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DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,159 Days Left
[January 8, 2013] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,159 Days Left to the most Fateful Dayin Human History
Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...
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Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Australia: Entombed by a ‘dome of heat’
Hundreds of fires fanned by record temperatures and high winds are currently burning across Australia, many of them out of control.
About 90 percent of New South Wales (NSW) was in severe danger, with “catastrophic” conditions declared in five areas: the Illawarra, Shoalhaven, the Southern Ranges, the northern and eastern Riverina and southern parts of the lower Central West Plains.
Temperatures soared to near 46ºC (118ºF) today.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has forecast temperatures of up to 54ºC (129ºF) in central Australia next Monday and has accordingly extended its temperature chart by adding two new colors, pink and purple, to allow for the extremes.
High winds and atmospheric conditions have created a ‘dome of heat’ entombing Australia, experts said.
Australia Forecast Map for 06:00 UTC on Saturday 12 January 2013 . Source: BOM
Global Temperature Forecast Map for 06:00 UTC on Saturday 12 January 2013 . Source: BOM
SH Temp Forecast for 06:00 UTC on Sunday 13 January 2013
Power Outages
“The blistering heat also caused a blaze at a nuclear research facility in southern Sydney after cabling overheated in a nearby electricity substation, while thousands of homes in the city’s north experienced power outages due to soaring demand,” said a report.
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,178 Days Left
[December 20, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,178 Days Left to the most Fateful Dayin Human History
Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...
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Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Three weather systems pound the U.S., as freezing temperatures kill/ injure hundreds in Russia
The storms have knocked out power to tens of thousands of customers across Nebraska and Iowa, reports said.
“Significant snow will impact all or parts of 21 states—five by a storm in the Pacific Northwest, two by a storm in New England and 14 by the storm in the middle of the country.” NOAA reported.
One storm is winding down in Northern New England after dropping 8-14 inches on northern Maine. The system moving into the Rockies and Central Plains will gain strength today and a new system is moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, where another 12-20 inches are in the forecast.
The northwest storm will affect parts of Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho and Montana. The New England storm has affected mostly Main and New Hampshire. The monster storm taking over much of the Plains will impact significant parts of Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana.
Russia
Hundreds of people are dead or injured, as Russia endures its harshest winter in more than 7 decades, with temperatures dipping to as low as minus 50ºC (-58ºF).
“The country has not witnessed such a long cold spell since 1938, meteorologists said, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than the seasonal norm all over Russia.” RIA Novosti reported.
Russia’s Emergency Ministry has issued warnings throughout 15 regions, as record cold temperatures are forecast to linger for several more days.
The temperatures fell to -18ºC Moscow region and -50 degrees in Siberia on Wednesday.
The temperatures will plunge to as low as -25ºC in the Moscow-2 region, forecasters said.
“Across the country, heat pipelines have broken down due to the cold. In southeastern Russia’s Samara, the cold has broken down many heat pipelines, leaving hundreds of homes without heating, including an orphanage and a rest house. Many schools and kindergartens have been closed for almost a week.” RIA Novosti reported.
“The cold spell, along with snowfalls, has disrupted flights all over the country, and led to huge traffic jams. In the southern city of Rostov-on-Don some highways were closed due to snowfalls over the past two days, triggering a traffic collapse.”
Ecuador: Tungurahua volcano
Seventy-two hours after the Tungurahua alert level was raised to ‘orange,’ the activity level remains between ‘moderate’ and ‘high.’
Tungurahua eruption viewed from the city of Banos in this AFP photo dated December 17, 2012. Image may be subject to copyrights.
The Geophysical Institute observatory reported volcanic activity as being between ‘moderate’ and ‘high,’ with regular expulsions, emitting ashes high into the sky.
The roaring sounds from the volcano is rattling windows in nearby towns, where volcanic ashes continue to rain down.
Tungurahua, (“Throat of Fire” in the native Quechua language), is located about 135 kilometers (84 miles) south of Quito, the capital city of Ecuador (Group D – see map).
Global temperature for September 2012 tied with 2005 as the warmest on record: NOAA
“The globally-averaged temperature for September 2012 tied with 2005 as the warmest September since record keeping began in 1880.” NOAA reported.
Combined average temperature over land and ocean surfaces for September was 60.21°F (15.67°C) or 1.21°F (0.67°C) above the 20th century average.
September 2012 was also the 36th consecutive September and 331st consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
2012 January-September period was the warmest first nine months of any year on record for the contiguous United States, with the national temperature of 59.8°F, which was 3.8°F above the 20th century average.
“The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature of 56.2°F, 3.2°F above average. This 12-month temperature average tied the June 2011-May 2012 period as the 3rd warmest of any 12-month period. The six warmest 12-month periods have all ended during 2012.” NOAA said.
Global Land Temperature: Second Warmest August on Record
Average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was the 4th highest on record for August, at 61.22°F (16.22°C) or 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average, NOAA reported.
