | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Montserrat: What Next?

Posted by feww on December 13, 2009

Uncertain Future for Montserrat Island

Montserrat island could become completely uninhabitable by 2013 or earlier

Based on the pattern of volcanic activity at Soufriere Hills volcano since 1995, evidence of increased volcanism globally and a number of other  factors, the FEWW EarthModel forecasts the probability of Montserrat island becoming completely uninhabitable as follows:

Probability of Montserrat Becoming Uninhabitable in the Near Future

  • 2009 ≥ 50%
  • 2010 ≥ 56%
  • 2011 ≥ 60%
  • 2012 ≥ 70%
  • 2013 ≥ 80%

Montserrat Island Details:

  • Capital:
    • Plymouth (destroyed in 1997- see photo below)
    • Brades (de facto)
  • Location: Montserrat Island
  • Coordinates: (16.72 N, 62.18 W)
  • Height: 915 meters (3,010 feet)
  • Official languages:     English
  • Ethnic groups:     West African, Mulatto, British, Irish
  • Government:     British Overseas Territory
  • Area:   102 km²  (39 sq mi )


View E across ash-covered Plymouth, the former capital city and major port of Montserrat, toward Soufriere Hills volcano.
Before the volcano became active in July 1995, about 5,000 people lived in Plymouth, located 4 km west of English’s Crater. During the first two years of the eruption, ash and noxious gas from explosions and pyroclastic flows frequently settled on Plymouth. On August 3, about 3 weeks after this image was taken, the first significant pyroclastic flow swept through the evacuated town. The flow triggered many fires and caused extensive damage to buildings and community facilities by direct impact and burial.
Date: 12 July 1997. Credit: R.P. Hoblitt/ USGS.


Political map of Caribbean islands.

Related Links:

More Images:

Posted in FEWW Volcanic Forecast, HUMAN EHANCED NATURAL DISASTERS, Pyroclastic flow, volcanic activity | Tagged: , , , | 5 Comments »

VolcanoWatch Weekly [11 Nov 2009]

Posted by feww on November 12, 2009

SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(4 November – 10 November 2009)

New activity/Unrest:

Batur, Bali (Indonesia);  Galeras, Colombia; Karangetang [Api Siau], Siau I; Mayon, Luzon;  Nevado del Huila, Colombia;  Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island; Reventador, Ecuador;  San Vicente, El Salvador

GVP Volcano News:

OVPDLF reported that on 5 November a vent inside the S part of Piton de la Fournaise’s Dolomieu crater opened, following an intense seismic crisis. Within thirty minutes, a fissure on the upper SE flank propagated E and a second fissure opened on the E flank.

PHIVOLCS reported that on 11 November an explosion from Mayon’ssummit crater ejected incandescent rock fragments seen from nearby areas. Cloud cover prevented observations of an ash plume, however fieldinvestigations after the event revealed ashfall to the SW.—GVP

Ongoing Activity:

Chaitén, Southern Chile;  Dukono, Halmahera;  Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka;  Kilauea, Hawaii;  Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia); Koryaksky, Eastern Kamchatka;  Rabaul, New Britain;  Sakura-jima, Kyushu;  Santa María, Guatemala;  Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia); Soufrière Hills, Montserrat; Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)

 

Related Links:

More Links:

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

Other Related Links:

Recent Posts on Chaitén:

Posted in FEWW Volcanic Forecast, volcanism, Volcano Watch, volcanoes, VolcanoWatch Weekly | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

VolcanoWatch Weekly [6 Nov 2009]

Posted by feww on November 6, 2009

VOW: Kilauea

20091104_3687_mrp_L
Click image to enlarge.

20091104_3721_mrp_L
[Top] Activity at the west Waikupanaha ocean entry, where lava reached the ocean this past weekend, continues. The entry spans about 200 yards, with many small lava streams entering the water. [Above] On the east margin of the entry, lobes were advancing over a small black sand beach.  USGS/ HVO [Dated 4 Nov 2009] Click image to enlarge.

More images:

HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE
Thursday, November 5, 2009 7:48 AM HST (Thursday, November 5, 2009 17:48 UTC)

KILAUEA VOLCANO (CAVW #1302-01-)
19°25’16” N 155°17’13” W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Activity Summary for past 24 hours:
Growth and partial collapses of the Halema`uma`u Overlook vent cavity floor continued periodically obscuring and revealing the circulating lava pond surface. Sulfur dioxide emission rates from the Halema`uma`u and east rift zone vents remain elevated. Lava flows are active on the coastal plain. Lava is also flowing through tubes to the coast and entering the ocean at two locations west of Kalapana.

Past 24 hours at Kilauea summit:
The Overlook vent webcam images again showed fluctuating glow and spattering from a single elongated hole deep within the Halema`uma`u vent cavity; the rim of this hole was built progressively inward by spatter making the hole smaller until two more partial collapses occurred early this morning again revealing the circulating and spattering lava pond below. Glow from the vent was visible from Jaggar Museum overnight. This morning, a near white plume is moving southwestward and low over the Ka`u Desert. The most recent sulfur dioxide emission rate measurement was 500 tonnes/day on November 3, which is elevated above the 2003-2007 average of 140 tonnes/day. Small amounts of ash-sized tephra continued to be dropped from the plume near the vent.