August 2012 was the 36th consecutive August and 330th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
Global land temperature was 58.52°F, which tied with 2001 and 2011 as the second warmest August on record, behind 1998.
Temperature for global land and ocean surfaces for June–August tied with 2005 as the third highest on record for this period at 61.25°F (16.24°C), or 1.15°F (0.64°C), above the 20th century average.
Drought-related stress affecting 80% of U.S. corn and soybeans, causing crops failure
The January-August 2012 was the warmest first 8 months of any year on record for the contiguous United States. The national temperature of 58.7°F (14.3°C) was 4.0°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above the previous record warm in 2006, NOAA said.
Summer 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer on record for the contiguous United States since recordkeeping began 117 years ago. [ 2011 and 1936 had higher summer temperatures for the Lower 48.]
Temperature Anomalies, June – August 2012
Reds show June-August temperatures up to 8° F warmer than average. Blues show temperatures up to 2° F cooler than average—the darker the color, the larger the difference. Source: NOAA climate.gov
During the period, 33 states had record warm and an additional 12 states experienced top ten warm.
The average temperature for the Lower 48 between June and August was higher than 74°F (24.3°C), which is more than 2° F above the 20th century average.
“The average global temperature across land and oceans during July 2012 was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F) and ranked as the fourth warmest July since records began in 1880. The previous three months—April, May, and June—also ranked among the top five warmest for their respective months. July 2012 marks the 36th consecutive July and 329th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.” NOAA reported.
Drought disaster declared in 100 additional counties across 13 states
Fifteen counties in Nebraska have been declared agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by drought, excessive heat and high winds that began March 1, 2012, and continues, USDA reported.
Those disaster areas are (primary disaster areas) Gage, Johnson, Nuckolls, Richardson, Jefferson, Nemaha, Pawnee and Thayer counties; (contiguous disaster areas) Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Lancaster, Otoe, Saline and Webster counties.
Nine counties in bordering states of Kansas and Missouri also designated as natural disaster areas because they are contiguous.
Kansas: Brown, Doniphan, Jewell, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic and Washington counties.
Missouri: Atchison and Holt counties.
Drought disaster areas have also been declared in California, Nevada and Utah.
U.S. Drought Disaster Map as of August 22, 2012.
California. USDA has also designated 6 counties in California and one in bordering Nevada as natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. Those counties are Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, Mono and Tuolumne in California, and Douglas County in Nevada.
Utah. USDA has designated nine counties in Utah as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. Those counties are (primary disaster areas) Beaver, Iron and Piute counties; (contiguous disaster areas) Garfield, Millard, Washington, Kane, Sevier and Wayne counties.
Idaho. USDA has designated 17 counties in Idaho as natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by drought, excessive heat and high winds that began Jan. 1, 2012, and continues.
The Idaho disaster designation also includes 9 counties in 4 bordering states.
Montana: Beaverhead, Gallatin and Madison counties.
Nevada: Elko County.
Utah: Box Elder, Cache and Rich counties.
Wyoming: Lincoln and Teton counties.
Kansas. USDA has designated 5 counties in Kansas as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by drought, excessive heat, high winds and wildfires that began Jan. 1, 2012, and continues. Those counties are (PDA) Marshall County; and (CDA) Nemaha, Pottawatomie, Riley and Washington counties.
Indiana. USDA has designated 5 counties in Indiana as natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Ohio. Darke County in Ohio also designated as natural disaster area because it is contiguous.
Georgia. USDA has designated 12 counties in Georgia as natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Tennessee. USDA has designated 13 counties in Tennessee as natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
United States. The number of reported West Nile cases nationwide has tripled, with at least 1,118 reported so far this year, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported.
Seventy-five percent of the cases have been reported in five states—Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas—with more than a half in Texas.
“We are in the midst of one of the worst West Nile virus outbreaks ever seen in the U.S.,” Lyle R. Petersen, director of the Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases at CDC, told reporters.
West Nile virus have caused at least 41 fatalities, so far this year.
Texas has reported 640 West Nile infections and at least 22 deaths this year.
Ohio. The Disaster President has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Ohio in the area affected by severe storms and straight-line winds during the period of June 29 to July 2, 2012.
The worst affected areas are in the counties of Adams, Allen, Athens, Auglaize, Belmont, Champaign, Clark, Coshocton, Fairfield, Franklin, Gallia, Guernsey, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Highland, Hocking, Jackson, Knox, Lawrence, Licking, Logan, Meigs, Miami, Monroe, Morgan, Morrow, Muskingum, Noble, Paulding, Perry, Pickaway, Pike, Putnam, Shelby, Van Wert, and Washington.
Oklahoma. The Disaster President has declared a major disaster exists in the State of Oklahoma in the area affected by the Freedom Wildfire during the period of August 3-14, 2012.
California. California Governor has declared a state of emergency in 3 Northern California counties—Plumas, Shasta and Tehama—due to raging wildfires.
Wildfires have destroyed dozens of homes and threaten hundreds more, forcing evacuations and road closures.
Ponderosa Fire, which had already consumed about 25,000 acres, destroying more than 85 homes and other structures, was threatening the small community of Mineral, south of Lassen National Volcanic Park.
The blaze has already forced about 3,500 people to flee their homes in Tehama and Shasta counties, north of Sacramento.
The fire is threatening more than 500 homes and businesses
Chips Fire in Plumas County has scorched about 100 square miles since late July and threatens more than 900 homes.
Idaho. USDA has designated 34 counties in Idaho as natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the combined effects of hail, excessive rain, frost and freezes that occurred from Jan. 1 – July 25, 2012.
The Idaho disaster designation also includes 9 counties in 6 bordering states.
Montana: Three counties.
Nevada: One county.
Oregon: Two counties.
Utah: Two counties.
Washington: Two counties.
Wyoming: Two counties.
DROUGHT DISASTER
United States. Drought conditions continue worsening in key farm states, with 63.20 percent of Continental U.S. experiencing Moderate to Exception Drought condition (D1 to D4 on the U.S. Drought Monitor).
U.S. Drought Map – August 21, 2012.Source: US Drought Monitor.
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,302 Days Left
[August 22, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,302 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
State of emergency declared as wildfires threaten Bosnia towns
Residents and tourists are being evacuated from Bosnian towns, as raging wildfires fueled by the extreme heat and strong winds approach.
Authorities declared a state of emergency in the town of Bratunac (eastern Bosnia) as wildfires approached from 4 directions.
Residents and tourists are being evacuated from the town TouKonjic (southern Bosnia) as multiple wildfires engulf the surrounding areas.
Authorities both in Serbia and Croatia have issued extreme heat warnings, instructing people to stay indoors to avoid dehydration and heatstroke.
Italy. The Ministry of Health raised the extreme heat warning to the maximum level ‘red’ after heatwave enveloped 8 cities including the capital Rome.
Wildfires were reported at multiple locations across southern Italy.
France. Heatwave has also affected most parts of France since last week.
In southern France, temperatures exceeded 40ºC (104 degrees).
Spain. A major wildfire fueled by the extreme heatwave has scorched more than 8,000 hectares in the central Spanish province of Leon, reports said.
Fires in Spain have consumed about 150,000 hectares of wild land killing several people this summer.
Greece. Hundreds of fires were ignited across the Greek Islands over the weekend, scorching thousands of acres of forest.
Belgium and Germany have also been affected by the heatwave since late last week.
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Ecuador. Tungurahua volcano (summit elevation: 5,030 m) near Banos erupted again on Tuesday, August 20, 2012 spewing lava, ash and volcanic debris into the air. Authorities raised the alert level to ‘orange, and evacuated some of nearby residents, while advising others to leave the are voluntarily.
Tungurahua’s last major eruption occurred from 1916 to 1918, but the volcano became active again in October 1999.
Tungurahua volcano seen from Huambalo, Ecuador, Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2012. (Photo: Dolores Ochoa/AP). Image may be subject to copyright.
FIRE-EARTH estimates the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent dropped below 4.5 million km² on August 19, 2012.
A week earlier (August 13, 2012), the Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was 5.09 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles), which was 2.69 million km² below the 1979 to 2000 average extent for the date, and 483,000 km² below the previous record low set in 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
FEWW model shows the Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 3.8 million km² during the 2012 melt season with a probability of 0.7 [P≥65%]
Arctic ice cover shrank to a new record low of 4.28 km² in 2007, about 23 percent below the previous record set in 2005 and almost 40 percent lower than the 1979 – 2000 average.
Arctic Ice Cover Maps for August 13 and 19, 2012. Source: NSIDC
Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice. Source: NSIDC
The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of August 13, 2012, along with daily ice extent data for the previous five years. 2012 is shown in blue, 2011 in orange, 2010 in pink, 2009 in navy, 2008 in purple, and 2007 in green. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Source: NSIDC
“The average pace of ice loss since late June has been rapid at just over 100,000 square kilometers (38,000 square miles) per day. However, this pace nearly doubled for a few days in early August during a major Arctic cyclonic storm,” said NSIDC.
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN:1,304 Days Left
[August 20, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,304 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
[August 9, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,315 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
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Hi temps and low precipitation intensified drought 2012, covering about 2/3 of the U.S., as deadly wildfires burned millions of acres
July average temperature for contiguous U.S. climbed to 77.6°F, 3.3°F above the 20th century average, making it the hottest July and the hottest month on record for the country, reported NOAA. “The warm July temperatures contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.”
“The August 2011-July 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12-months on record for the contiguous U.S., narrowly surpassing the record broken last month for the July 2011-June 2012 period by 0.07°F. The nationally averaged temperature of 56.1°F was 3.3°F above the long term average. Except Washington, which was near average, every state across the contiguous U.S. had warmer than average temperatures for the period.”
The previous warmest July was Dust Bowl summer of 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4°F.
Precipitation in continental U.S. averaged 2.57, 0.19 inches below average.
Virginia experienced its warmest July, with a statewide temperature 4.0°F above average.
Record heat also contributed to the warmest ever January-to-July period.
U.S. temperatures have now broken the hottest-12-months record 4 times in as many months (see chart below).
The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) soared to a record-large 46 percent (more than twice the average value) during the January-July period, beating the previous record large CEI of 42 percent which occurred in 1934.
Year-to-date temperature Chart, by month, for 2012 (red), compared to the other 117 years on record for the contiguous U.S., with the five ultimately warmest years (orange) and five ultimately coolest years (blue) noted. Source: NCDC
The ten warmest 12-month periods recorded in the U.S. Temperatures have now broken the hottest-12-months record 4 times in as many months. Source: NCDC
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
U.S. Drought Disaster 2012
About a quarter (24.14%) of the Continental U.S. is now in ‘Extreme’ or ‘Exceptional’ drought (D3 – D4), a rise of about 2 percent since July 31, and nearly a half (46.01%) of the country is experiencing ‘Severe’ to ‘Exceptional’ drought levels (D2 – D4), according to data released by the US Drought Monitor.
U.S. Drought Map. Comparison maps for July 31 and August 7, 2012. Source: US Drought Monitor
New Mexico. USDA has designated eight counties in New Mexico as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought.
Nebraska. USDA has designated 38 counties in Nebraska as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Iowa: 3 counties
Kansas: 2 counties
South Dakota: 3 counties
Mississippi. USDA has designated 6 counties in Mississippi as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Arkansas: 2 counties
Oklahoma. USDA has designated 20 counties in Oklahoma as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Kansas: Cherokee County.
Missouri: 2 counties.
Oklahoma Drought Map
Oklahoma Drought Maps for July 31 and August 7, 2012.Source: US Drought Monitor.
South Dakota. USDA has designated 6 counties in South Dakota as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Iowa: Lyon County.
Minnesota: 2 counties.
Ohio. USDA has designated 4 counties in Ohio as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Michigan: Hillsdale County.
Indiana: 2 counties.
Arkansas. USDA has designated 6 counties in Arkansas as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought.
Illinois. USDA has designated six counties in Illinois as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Wisconsin: 2 counties.
Iowa. USDA has designated ten counties in Iowa as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Minnesota: 2 counties.
Nebraska: 2 counties.
S. Dakota: 3 counties.
Iowa Drought Maps for July 31 and August 7, 2012. Source: US Drought Monitor. The areas covered by extreme or exceptional drought levels in Iowa have more than doubled from 30.74 percent last week to 69.14 percent on August 7. Iowa is the country’s top corn and soybean producer.
Minnesota. USDA has designated 4 counties in Minnesota as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Iowa: Lyon County
South Dakota: Two counties
Kentucky. USDA has designated 9 counties in Kentucky as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Indiana: Perry County.
Kansas. USDA has designated 21 counties in Kansas, a key farm state, as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the ongoing drought. The disaster declaration extends to the following counties in bordering states
Missouri: 2 counties.
Nebraska: 5 counties.
Oklahoma: 2 counties.
Kansas Drought Map Kansas Drought Maps for July 31 and August 7, 2012. Source: US Drought Monitor.
U.S. Corn Condition
Map of the Agricultural Weather Assessments for U.S. Corn Conditions for the week ending August 4, 2012.Source: USDA
Europe. Watch this space!
Manila, Philippines. Authorities in the Philippines have appealed for “more medicines, blankets, mats and, more importantly, dry clothes” to help more than two million people displaced or severely affected by floods in and around Manila, as the death toll mounted.
many evacuation centers are unable to provide warm meals for the growing numbers displaced, AFP reported Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman as saying. “Most local government units do a community kitchen, but the volume of evacuees is so big they have been overwhelmed,” she said.
The amount of U.S. corn considered to be in very poor and poor conditions increased to 50 percent in the week ending August 5, 2012, a rise of two percent since previous week.
Corn Condition
The amount of corn considered to be in very poor to poor condition increased to 50 percent, a rise of 2 percent since last week, while the crop rated as as ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ fell to 23 percent, due to ongoing drought and lingering heat, according to the USDA Crop Progress released August 6, 2012.
The amount of corn regarded as being in good or excellent condition fell to 23 percent for the week ending August 5, 2012, a further decline of 1 percent since previous week. It was 60 percent last year.
The USDA statistics are based on 18 States which planted 92% of the 2011 corn acreage: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin.
Map of US Counties with Drought Level D0 and Above as of July 26, 2012. USDA
Soybean Condition
The amount of soybeans considered to be in very poor to poor condition was 39 percent, an increase of 2 percent since last week.
The amount of soybean regarded as being in good or excellent condition remained at 29 percent. It was 61 percent this time last year.
The statistics are based on 18 States that planted 95% of the 2011 soybean acreage: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina,
North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Pasture and Range Condition
Pasture and Range Condition for the lower 48 States which are weighted based on pasture acreage and/or livestock inventories, further deteriorated by 2 percent.
Very poor to poor pasture and range areas rose to 59 percent, from 57 percent last week. It was 38 percent this time last year.
Total acreage in ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ condition fell to 16 percent. It was 39 percent last year.
[Source: Crop Progress, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Report released August 6, 2012.]
“If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance I could do, I would do it.” Tom Vilsack
U.S. Drought Map – U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack, shows a map of the drought. Copyright The Iowa Soybean Association.
“I get on my knees everyday and I’m saying an extra prayer right now,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters after briefing with the Disaster President Obama. “If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance I could do, I would do it.”
Extreme drought and 19 days of triple-digit temperatures have sparked at least 15 large wildfires throughout Oklahoma, devastating communities, destroying scores of homes, shutting down highways and forcing thousands to evacuate.
Wildfires have left the small town of Luther (pop: ~ 600) smoldering.
The blazes have destroyed at least 130 structures in Creek County, west of Tulsa.
Authorities ordered evacuations in the towns of Mannford (pop: ~3,000) and Glencoe (pop: ~ 600).
Thousands of others are voluntarily abandoning their homes in Creek County as out-of-control wildfires continue spreading.
The temperature was expected to soar to 113 degrees (45°C), said the National Weather Service.
Oklahoma City tied its all-time record temperature of 113 degrees set in 1936 on Friday.
The worsening drought and soaring heat are responsible for numerous devastating wildfires in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming and elsewhere in the past couple of months.
Oklahoma Drought Map, July 31, 2012. Source: U.S. Drought Monitor
“Heartbreaking.”
Gov. Fallin, who toured the smoldering town of Luther on Saturday, called the devastation “heartbreaking.”
“A lot of people were at work and didn’t realize how quickly the fire was moving,” she told Reuters. “It’s emotional. For the children, it’s very emotional to lose their possessions.”
State of Emergency Declared
Gov. Fallin declared a state of emergency on Monday for all of Oklahoma’s 77 counties due to the threats caused by extreme heat and dry conditions that continue to affect the entire state.
Contiguous United States Precipitation- Week Ending August 3, 2012.Source: HPRCC
About 80 percent of Continental United States was Abnormally Dry or in Drought Condition (D0 – D4) during the week ending August 3, 2012.
Deadly heat is forecast to continue broiling the Central and Southern Plains through the week ‘with not much relief during the night time hours,’ as National Weather Service issues Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories across the region. Temperatures as high as 110+ degrees are expected this week.
Current High Temperature Map. Temperatures as high as 110+ degrees are forecast for this week.
U.S. Weekly Precipitation Map
U.S. Weekly Precipitation Map, July 22 -28, 2012. Much of the Continental U.S. received little or no rain during the week ending July 28, 2012.
U.S. Hazards Outlook – July 30 to August 10, 2012
US Hazards Outlook for July 30 – August 3, 2012. Source:NOAA/ NWS/NCEP/ CPC
US Hazards Outlook forAugust 4 – 10, 2012. Source: NOAA/ NWS/NCEP/ CPC
Current U.S. Drought Map
Current Map of U.S. Drought 2012. Source: U.S. Drought Portal – NIDIS.
U.S. Daily Highest Max Temperature Records set on July 29, 2012
Temp Records: 12 (Broken) + 8 (Tied) = 20 Total. Source: National Climatic Data Center
Corn and soybean prices break all-time records. Corn prices have climbed 53 percent in one month, as worst drought and poorest crop conditions in decades decimate yields in the Corn Belt region and beyond.
U.S. Drought Map for July 17, 2012, released July 19.
List of Disaster Areas Continues Growing
On Wednesday, USDA designated an additional 39 counties in 8 states as Primary Natural Disaster areas due to worsening drought, making up a disaster total of 1,297 counties in 29 states. Additionally, several hundred other counties have been declared as contiguous disaster areas.
One Way Drought
Drought is intensifying in the Corn Belt region and creeping to the areas beyond including Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, southern Minnesota and parts of Missouri, Kentucky and the Dakotas.
Drought and Deluge Double Whammy
The historic drought could finally end in an epic deluge, in which case what is already extreme stress on the topsoil would be incalculable.
NASS Crop Production Data. Map of drought superimposed on the corn production areas, July 10, 2012.
Drought Stats
Nearly two-thirds of Continental U.S. is currently in drought condition
More than 42 percent of the lower 48 states were in SEVERE, EXTREME or EXCEPTIONAL Drought Conditions (D2-D4) as of July 17, 2012, a rise of over 5 percent since last week.
As of July 17, 2012, the entire Continental U.S. with the exception of Maine was experiencing Abnormally Dry or Drought Conditions (D0 -D4) in full or in parts of the states, a situation which has since worsened due to scant precipitation and a persistent heat wave in the past few days.
More than 81 percent of the Contiguous United States was Abnormally Dry or in Drought Conditions (D0 – D4).
Drought 2012 is considered as the worst drought since 1956 and worst agricultural drought since 1988.
About 40% of the U.S. corn crop is in poor-very poor condition.
Good-excellent soybean crop dropped to 34% – down from 56% at start of season.
Some 1,297 counties in 29 states have been declared as primary natural disaster areas, with several hundred other counties designated as contiguous disaster areas.
Less than 10 percent topsoil moisture is left in South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.
Topsoil moisture in the entire Central Region is below 50 percent of normal.
Drought is expected to persist or intensify across Central Region.
About 98 percent of corn is grown within Central Region.
About 80 percent of corn grown in the U.S. is experiencing drought.
Deadly Heat Persists
Meantime, preliminary records from NCDC showed 145 high temperature records broken Wednesday and 67 records tied in 23 states: Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
High temperatures in the triple digits will be the norm for the next several days for parts of the central U.S., with heat indices reaching into the 110 degree range. Some NWS Forecast Offices have already extended their heat advisories to last through the middle of next week. Source: NWS
Nearly two-thirds of Continental U.S. in drought condition
More than 42 percent of the lower 48 states were in SEVERE, EXTREME or EXCEPTIONAL Drought Conditions (D2-D4) as of July 17, 2012, a rise of over 5 percent since last week.
As of July 17, 2012, all of the Continental U.S. with the exception of Maine is experiencing Abnormally Dry or Drought Conditions (D0 -D4) in full or in parts of the states, a situation which has since worsened due to lack of precipitation and a heat wave in the past two days.
More than 81 percent of the Contiguous United States was Abnormally Dry or in Drought Conditions (D0 – D4).
U.S. Drought Map for July 17, 2012, released July 19.
Comparison Maps for July 10 and July 17, 2012.
U.S. Drought Comparison Maps for July 3 and July 10, 2012.
U.S. Drought Comparison Maps for June 26 and July 3, 2012
Dryness and drought, exacerbated by above-normal temperatures, have been increasing both in extent and intensity across much of the central and northern U.S.Source: NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP/ Climate Prediction Center
‘If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance …’ —Vilsack
U.S. drought intensifies as deadly heat plagues regions from Dakotas to Ohio Valley
‘Dangerous and deadly heat has entrenched itself in the central Plains and Midwest with no prospects of relief in the near future,’ said NOAA forecasters.
U.S. Weather Hazards Map, July 19, 2012. Source: NWS
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for parts of 10 states and into the weekend for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Heat Advisories have been issued for parts of 19 states: South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island, NWS reported.
U.S. Daily Highest Max Temperature Records (July 17, 2012)
Highest Max Temp Reported
BURLINGTON 2S, DES MOINES, IA. New record: 107.0°F set on 2012-07-17; old record at 98.0°F dated 2006-07-17
Drought 2012
“If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance I could do, I would do it.”
USDA has now declared as primary disaster areas a total of about 1,300 counties [many other counties are designated as contiguous disaster areas ] across 29 states, as grain prices shoot through the roof due to deadly heat and unrelenting drought.
“I get on my knees everyday and I’m saying an extra prayer right now,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters after briefing with the Disaster President Obama. “If I had a rain prayer or a rain dance I could do, I would do it.”
Among nature’s extreme dislikes is the fact that more than 40 percent of the U.S. corn is used to produce ethanol.
Weekly drought statistics to be released by U.S. Drought Monitor later today could show more than two-thirds of Continental U.S. in drought condition.
By early July 2012, more than 60% of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought conditions, nearly double the area from early January. This NOAA animation shows monthly composites of D1 to D4 categories of drought in the contiguous U.S. over the time frame January 2012 to July 2012 using data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. The Drought Monitor summary map identifies general drought areas, labeling droughts by intensity, with D1 (lightest color) being the least intense and D4 (darkest color) being the most intense.
State of Emergency Declared in Wisconsin
Governor Walker has declared a state of emergency in all 72 Wisconsin counties due to drought and abnormally dry conditions extending across most of the state.
“Wisconsin families, businesses and farmers are hurting as a result of this drought,” said Gov. Walker. “The increase in wildfires due to the combined lack of rain and high temperatures is adding to the risk of major economic losses, especially in agriculture. This is a time of crisis for many people, and we will utilize whatever resources are necessary to help.”
On July 10, Walker declared a state of emergency in 42 southern and central counties.
Latest Disaster Declarations by USDA
USDA has issued Disaster Declarations due to damage and losses caused by drought and excessive heat that began in April 1, 2012, and continues in
Missouri: A total of 105 counties declared as agricultural disaster areas.
Arkansas: 5 counties
Illinois: 9 counties
Iowa: 10 counties
Kansas: 10 counties
Nebraska: 3 counties
Oklahoma: 2 counties
USDA designated ten Counties in Wyoming as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
All other Wyoming counties that would be eligible under 7 CFR 759.5 (a), already have been designated as primary natural disaster counties.
USDA designated 16 Counties in Utah as agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Arizona. The designation also extends to 2 contiguous counties in Arizona.
USDA Designates 5 Counties in Tennessee agricultural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Arkansas. The designation also extends to 2 contiguous counties in Arkansas.
Mississippi. Extends also to 2 counties in Mississippi.
USDA has designated 32 counties in Arkansas as agricultural natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Mississippi. No. of counties are contiguous disaster areas: 4
USDA has designated 7 counties in New Mexico as agricultural natural disaster areas due to damages and losses caused by the recent drought.
Arizona. Counties declared as contiguous disaster areas: 1
Latest Available Maps of Agricultural Disaster Areas in the U.S.
Map of U.S. counties declared as agricultural disaster areas under ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process,’ as of July 12, 2012
PRIMARY & CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES designated for 2012 crop disaster losses – As of 07/10/2012 – through Designation No. S3260 (Approved 07/03/2012)
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). A massive wildfire has consumed/affected about 2,000 hectares on the volcanic island of Tenerife forcing the authorities to evacuate 1,800 inhabitants of the small town of Vilaflor, as well as the residents of another village nearby, reports said.
Another large fire burned more than 500 hectares on the neighboring island of La Palma before it was brought under control on Tuesday, officials said.
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Global CO2 emissions rose 3 percent to 34 billion tons, said a new EU report today.
China emits 29 percent of global total (9.7 billion tons), while the U.S. is responsible for 16 percent (5.42 billion tons), the EU11 percent, India 6 percent, Russia 5 percent and Japan 4 percent, according to the report.
Australia has the world’s largest per capita emissions at 19 tons, followed by the U.S. at 17.3 tons and Saudi Arabia at 16.5 tons per year.
The report was released by EC’s Joint Research Center (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,337 Days Left
[July 18, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,337 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
Serious drought conditions continue to creep across nearly two-thirds of the lower 48 states: USDA
Farmers and ranchers across most of the U.S. have been affected by a string of extreme weather in 2012, as serious drought conditions in the Midwest expands north and west, further worsening the crop conditions and putting even more crops at risk, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.
“Hot, dry and drought conditions across states from California to Delaware have damaged some crops and slowed development of others.” USDA said in a news release, as the agency’s senior officials prepared to tour “Michigan, Ohio and Indiana—three states affected by severe frost and freezes in the spring, with Indiana now experiencing increasing levels of drought. In the weeks ahead, additional USDA subcabinet leaders will travel to Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and others.”
From a Crisis to a Horror Story
“We’re moving from a crisis to a horror story,” said a Purdue University Professor of Agronomy. “I see an increasing number of fields that will produce zero grain.”
Precipitation
Two-thirds of the Continental U.S. has received less than 1 inch of rain in the last 7 days. See below for 7-day and 90-day total precipitation maps.
Precipitation Map for continental U.S. (7-day total). Source: HPRCC
Precipitation Map for continental U.S. (90-day total). Source: HPRCC
Palmer Drought Index
Based on the Palmer Drought Index, 55 percent of Continental U.S. was under moderate to extreme drought conditions in June, NOAA reported.
Topsoil Moisture Map
U.S. Topsoil Moisture as of July 15, 2012
Corn Crop Condition
Corn conditions have further worsened since last week. The amount of corn rated as FAIR to EXCELLENT conditions have plummeted from 89 percent last year to only 62 percent.
Soybean Condition
Soybean conditions too have further worsened since last week. The amount of soybean rated as FAIR to EXCELLENT conditions have plummeted from 90 percent last year to only 70 percent.
Livestock, Pasture and Range Report
Pasture and range conditions: 24 percent very poor, 30 poor, 28 fair, 16 good, and 2 excellent. The rating was well below 68 percent fair to excellent last year.
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (July 5 to September 30, 2012)
Map of Agricultural Disaster Areas in the U.S. Map of U.S. counties declared as agricultural disaster areas under ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process,’ as of July 12, 2012
PRIMARY & CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES designated for 2012 crop disaster losses – As of 07/10/2012 – through Designation No. S3260 (Approved 07/03/2012)
Drought conditions have sparked disaster declarations in about 1,300 counties (1,016 primary, 278 contiguous) across the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.
U.S. drought has been intensified by the driest June in history and triple-digit temperatures on 10 out of 11 days recently.
As of last week, Moderate to Extreme drought conditions prevailed in 52.56 percent of the Midwest, and 68.39 percent of the South. Moderate to Exceptional drought conditions covered 73.87% of High Plains, 64.15% of the West and 35.46% of the Southeast.
The declaration covers 26 states across the country: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming and Hawaii.
Worsening Drought Conditions
Missouri. Worsening drought throughout Missouri has forced Gov. Nixon to ask the federal authorities for disaster declaration for all of the state’s 114 counties with the exception of independent city of St. Louis.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on Wednesday a ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process’ a USDA rule change for Secretarial disaster designations that will allow nearly automatically a county to be declared a disaster area once it is categorized by the U.S. Drought Monitor as a severe drought for eight consecutive weeks during the growing season.
Maps of U.S. Hazards Outlook
Map of U.S. Hazards Outlook for July 19 – 23, 2012, showing persistent severe drought.
Map of U.S. Hazards Outlook for July 20 – 26, 2012, showing persistent severe drought.
Map of U.S. Hazards Outlook to July 30, 2012, showing persistent severe drought.
U.S. Drought Comparison Maps for July 3 and July 10, 2012.
U.S. Drought Comparison Maps for June 26 and July 3, 2012
Current U.S. Drought Map – Released July 12, 2012.
Climate related disasters in 2012 could prove costliest in history
FIRE-EARTH estimates the losses and damage from Drought 2012 and other climate-related disasters this year could exceed the combined toll of all ‘natural disasters’ that have occurred in the U.S. since 1980.
Map of U.S. counties declared as agricultural disaster areas under ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process,’ as of July 12, 2012
PRIMARY & CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES designated for 2012 crop disaster losses – As of 07/10/2012 – through Designation No. S3260 (Approved 07/03/2012)
Drought conditions have sparked disaster declarations in about 1,300 counties (1,016 primary, 278 contiguous) across the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.
U.S. drought has been intensified by the driest June in history and triple-digit temperatures on 10 out of 11 days recently.
As of last week, Moderate to Extreme drought conditions prevailed in 52.56 percent of the Midwest, and 68.39 percent of the South. Moderate to Exceptional drought conditions covered 73.87% of High Plains, 64.15% of the West and 35.46% of the Southeast.
The declaration covers 26 states across the country: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming and Hawaii.
Worsening Drought Conditions
Missouri. Worsening drought throughout Missouri has forced Gov. Nixon to ask the federal authorities for disaster declaration for all of the state’s 114 counties with the exception of independent city of St. Louis.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on Wednesday a ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process’ a USDA rule change for Secretarial disaster designations that will allow nearly automatically a county to be declared a disaster area once it is categorized by the U.S. Drought Monitor as a severe drought for eight consecutive weeks during the growing season.
Drought Map for Missouri as of July 10, 2012. Source: Drought Monitor Archives
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Kyushu, Japan. Flooding and landslides on the island of Kyushu have left dozens of people dead or missing.
At least 250,000 people are under mandatory evacuation orders, with an additional 150,000 advised to abandon their homes.
The evacuation orders affect the entire cities of Miyama, Yame and Yanagawa.
The worst affected areas are Fukuoka, Kumamoto, Ōita and Saga prefectures.
The city of Aso in Kumamoto prefecture received 754mm (~ 30 inches) in under 72 hours.
Many rivers have burst their banks in the affected areas, unleashing deadly torrents of water, mud and debris throughout the region.
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,344 Days Left
[July 11, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,344 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,354 Days Left
[July 1, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,354 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
Kansai Electric Power Co restarted the 1,180-megawatt No. 3 unit at its Ohi nuclear plant on Sunday.
The No.4 reactor unit will resume operations in two weeks time, reports said.
Several thousand protesters marched through Tokyo streets calling for an end to the use of nuclear power, NHK reported. [Japan has a population of about 128 million.]
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,355 Days Left
[June 30, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,355 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,358 Days Left
[June 27, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,358 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
Heat in the Midwest and South could break hundreds of all-time temperature records, this week.
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,359 Days Left
[June 26, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,359 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
State of the Climate – Global Analysis for May 2012
The globally-averaged land surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 1.21°C (2.18°F) above average
The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was the all-time warmest May on record, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above average.
The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for May 2012 was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F). This is the second warmest May since records began in 1880, behind only 2010.
Temperature Anomalies Maps for May 2012 – [Source: NCDC/NOAA]
NOAA/NCDC reported 58 high temperature records broken Monday across nine states: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Wyoming, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kentucky. The temperature records included
Colorado: 31 records broken, 7 tied; highest temp 110 degrees at La Junta Airport; old record 107 in 1990
Kansas: 10 broken, 4 tied, highest temp 114 1 northeast of Hill City, old record 108 in 1971
Kentucky: tied record 94 degrees at London, KY; old record set in 1988
Missouri: 1 tie, 95 degrees at Kirksville, old record set in 1971
Nebraska: 4 broken, 1 tied; 105 degrees near Harrisburg in Banner County; old record 98 in 2001
Wyoming: 6 broken, 8 tied; highest temp 107 at Gillette; old record 99 in 1988
Texas: 3 broken, 2 tied, highest 102 degrees at Victoria tied 102 in 2009
Oklahoma: 1 broken, 101 degrees at Ralston in Pawnee County, old record 100 in 1988
Arkansas: 3 broken, two tied, highest 101 at Little Rock Forecast office and Little Rock airport; old record 99 and 100 in 1988
Fire Earth 