Past 24 hours at the middle east rift zone vents and flow field: Magma continued to degas through Pu`u `O`o crater before erupting from the TEB vent, located 2 km to the east. The most recent sulfur dioxide emission rate measurement was 1,400 tonnes/day on November 4, which is close to the 2003-2007 average of 1,700 tonnes/day More …

Kilauea Spews More Lava

kilauea_ali_2009306
The rift zone on the eastern slopes of Hawaii’s Kilauea Volcano has been erupting since January 1983, the longest eruption in recorded history. Pu‘u ‘O‘o and the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout vent—two centers of volcanic activity—emit steam and other gases in this natural-color satellite image. Lava currently reaches the surface at the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout vent and flows southeast (towards the lower right) through a lave tube to the ocean. Small plumes of gas reveal the path of the lava. In general, the youngest lava flows are black, and older, weathered, flows are gray or brown. Surviving vegetation is bright green.
The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s EO-1 satellite acquired this image on November 2, 2009. NASA Earth Observatory image by Robert Simmon, using EO-1 ALI data provided by the NASA EO-1 team. Caption by Robert Simmon. Click image to enlarge.

SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(28October – 3 November 2009)

New activity/Unrest:

Ebeko, Paramushir Island | Galeras, Colombia | Karangetang [Api Siau], Siau I | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Nevado del Huila, Colombia | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat

GVP Volcano News:

INGEOMINAS reported that on 28 October a pulse of tremor from Nevado del Huila was followed by an ash plume that rose to an altitude of 8.3 km (27,200 ft) a.s.l. On 3 November, residents of Mosoco (20 km SSW) saw collapses from the W side of the dome generate small pyroclastic flows and incandescence at night.

MVO reported that during 23-30 October seismic activity from the Soufrière Hills lava dome was at a slightly lower level that the previous week. Numerous pyroclastic flows occurred in most of the major drainage valleys and rockfalls were concentrated in the S. On 29 October, a 40-m-high spine was seen protruding from the summit. —GVP

Ongoing Activity:

Barren Island, Andaman Is | Chaitén, Southern Chile | Dukono, Halmahera | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Krakatau, Indonesia | Popocatépetl, México | Rabaul, New Britain | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)

Related Links:

More Links:

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

Other Related Links:

Recent Posts on Chaitén:

Posted in FEWW Volcanic Forecast, volcanic activity, volcanism, Volcano Watch, volcanoes, VolcanoWatch Weekly | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

VolcanoWatch Weekly [28 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 29, 2009

VOW: Nevado del Huila

Eight of Colombia’s 15 volcanoes have erupted in the last 100 years, and three of them since 1990: Galeras, Nevado del Huila, and Nevado del Ruiz.

nevado del huila
Nevado del Huila emitting ash [October 17, 2009.] As of posting more than a 1,000 tremors have been detected since Huila became restless on October 16, 2009. Photo: INGEOMINAS/Colombian Govt.

Nevado del Huila Emits Ash

huila_tmo_2009301
Nevado del Huila became active on October 16, 2009. Tremors indicating movement of fluid within the volcano, surface emissions of gas and ash, and other volcanic activity have been reported recently by the Colombian Institute of Geology and Minerals (INGEOMINAS). Towering emissions of volcanic ash have also been reported almost daily.    A column of ash reached flight level 11,000 meters (36,000 feet) on October 28, 2009. This natural-color image from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured the plume at 10:15 a.m. Thick gray ash is visible over the summit of Nevado del Huila, with a diffuse plume stretching northwest (towards the upper left corner of the image).     According to the newspaper El Liberal, ashfall in the surrounding areas was a nuisance, but not yet a serious risk to health. INGEOMINAS assigned Huila an alert level of Orange, meaning an eruption is probable within days or weeks. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Robert Simmon.

Volcano of the Week Details

Name: Nevado del Huila
Country: Colombia
Region Name: Colombian Andes
Volcano Type: Stratovolcano
Last Known Eruption: 2009
Summit Elevation: 5,364 m (17,598 feet)
Latitude: 2.93°N
Longitude: 76.03°W
Source: GVP


Huila, the highest active volcano in Colombia, is an elongated, N-S-trending snow-capped stratovolcano, constructed inside an old caldera. The 5364-m-high volcano is seen here from the SW, with the northern peak (La Cuesta) on the left and the lower southern peak on the right flanking Pico Central, the volcano’s high point. Two persistent steam columns rise from the southern peak.  Photo by Juan Carlos Diago, 1995 (courtesy of Bernardo Pulgarín, INGEOMINAS, Colombia). Caption: GVP


An explosive eruption ruptured the summit of Nevado del Ruiz on November 13, 1985, spewing about 20 million cubic meters of volcanic ash and rocks into the air. Forty-meter thick lahars traveling at velocities of up to 50 kilometers per hour destroyed the town of Armero 74 km away from the explosion crater, killing more than 23,000 people. [Source: USGS]

SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(21 October – 27 October 2009)

New activity/Unrest:

GVP Volcano News:

PHIVOLCS reported that on 28 October a minor ash explosion from Mayon produced a brownish ash plume that rose 600 m above the crater and drifted NE.

Based on web camera views, INGEOMINAS reported that on 21 October continuous gas emissions rose from Nevado del Huila and pulses of ash emissions produced plumes that drifted E. Observations during an overflight on 23 October revealed that gas-and-ash emissions originated from two locations.

Ongoing Activity:

Related Links:

FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast

Other Related Links:

Recent Posts on Chaitén:

Posted in Chaiten volcano, FEWW Volcanic Forecast, volcanic activity, volcanism, volcanoes | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »